2G·

What happens next?

Hello everyone,

After today's (renewed) slump in Novo Nordisk, I'm wondering what your assessments of the company are.

As a young "buy & hold" investor, I remain relaxed despite the significant drop, we are still talking about a great company. But how many setbacks can still be absorbed here?

I would be interested in your opinions.

Opportunity to buy more or a sinking ship after all?
Have we reached the bottom?

Many thanks in advance!

25 Commenti

Kai@Kai16081989

I have almost 10% of my portfolio in it and am now well in the red (-40%). For me, it's still a good company and I'm convinced that positive signals will come again in the next few years. Until then, I'll take it as a big lesson and be happy about the few dividends😂

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LightningMcQueen@LightningMcQueen

@Kai16081989 I agree, do you buy more to reduce the buy-in or do you just leave it?

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Kai@Kai16081989

@LightningMcQueen don't buy any more, I've done that twice😅that's why the position is so big - looking back, I bought twice into the falling knife. I'll just leave it as it is and see if it's green again in a few years' time

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Mau@ProMau

@Kai16081989 Nice that you are so similar. I'm also heavily in the red, although it's (now 🥲😂) no longer so heavily weighted

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

Hmm 🤔 hard to say....... just wait and see 🤷‍♂️

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Keineui@Keineui

In May 21, the share price was just over € 30. In June, Wegovy with semaglutide was approved as a weight loss injection in the USA. Since then, the share price has exploded.

However, Novo still generates most of its sales with insulin (80-90%). So the current share price is now almost as it was before the weight loss hype, which is apparently over due to strong competition. Ergo, we will also see share prices below 30 again. If you buy the company for the main business, these are also "normal" prices again. Compare with the competition at a reasonable level. In my opinion, it will not go below €20.

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SemiGrowth@SemiGrowth

@Keineui but sales are almost twice as high despite a slight decline. The valuation is therefore almost half as high as in 2021. I don't think anyone expects Novo's sales to fall sharply in the next few years (analysts expect further growth except this year). So the share is much cheaper. I think psychology plays more of a role here and as soon as we see some positive signals, I can also imagine +100%

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CaYaRo@CaYaRo

@SemiGrowth 100% with what time horizon? More likely 5-10 years.
I think the hype about weight loss injections and the like is over for now. However, as a health company with a focus on diabetes, these are now reasonable buy prices with dividends as compensation for the waiting time.

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SemiGrowth@SemiGrowth

@CaYaRo I told you why. The company is half as cheap as it was before the hype. So why not +100%? The hype is more than priced out

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

@Keineui I would like to raise a cautious objection and ask you to clarify what you mean by insulin and how you arrive at the percentage figures. Novo has and is still throwing out the "normal" human insulins, or is no longer supplying them without having done the math in Germany, for example, as a large market in relation to diabetologists. It is a huge effort for them to switch to the new, albeit better, preparations. And the patients are not prepared to do this either. They have dug themselves a hole. Just today I had another discussion with my wife, a pharmacist, about Novo's development and the fact that a customer would theoretically have to take a preparation from $LLY because $NOVO B is no longer available. But it's not that easy, the doctor would have to change the prescription, but he doesn't do that because he would have to switch the patient, and there's not much time for that. They were too quick to put their heads through the wall, couldn't supply the new preparations due to capacity bottlenecks, took the old ones off the market too quickly and now they're paying the price. In the short and medium term. In the long term, they are too good to go under. The shareholders have to pay the price for the time being. I have had my own experiences with $NOVO B and still have a not insignificant position with a large loss at the moment. I have booked it out and it is off the radar and, as described in another post, is in a box where it will be looked at again after 5 years

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Keineui@Keineui

@Dividendenopi cool insights, thanks for that. As a "reader", you don't usually get anything like that. But it confirms to me that you can collect them well under 30

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DerMartin@DerMartin

Position is full. I'm not selling, but I'm not buying either.
I'll keep quiet about it now and look under it again in 10 years' time.

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Max@Divident_e

Let's see what happens

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Jo'@Jo_Wolf

Pharma is slow, always have been.
It takes guts to hold a pharma stock long.
But it pays off in general, if not through profit, through dividends.

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Chris@Multibagger

It will go below 30, at the latest when the first dividend cut comes.

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Artiskon@Artiskon

@Multibagger To put it bluntly: why should the dividend be cut? The colleagues are still doing good business.

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CaYaRo@CaYaRo

@Artiskon well, the way they are currently being dismantled (by the competition at $LLY and the 🍊🇺🇸), they will need cash for R&D

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Chris@Multibagger

@Artiskon I never call any questions stupid. You have planned and already made major investments in the development and expansion of production capacities in the belief that growth is planned. If this growth now fails to materialize, the capacities will be dead capital, leading to considerable value adjustments that will result in further profit reductions. In my view, this could lead to a reduction in the dividend. If they want to use the capacities, they will have to make expensive acquisitions. This will also have a negative impact on earnings.
For me at least, these are good arguments for a dividend cut. Of course, I don't know whether they are right.

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Schrauber1113@GordenShanway

@Multibagger I share your view that a dividend cut will unfortunately come sooner or later.

Novo was one of my first stocks, unfortunately I followed the hype of the finfluenzers and kept believing in it, but in the end it was still down 50%. 🙈

I'll just leave the share lying around so that I can always see what happens when you let others steer you....
If it does go up again it will be nice and if not then at least it was instructive

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Chris@Multibagger

@GordenShanway right attitude. And nobody is always right. But finfluencers often pretend to be. But most of them have no more idea than you or me! And the success rates in their real portfolios are no higher.

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Schrauber1113@GordenShanway

@Multibagger when you start something new, you read a lot about people who have already achieved something, even though you don't actually know anything about them. That's how many beginners fall for such people, it's stupid and often hurts, but you learn.

In the past I would have said "bor, 50% really hurts" when I look at my portfolio now and realize that I am still in the plus, I can at least say I have learned from it and the mistake won't happen to me again.

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sleuth_27@rajame

Very informative opinions, does anyone have a concrete analysis of the projected 2-3 year gains of $NOVO B? @Tenbagger2024? I am almost tempted to open a small position and then let it sit for five years as mentioned earlier. I am a beginner - long term investor.

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Walter S.@Roots

The share was never mine...

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Bubu@Bubu_98

The fat years are probably over for customers and $NOVO B investors ... 🥹

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Negan@Negan

So the study didn't turn out so well. If it doesn't meet expectations, it can be difficult to get approvals. Likewise, other companies simply have better products at the moment. If the dividend cut comes, the share price will go down again in my opinion....

Very speculative. I myself am down around 40%. But I will buy more. I am still convinced. Simply a very unfavorable run. I hardly have any dividend stocks left myself, so expanding a dividend stock wouldn't be so bad. But I don't expect a big return of over 100% or more. I think the share price will level off at 50-60 Eure in the long term. There was a lot of hype

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