6H·

Adjustment of the investment strategy

Good morning to all Getquiners,

Today I would like to share with you my train of thought and the associated changes in my portfolio...

What my portfolio looked like:

Predominance of quality stocks like Siemens, Airbus, Telekom etc.

Small part in the FTSE World

With a small weighting in warrants and Bitcoin

Now that I have studied the stock market in depth, I have decided at my age (not 20) to invest more in faster-growing and smaller companies and more in Bitcoin in order to increase the return to 20%+...

My portfolio in the future, partly already today (currently in the process xD):

Predominantly riskier stocks with higher growth rates such as $RKLB (-2,44%) , $IOS (-1,04%) ...

Increase of the $BTC (-2,51%) Bitcoin position to approx. 30% of the portfolio...

Approx. 15% of the portfolio in warrants...

If you have a few more stocks that fit into my new investment strategy, I would appreciate your suggestions freuen✌️:

I currently have on the WL

$TTR1 (+0,98%) , $VSAT (-1,71%) , $ENR (-2,23%) , $VWS (-2,5%) , $GEN (-0,77%) , ($GOOGL (-0,07%) )

Target:

20%+ p.a. & save for a future house purchase

Anyone who enjoys it can also see my portfolio with the current weightings and realize that I have already implemented some things 😁 The OS are not always up to date because I always have to enter them manually...

Could you let me know what you think of this approach?

HG Kleinanleger 😊

28.08

IOS

IONOS Group

Acquistato a 38,20 €

9 Commenti

Epi@Epi

20%pa is ambitious, but achievable.
You have presented a current selection from your asset universe. Of course, this is not enough to achieve your goal. You need defined entry and exit criteria.
The central question remains: what is your strategy?

Value, momentum, mean reversion, short/medium-term trading...? What do the backtests say?

Without answers to these questions, the goal remains a pipe dream. 🤷

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Chris@Multibagger

@Epi What do you mean by the backtests? If he bets on smaller stocks with growth, which may not even be profitable, the backtests are not necessarily meaningful.
If you do a backtest on the defense sector, for example, you won't get comparable figures over 10 years, even 5 years, will you?
I'm really interested in how you, as an expert in this area, assess this, as I've never done this for my strategy, which is similar to his except for $BTC.

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Epi@Epi

@Multibagger If you bet on smaller, unprofitable stocks with growth, then not just any of them. You will already have certain selection criteria and trading rules. And these rules will change your specific portfolio holdings on an ongoing basis. And these rules should lead you to your goal of 100k, even if you don't know today which specific stocks you will be holding in two years' time.
The crucial question now is whether these rules only work in the current market environment or in others as well. And this is exactly what you need to test if you don't want to sail blind.

Backtests don't look at whether your stocks performed well in the past, but whether your rules would have allowed you to hold stocks in your portfolio that would have performed well in other markets in the past.

Of course, backtests are only ever a look into the past. But knowing how a rule basically works in crashes and booms is better than just trading at random.

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Chris@Multibagger

@Epi Thank you for the explanation. I am very realistic and think that any backtest would say it is not possible to net 45% every year with my strategy.
Then I'm the one who doesn't know that and just tries! 😉😂

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Epi@Epi

@Multibagger I wouldn't be so sure that your strategy wouldn't be successful in the backtest.
I have also tweaked 3xGTAA in regions of 50%-120%pa.

For me, backtests mainly have an orientation function: I know which rules work under different scenarios and can estimate what drawdown and return I can expect.

For example, if 3xGTAA is still scratching the 0 line in 2025 YTD, that doesn't make me nervous because that was quite normal in the past. I know there will be months of double-digit % gains again in the foreseeable future.

I used to trade without any backtesting at all, very similar to you. However, I have come to realize that it is very difficult for me in the long term to avoid all the psychological traps that eat up profits that have been built up over a long period of time. I'm also a perma-bear by nature. But as such, you don't make lasting profits on the stock market. 😅 Most recently, I also took responsibility for the family assets.

So I switched to rule-based trading. The emotions on the stock market remain, but they hardly influence my trading anymore. This reassures me and my portfolio. 1.5-2% every month would be nice.

However, maybe you're the one who doesn't know what he's doing and still reaches his goal? With 3-30k, that's not a problem at all psychologically. But at some point you will want to minimize the chance and then rule-based trading comes into play - and the need for backtests.

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Wiktor_06@Wiktor_06

I find it extremely good and interesting. Let people talk to you who think they're putting you down. With "better take a FTSE World". Keep buying at the next cyclical low.

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Fredi K.@equity_expert_1695

@Wiktor_06 you are not constantly making losses 🤔

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Simon@HennSi

I find these positions very promising and am also saving for them. :)
$AMD $LINK $DE $GOOGL

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Chris@Multibagger

$VSAT would be my favorite. I actually missed it a week ago by €0.30 with my buy limit and it has run away from me since then. Now I'm hoping for a setback after over 70% in the last month.

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