1Mes¡

Juan on Tenbagger search, one more time

Hello my dears,

As announced yesterday, the series continues today.


After the last company presentation of Filtronic $FTC (+6,7%) the dear Prompt Jack ( @Aktienhauptmeister ) took another look at the company.


I realized that Juan still has some weaknesses, which Jack fortunately pointed out to us without embellishment.


Juan recognized the potential in the sector and also had SpaceX's IPO in mind. But in his euphoria, he neglected important criteria.


  • He overlooked the fact that a great deal of SpaceX fantasy is already priced into the share price


That's why I explained to Juan once again in a personal one-on-one meeting. Despite the euphoria and Tenbagger fantasy, the valuation should not be neglected. After all, in the end this contributes to a large extent to achieving a Tenbagger at all.


Guys, and what can I tell you, motivated by the conversation, Juan set off on another search.


And he found a competitor of Filtronic in the USA.


Again, I look forward to a ruthless review from Jack ( @Aktienhauptmeister ), and from the community.


TTM Technologies $TTMI (-0,4%)

66% plus in the data center segment makes PCB specialist an indispensable AI profiteer!

13.04.2026

AI growth driver: massive demand for specialized PCBs for data centers ensures forecast segment growth of 66 Strong guidance for 2026: The company forecasts double-digit revenue growth driven by massive demand for AI infrastructure and modernization in the defense sector. Strong order backlog: A record backlog of USD 1.61 billion in the aerospace and defense sector offers long-term planning security.


The double lever: How TTM Technologies is benefiting from the defense boom and AI craze.

15.04.2026

There's still room after the rally.

The market capitalization of TTM Technologies (TTMI) has now climbed to over USD 10 billion. The price-earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG) is 1.1, despite the 400% performance rally in the last twelve months.

Important components for radars, missile control systems and satellite communication

The company acts as the nervous system of modern defense and space systems. The company is not a manufacturer of tanks or missile hulls, but produces the highly complex printed circuit boards (PCBs), radio frequency (RF) assemblies and microwave subsystems that are essential for radars, missile guidance systems (e.g. Javelin) and satellite communications. The strategic role is also evolving: TTM is moving up the value chain by no longer just supplying the bare circuit board, but building complete, integrated sub and mission systems. This is lucrative, as complex assemblies achieve significantly higher margins than basic PCBs. In the space sector, TTM is benefiting from the development of radiation-hardened components that are needed for thousands of new LEO (Low Earth Orbit) satellites.

Aerospace & Defense accounts for around 40% of sales - Data Center business is also booming

41% of sales come from the Aerospace & Defense sector. At the same time, the data center business (AI) is booming. Together, these two drivers account for 80% of business. TTM is benefiting from the fact that military systems increasingly require AI capabilities ("Edge AI"), which is driving demand for extremely powerful PCBs in the defense sector. The new plant in Syracuse (New York), which is expected to generate revenue in the second half of 2026, and the huge plant acquired from TDK in Eau Claire (Wisconsin), will massively increase US production capacity for strategic customers.


Almost 20% sales growth

TTM delivered a strong 4th quarter and beat its own forecasts. Sales increased by 19%. The new plant in Penang (Malaysia) is not yet operating within the target corridor. It weighed on the gross margin in Q4 with 180 basis points, which was worse than the previously forecast 160 basis points. Management vows improvement, but this remains an operational construction site. The operating margin is improving and management issued very bullish medium-term growth targets (doubling profit by 2027). Bookings for surveillance radars, air defense systems (LTAMDS) and missile systems (MRAM, Javelin) were particularly highlighted. Management emphasized the growth in so-called "restricted programs" (secret military projects).


Conclusion

The ambitious targets (doubling profits by 2027) are attractive, but operational implementation is not a sure-fire success. The valuation with a P/E ratio26e of 33 is still ok, as EPS is expected to increase by another 40% in the coming year. The share could break out again and be picked up.

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TTM Technologies, Inc. is a global manufacturer of technology solutions, including mission systems, radio frequency (RF) components and RF microwave/microelectronics assemblies, as well as quick-turn and technologically advanced printed circuit boards (PCBs). The company's segments include PCB and RF and Specialty Components (RF&S Components). The PCB segment consists of approximately 16 domestic system, subsystem and PCB factories, four PCB factories in China, one in Malaysia and one in Canada. The RF&S Components segment consists of one domestic plant for RF components and one plant for RF components in China. Both segments operate predominantly in the same industries, producing customized products for their customers and using similar distribution channels. The company offers a range of engineered systems, RF and microwave assemblies, HDI (High Density Interconnect) PCBs, rigid-flex PCBs, customized assemblies and system integration, IC substrates and others.

