1Settimana·

👀 On my watchlist since September 2025 – up 50% so far

I've had a stock on my watchlist for months. At the time, I thought it was interesting, but I didn't buy it.

Now it's up about 50%.

And right now, the thought crosses my mind:

“Darn, I wish I’d bought it back then… should I still jump in now?” 😅

I think this is exactly where FOMO kicks in.

So here’s my question for you:

🟢 Buy now, while the valuation is still attractive?

🟡 Wait for a pullback?

🔴 Stay completely away after a +50% gain?

How do you handle stocks you’ve been watching for a long time that suddenly take off?

This isn’t investment advice—I’m just curious about your personal strategy. 👇

$TPEIR (-0,79%)
$992 (+1,31%)

2 Commenti

H.S.@financial_ninja

1Settimana

Piraeus Bank S.A. — €9.90

Piraeus Bank, incorporating the latest H1 2026 results.

The conclusion is straightforward: the business has improved materially, but at €9.90 the margin of safety is still too thin for an BUY.

1. Starting point

Piraeus enters this reassessment with:

* Tangible Book Value/share: ~€6.30
* H1 2026 EPS: ~€0.47
* 2026 EPS target: ~€0.90
* H1 ROTE: 16%
* CET1: 12.8%
* NPE ratio: 2.2%
* Cost of risk: ~45 bps
* Cost/income: ~34%
* Loans: €39.0bn
* Deposits: €68.4bn
* AUM: €16.3bn, +24% YoY

Management has also raised its 2026 net interest income guidance to approximately €2.0bn.

⸻

2. Business Quality — IPIS

Business Quality Score: 74/100

Piraeus is a fundamentally different bank from the one investors were looking at several years ago.

Strengths

* Strong position in the Greek banking market
* Healthy loan growth
* NPE ratio reduced to just 2.2%
* Excellent operating efficiency
* 16% ROTE
* Strong growth in fees and wealth management
* Increasing diversification through insurance
* Much stronger capital position
* Growing capacity to return capital to shareholders

Weaknesses

* It remains a bank, with structurally higher cyclicality than our preferred compounders
* Profitability remains sensitive to the interest-rate and credit cycle
* CET1 at 12.8% is solid, but not exceptionally high
* Greek macroeconomic exposure remains relevant
* Execution around the insurance business remains important

Bottom line: Piraeus has undergone an impressive transformation, but I would not classify it as an exceptional long-duration compounder.

⸻

3. What does €9.90 imply?

At €9.90, the stock trades at approximately:

1.57× Tangible Book Value

For a bank generating a 16% ROTE, this is not excessive.

But it is no longer cheap either.

Assuming:

* Normalised ROTE: ~15%
* Long-term TBV growth: ~5–7%
* Cost of equity: ~11–12%

a reasonable valuation range is approximately:

1.4–1.7× TBV

This implies a fair value range of roughly:

€8.80–€10.70

⸻

4. Earnings valuation

Management is targeting approximately €0.90 EPS for 2026.

At €9.90:

Forward P/E ≈ 11×

For a bank with:

* 16% ROTE
* improving asset quality
* strong efficiency
* growing fee income
* increasing capital returns

11× earnings is reasonable.

However, it does not provide a large margin of safety.

⸻

5. IPIS Valuation

I use a combination of:

* Tangible Book Value / P-TBV
* Normalised earnings
* Residual income
* Tangible book growth
* Sustainable capital returns

Central Fair Value: €10.60

Scenario Fair Value
Bear €7.60
Conservative €9.20
Base Case €10.60
Bull €12.30
Exceptional €14.00

At €9.90:

Margin of Safety ≈ 6.6%

That is the key issue.

⸻

6. Investment Score

Factor Score
Business Quality 74
Financial Strength 76
Growth 78
Capital Allocation 82
Valuation 61
Margin of Safety 57
Risk/Reward 64
Investment Score 68/100

🟡 WATCH / HOLD

I would not classify Piraeus as a BUY at €9.90 under the my discipline.

⸻

7. Where would I buy?

This is where valuation becomes much more interesting.

€9.00

🟢 BUY

The margin of safety would become more meaningful.

€8.20–€8.50

🟢 STRONG BUY

At these levels:

* P/TBV would fall toward ~1.3–1.35×
* P/E would be around 9–9.5×
* ROTE would remain around 15–16%
* TBV growth would support intrinsic value
* Capital returns could provide additional upside
* Multiple expansion would become plausible

€7.50–€8.00

🟢🟢 HIGH-CONVICTION BUY

This would create a much more attractive risk/reward profile.

⸻

8. The most interesting part of the story

The structural transformation is what makes Piraeus interesting.

This is no longer simply a “Greek bank recovery” story.

The business is increasingly evolving toward a broader financial-services platform:

Banking → Wealth Management → Bancassurance → Insurance → Digital Financial Services

AUM of €16.3bn, up 24% YoY, together with strong net inflows, is particularly encouraging.

The insurance business could also provide a more diversified earnings stream, reducing the group’s dependence on traditional banking spreads.

Management’s strategic ambition of reaching approximately 18% ROTE would make today’s valuation considerably more attractive if achieved sustainably.

⸻

9. Verdict

Piraeus Bank @ €9.90

Business Quality: 74/100
Investment Score: 68/100
Central Fair Value: €10.60
Fair Value Range: €7.60–€14.00
Margin of Safety: ~6.6%
IPIS Rating: 🟡 WATCH

Key price levels

≤ €9.00 → BUY
≤ €8.50 → STRONG BUY
≤ €8.00 → HIGH-CONVICTION BUY

At €9.90, I would wait.

The business is clearly better than it was several years ago, but the market has already recognised a substantial part of that improvement.

This is precisely the type of situation where the discipline matters:

It is better to miss an upside opportunity than to compromise on valuation and margin of safety.

Final view

Piraeus is becoming a high-quality banking franchise, but at €9.90 it is fairly valued rather than deeply undervalued.

WATCH — wait for a better entry point.

Preferred accumulation zone: €8.20–€8.50.

•

Mike U.@MikeUpegui

1Settimana

If an asset meets my selection criteria, I don't really care whether the price is currently at an all-time high or significantly lower. What matters most to me is position size and risk management. Position size is the key—if you know what I mean. 😉

•