As I had already assumed in a post before the MSC, there was another chance this week $RHM (-1,89%) to get in the € 700 range. This should finally be behind us. It is now clear that the conventional defense of European territory must be provided by European NATO and EU countries. This was made clear by Lindsey Graham and JD Vance in Brussels and Munich. Strategic nuclear deterrence was explicitly not mentioned - which I find significant and remarkable. Here I believe in a common European capability in the medium term. The decisive factor was UvdL's announcement that defense budgets will be excluded from the evaluation of the euro deficit criteria in future. In other words, euro countries will be able to run up maximum debts within the framework of their national regulations. Merz announced today that he will implement this if he becomes chancellor.
I assume that the acceptance framework agreements for the main procurement projects will be concluded immediately after a government is formed. This includes the army air defense, which was decommissioned with the army reform in 2006 and 2012 and was previously attached to an armored division or armored infantry division as an independent support unit the size of a battalion. The task of the army air defence is to follow the armored, mechanized units on the march and in combat and to provide air defence in close range. This was covered by Gepard and Roland when I was active. After decommissioning, these were exported - the remaining stocks were handed over to the Ukraine.
With the resumption of the concept of independent large units at brigade and division level and the return to highly mobile, large armored units, army air defence is probably the most urgent procurement challenge for the Bundeswehr and its allies. This applies in particular with regard to the completely changed situation caused by UAVs and FPV drones with AT warheads. Especially with regard to a cost/benefit analysis.
US manufacturers are largely blank here, as US doctrine basically presupposes absolute air superiority in order to operate with ground troops. There is practically no mobile army air defense system comparable to the Gepard. Especially in terms of cost/benefit.
$RHM (-1,89%) Skyranger is by far the best modular close-range system, especially for drone defense, based on the GTK Boxer with Oerlikon 30 mm cannon. I leave a detailed description to the website.
https://www.rheinmetall.com/de/produkte/flugabwehr/flugabwehrsysteme/mobile-flugabwehr-skyranger
Rheinmetall has practically a monopoly in the field, solely due to this development lead and the production of all types of ammunition for the 30mm Oerlikon, which began last year in Unterlüß.
I assume a super cycle over the next 20 years, analogous to the development of the Bundeswehr in 1966-86 with production figures of up to 500 units per year for wheeled and tracked vehicles. (In the build-up during the Cold War, 14,500 units were produced by KMW and RHM without exports).
The Bundeswehr procures national and European products for the army. But here RHM is excellently positioned with Leonardo. International procurement will be necessary for the Ukraine as the industrial capacities at KNDS and RHM are inadequate from today's perspective.
By the way $RHM (-1,89%) already produces more 155mm and 30mm ammunition than the rest of the European NATO countries combined.
I am invested with just under 2% in the portfolio, but will steadily increase it if possible. I expect constant sales growth of 20% p.a. for the next 5 years.