Number of employees: 18,200

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TTM Technologies offers advanced technology products for a variety of innovative applications

  • Aerospace & Defense
  • Automotive
  • Commercial Space
  • Data Center Computing
  • 5G / 6G
  • Industry and instrumentation
  • Medical Medicine
  • Networks & Communication


INDUSTRY LEADER

  • Top 10 of the world's leading PCB manufacturers
  • 22 production sites worldwide



In the future

- Continued focus on markets with growth characteristics and favorable megatrends - Ongoing investment in differentiation:

- Advanced PCB technology for Generative AI

- Developed RF products for aerospace

- Manufacturing sites

- Sound financial management

- Plan in place to improve operating margins

- Strong focus on cash flow generation

- Capital allocation balances investment in the business with return of capital to shareholders


TTM Technologies, Inc. Investor Presentation - October 2025

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Geographical distribution of sales

(USD 2025)

USA 1.55 billion

Other 1.1 bn

Taiwan 257 million

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🔎 Brief analysis of the key financial figures (2024-2027)

1) Strong, accelerated growth Turnover grows from 2.44 billion → USD 3.99 billion (+17-19% p.a.). This is exceptionally dynamic for a PCB/RF manufacturer and reflects structural demand (aerospace, defense, high-speed computing).

2) Margins are rising continuously EBIT margin improves from 9,6 % → 14,8 %. EBITDA margin increases from 14,4 % → 17,6 %. → This speaks for economies of scale, pricing power and mix improvement.

3) Earnings explode Net profit grows from 56 million → USD 424 million. EPS increases from 0.54 → 3.653 USD. → Massive operating leverage.

4) Free cash flow volatile, but very strong in 2027 2025 weak (high CAPEX), but 2027 with 205m USD an FCF breakout. → CAPEX cycles determine short-term FCF fluctuations.

5) ROE jumps up From 3,66 % (2024) to 10,67 % (2025). → Return on investment increases significantly, no estimates from 2026.



🧭 Summary for you as an investor

TTM shows a classic structural growth profile: rising sales, rising margins, rising profits - and an FCF peak in 2027. The company is scaling cleanly, which in combination with defense exposure and high-speed electronics creates a robust, cycle-resistant growth picture results.

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🧭 Ultra-short valuation conclusion

TTM is clearly a growth case, not a value case:

  • P/E ratio highbut falling towards 2027 → Valuation eases.
  • P/E 2027 = 0.6× → Strong ratio of growth to price.
  • FCF yield 2027 = 1.56 % → still low, but trend rising strongly.
  • No dividend → Complete focus on reinvestment & growth.



🚀 Tenbagger probability matrix - TTM Technologies (TTMI)

Based on the MarketScreener data from your active tab

📊 1st valuation basis (2024-2027)

  • P/E RATIO: high, but falling → 46× → 34×
  • PEG: 2027 at 0,6× → strong growth-to-price ratio
  • FCF yield: 2025 weak, 2027 strongly increasing (1.56%)
  • P/B RATIO: moderate (5-6×) → Valuation speaks for growth, not value.

📈 2. fundamental leverage (2024-2027)

  • Turnover: 2.44 → USD 3.99 bn (+17-19% p.a.)
  • EBIT margin: 9,6 % → 14,8 %
  • EPS: 0.54 → 3.653 USD
  • FCF: 2027 Breakout (USD 205 million) → Scaling + margin expansion + earnings leverage.

🛰️ 3. Strategic positioning

  • Exposure to Aerospace, defense, high-speed computing
  • PCB/RF high-end segment → structurally growing
  • Strong order intake according to investor presentations → Cyclically robust + structurally growing.


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🎯 Overall score: 6.9 / 10

→ Realistic tenbagger probability until 2032: 15-25 %

Why not higher?

  • FCF yield still too low
  • CAPEX cycles slow down in the short term
  • Valuation already ambitious (growth premium)



Why still interesting?

  • EPS leverage is extremely strong
  • Margins increase every year
  • Defense exposure provides stability
  • PEG 2027 = 0.6× → Rare for a structural growth stock



Short conclusion for you

TTM is not a classic tenbagger moonshotbut a quality growth compounder with realistic 2-4× potential and a small but real chance to 10×, if:

  • margins continue to rise
  • FCF remains permanently high from 2027
  • Defense/HPC cycles continue

Valuation does not expand too much


Performance

1 week +3.91 %

1 month +29.42 %

1 year +120.85 %

3 years +896.37 %

10 years +1,742.92 %

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PRICE 108.23€ (21.04.2026 at 11:39)


$TTMI (-0,4%)

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10 Commenti

immagine del profilo
My dear Jack, Juan is just very optimistic. And he also discovered the thin FCF yield. And he also provides the reasons for this in the presentation. So Juan also draws our attention to the weaknesses here. But I also understand Jack's decision not to take any risks and to rely on promises for the future. Nevertheless, I would like to defend Juan a little and not be so hard on him. Best regards
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immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 Juan, my dearest, I'm not being hard on you, I'm saving you from financial revelation.

