4G·

Temporary Slowdown or Structural Problem?

Over the past few days I’ve been taking a deep dive into $ACN (-0,8%) , and there’s one question I can’t seem to answer with certainty.

The market has punished the stock by more than 60% since the beginning of 2025, yet the fundamentals still look remarkably strong. Over the last five years, revenue has grown from around $50 billion to nearly $70 billion, net income has increased to almost $8 billion, ROE has remained close to 30%, ROIC has stayed above 20%, and the company generated $10.9 billion in free cash flow in 2025. On top of that, Accenture continues to reduce its share count through buybacks while consistently increasing its dividend.

There are clearly some headwinds. Bookings have slowed, growth has moderated, and the market is questioning how AI could reshape the traditional consulting business. On the other hand, Accenture also appears to be one of the best-positioned companies to help enterprises implement AI at scale.

For now, I’ve set my price alerts at €100 per share. At that level, I believe the margin of safety becomes much more attractive, and there’s a strong chance I’ll start building a position, provided the fundamentals remain intact.

So I’m curious to hear your thoughts.

Am I missing a structural risk here, or is this simply another case of an outstanding business being punished by short-term market sentiment?

11 Commenti

Keineui@Keineui

To me companies like $ACN are the most likely loosers of AI, I consider the SaaS apocalypse less likely to happen than the end of these consulting companies who will loose a good part of their revenue to Claude and company...

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sdp_oxigen@sdp_oxigen

@Keineui That’s a fair point, and actually it’s the biggest risk I identified during my analysis.

I do think AI will reduce the number of billable hours for traditional consulting work. The key question, in my opinion, is whether Accenture can replace that revenue with higher-value AI transformation projects.

Large enterprises still need strategy, integration, cybersecurity, governance and change management. AI can generate code, but it doesn’t implement enterprise wide transformation on its own.

So for me, the real debate isn’t whether AI will change consulting it certainly will. The question is whether Accenture can adapt its business model faster than the market expects.

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AFF@AFF

Accenture has been making exorbitant acquisitions lately, which says a lot about its management. The (as they put it) big opportunities won’t come until 2027. P/E ratio is falling. It looks interesting around $115.

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sdp_oxigen@sdp_oxigen

@AFF Concordo. Uma das conclusões da minha análise foi precisamente a qualidade da gestão e a disciplina na alocação de capital. As aquisições mostram que a Accenture está a investir para reforçar competências, sobretudo na área da IA e da transformação digital.

Também tenho a sensação de que o mercado está demasiado focado nos próximos trimestres, quando o verdadeiro retorno desses investimentos poderá só começar a ser visível em 2027.

Quanto ao preço, estamos relativamente próximos. Os meus alertas estão nos 100 €, não porque ache que a ação tem de lá chegar, mas porque é o nível onde considero que a relação risco/retorno e a margem de segurança se tornam mais interessantes.

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TheMaverick@TheMaverick

I think people are really overestimating how much "intelligent" is AI.
They are attribuing to it god-like power when in reality is just a probalistic model with a fancy name attached to it.

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Yoshika 🦋.@Yoshika

@TheMaverick
When statistics go ballistic.

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jkb92@jkb92

So your margin of safety depends on +/- 10%? I bought a position over the last couple of days, some too early, some (hopefully) at the bottom. I think that there might be something right with the AI-fear, but not in the dimensions of the sell off. Dividend yield is 5% plus quit some upside with the stock price. The stock might take a while to stabilise after the brutal sell off but I think it’s rather a no brainer at the current level.

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sdp_oxigen@sdp_oxigen

@jkb92 Not really. The extra ~10% isn’t what defines my margin of safety.

I simply don’t feel the need to catch the exact bottom. Around €100, the valuation becomes more attractive to me while giving me a bit more protection if sentiment deteriorates further.

My entry price is based on a combination of fundamentals, valuation and technical structure, not on the expectation that €100 is the “fair value” or the absolute bottom.

If the stock never reaches €100 but the business keeps performing well, I’m perfectly happy to miss the trade. I’d rather miss an opportunity than compromise my investment discipline.

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Stocktective@Stocktective

I would look at it probably this way. A 54% decrease YTD in 6 months doesnt only look like a valuation compression to me (coming from great business like $ACN ) so there's gotta be something to it. Ultimately i would guess the Market maybe sees the moat deteriorating or is questioning it heavily, the numbers are still great but here's the catch the market isnt pricing past returns.

Accenture is a people business, so the assets are pretty hard to foresee and that ties up with the AI Fear. What if AI can convert Projects that had needed 200 consultans and took 2 years into 20-40 needed and the timeline only being 6-12 months? Compared with wage inflation and reccession risks (fewer consulting, weak cycle) that would hurt revenue alot shuffling profit back to the customer and slowing growth. AI also allows for more/better productivity - so who's in favor for the returns ACN or the customer?

Just brainstorming, for me the moat uncertainty would be a "stay on sidelines". I would need evidence of $ACN that the AI adaption is going well in the next 1-2 years. The numbers are very tempting but the whole picture has bleak spots.

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sdp_oxigen@sdp_oxigen

@Stocktective That’s exactly the key debate, and I think you’ve identified the real risk: not the current fundamentals, but whether AI is eroding Accenture’s moat.

What I’m still trying to understand is who ultimately captures the productivity gains. If AI simply reduces billable hours, then revenue and margins could come under pressure. But if Accenture successfully shifts towards outcome-based pricing, AI implementation, cybersecurity, data governance and large-scale enterprise integration, the business model could evolve rather than shrink.

That’s why, for me, the next 1–2 years are less about EPS and more about bookings, pricing power and whether AI-related services can offset the decline in traditional consulting work.

The market is clearly pricing in a structural change. The question is whether it’s overestimating the disruption or underestimating Accenture’s ability to adapt.

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Stocktective@Stocktective

@sdp_oxigen exactly and in my opinion since the Industry/Business is so hard to foresee in that regard - you gonna have a hard time tryin to understand it 😅
Either you feel comfy enough to build a position and be positioned or you need to wait for comformation, maybe losing out on some.

I dont really care about EPS anyway, like u said bookings and pricing power is actually very important and how the FCF evolves.

Structural change and uncertainty is poison for the market so i wouldn't be surprised seeing Accenture going down even more or running sideways quite some time

Edit:
Also in regards about outcome-based pricing, in theory the thought is pretty good and would offset a risk/uncertainty. But you gotta keep in mind this is i would say a double edged sword as you can define one.

If before you handed over the consultants and priced the hour, the risk wasn't really on your side. If you now guarantee an outcome, all the risk suddenly transfers on your side.
Nobody wants that, at least i wouldnt.
Projects can take longer, requirements can shift, tools can fail, etc... It can either become a cash cow or a complete disaster

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