🇺🇸 The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August—compared to the expected 53,000. This is the strongest month since March, and the figures for previous months were also revised upward:
- June: from +20,000 to +31,000
- July: from –23,000 to +21,000
- Total: 55,000 more jobs than previously reported
- Unemployment rate: 4.1%, unchanged—despite a 0.2-point increase in labor force participation
- Hourly wages: +0.3% compared to the previous month, +3.1% compared to the previous year
The increase was driven by a few sectors: restaurants +59,000, municipal education +42,000. The information sector, on the other hand, lost 23,000 jobs.
What does this mean for the stock market?
The theory that “the labor market is collapsing” was recently the strongest argument against an interest rate hike.
With this report, that argument is off the table for now.
The probability of a rate hike on September 16, as priced in by the market, rose to 59.4% following the report% from 49.4% on the day before the announcement.
$CSPX (+0,08%)$CSNDX (+0,11%)$IWM (+0,28%)
Sources:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