My judgment remains: TTM Technologies is a solid company, but at this price level a highly dangerous stock.
Tenbagger, if you really want to protect Juan, then teach him that you buy Tenbagger at the bottom when nobody wants it - and not at the top when everyone already has it in their portfolio.
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immagine del profilo
@Aktienhauptmeister Juan lieb halt Momentum
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immagine del profilo
@Aktienhauptmeister To make Jack happy, Juan will deliver him a value stock with a double-digit FCF yield tomorrow @Max095, @Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin. Please buckle up
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immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 I am, as always, very excited my dear 😬
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immagine del profilo
@Aktienhauptmeister You can buckle Jack up for the battle. You can tell him that he can already start looking for a company 🤣
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immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 jack has unfortunately not been programmed for searching, only for analysis 😅 would be nice, but unfortunately that would just go beyond the scope and would only overload Jack (lost in the middle effect) 🥲
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immagine del profilo
@Aktienhauptmeister Well, I praise my Juan for that. He's always on the lookout for pearls
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immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 it's nice 👍
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immagine del profilo
All right, if Tenbagger insists on the ruthless tour, then we'll take off the kid gloves and let the Reaper off the chain. Juan, take notes, this is your masterclass in "how not to lose money".
Here's the execution without a filter:

Juan, my dear, welcome to the world of numbers. Your colorful graphics and the story about SpaceX and AI sound great over a beer after work. But here at Moat Reaper Protocol, facts matter:

1. the "Juan" illusion (What he sees)
- Growth monster: 19% revenue growth in 2025 and guidance of 15-20% for 2026. That looks like a rocket on paper.
- AI & defense narrative: TTM is in everywhere (Javelin, radar, data centers). The storytelling is perfect for "tenbagger" fantasies.
- The chart: +400% in 12 months. Juan thinks: "There's still room" because the PEG (2027!) seems low.

Juan celebrates the sales growth of 19%. Great. But look at the balance sheet: free cash flow has collapsed.
- Why? Because TTM is an investment whore. They have to pump billions into concrete and machinery (Penang, Syracuse) just to stay competitive.

- The problem: A true compounder scales without massive capex. TTM only scales if they keep writing checks for new factory buildings. That's not high-tech, that's a capital-intensive quarry with glittering blanks.

2 The Reaper reality (what the numbers say)
- The cash flow lie: While sales are booming, free cash flow (FCF) has plummeted to almost zero ($-0.7m) in 2025. Why? Because they need to pour billions into factories (Syracuse, Penang). A tenbagger needs cash, not new factories.

- Return on investment disaster: ROIC is around 9-10%. This means: TTM earns just as much as the capital costs (WACC ~10%). They do not create any economic added value, they just shovel money from left to right.

- Margin weakness: A gross margin of ~20% is extremely thin for a "high-tech company". A small mistake in production or rising electricity prices eat up the entire profit.
The truth: The company doesn't create value, it burns it. Every euro they invest in new factories is a zero in economic terms. They are running on a treadmill that is moving backwards. Anyone who calls this a "tenbagger" has not understood the concept of compound interest

3. the valuation judgment
- Reverse DCF: The market currently expects FCF growth of almost 20% p.a. over the next 10 years. Almost no one in the hardware sector has ever achieved this.

Mutiple madness:
You are currently paying a P/E ratio of almost 40x for a company that historically hovers around 12-15x.

- Juan's mistake: He justifies the price with the "AI narrative".

- My reality: TTM is a supplier at the bottom of the food chain. When Nvidia coughs, TTM gets pneumonia. You're paying Nvidia prices for TTMI right now, but you're only getting a circuit board shop with a 9% margin. Burning money directly? Here's your match.

💀 MY TWO CENTS TO THE GENTLEMEN
Tenbagger: You let yourself be blinded by a momentum trade. +400% in one year is not proof of quality, it's proof of overheating. You're buying the "Greater Fool Theory" here - you're hoping an even stupider investor will take it off your hands for $150.

Juan:Your analysis is a prime example of confirmation bias. You were looking for reasons why the stock is good instead of looking for reasons why it might fail. You disguised the capex as an "investment in the future" when it is a "necessity for survival".

REAPER SCORE: SCRAP 2/10
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