2G·

TUI trend reversal?

I have (unfortunately) been invested in $TUI1 (+2,23%) and have also taken advantage of the favorable share offers in recent years (from around € 1500 there is still € 400 left). Unfortunately, I didn't have much experience yet and simply bet that the post-COVID vacation mood would simply stabilize the company. I hadn't expected such a sell-off at the time.

How do you see the development of the last few months? Is it worth buying in to lower the entry price and take the announced dividend?

Frodo

5 Commenti

Franzl D.@Prodigium

I got in at the end of the pandemic just before the tactical "Russia dilution" (annoying in the short term, but a good sovereignty move). I have some knowledge of the sector. What has made TUI strong since the turnaround and differentiates it from the platform-based business models is the now completely vertical integration in some of its value chains (especially cruises and hotels). Coupled with clever strategic partnerships in new markets. For a long time, European companies have actually only exploited supply chains instead of owning them. However, by playing on blue oceans where these platform brokers are unable to act, they are creating quasi-monopoly positions. I therefore increased my original corona turnaround bet tenfold 1.5 years ago. Still a bet with uncritical capital from me...
TUI remains cyclical in the long term, but the undervalued price in combination with a Blue Ocean for 5-10 years (building ships!) was interesting. I plan to hold this cheaply bought undervalued share including the dividends for 3-5 years. After that I will re-evaluate. I will ignore the cycles and profit-taking until then. They are even desirable. Stable dividends mean that indices and pension funds have to buy again, which in turn drives away speculative short sellers. Until then, things will fluctuate.

It won't fall much lower than my purchase price (except in renewed pandemic-like disaster scenarios...). And in these situations, my ETF portfolio may temporarily be scrap).

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KevinE@KevinE

Without having done a fundamental analysis:

Where do you see TUI in the long term? Especially in comparison to Booking.com and AirBNB?

Sure, those who are said to be dead live longer - but do you really think that Tui will beat the market in the long term with its model (I'm not that deep into the ownership structure of the hotels, for example)?

And if not - then isn't an ETF automatically better?

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TradingHase@TradingHase

@KevinE Mein Schiff alone can hardly sink the share 😉

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Felix@Shareholder

The capital measure to dilute the Russian shareholders and ensure financial stability was a nasty move....😅
They have done surprisingly well in the past and are valued more like an airline than a travel group... I think they have room to grow - but I will never get back into the black with them....😅

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KoenigsRasse@KoenigsRasse

You definitely won't be able to avoid $TUI1 when you're on vacation.

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