Selection is based on criteria such as free-float market capitalization. The first round will start in October 2026, followed by annual rebalancings (next: October 2028). This is part of the broader TSE (Tokyo Stock Exchange) reform, which aims to make the TOPIX more relevant by including stocks from prime, standard and growth markets.
The anticipation of index inclusion has a positive impact on the share prices of the candidates in advance, as investors (e.g. funds) position themselves early.
An exact rank of Metaplanet is not mentioned, but it is seen as a top candidate.
Grok estimates the probability of inclusion in the index at 70-80% with the following justification:
Criteria metMetaplanet has a free-float MCap of ~300-400 billion JPY (top 20-30 in the growth market), sufficient liquidity (daily volume >50 million shares) and fulfills the TSE reform standards (e.g. governance, profitability by Q3 revenue +100%).
- Market trendsReform targets ~200 new inclusions, prioritizes growth stocks such as Metaplanet (BTC treasury as "innovative sector"). Analysts (e.g. NLI Research) see it as "highly likely" as Mcap could rise by August 2026 with continued BTC growth (forecast: USD 120-150k).
- Risks (20-30% chance vs.): If Mcap falls (e.g. due to BTC correction or dilution), it could slip out of the list. X-Sentiment is bullish (e.g. "historic moment for BTC companies"), but skeptical on volatility.
The impact would be extremely positive through passive inflows, increased visibility, lower volatility and facilitated raises e.g. through prefs.