23H·

Novo Nordisk 💥🚂

It feels like sitting on a train that has gotten out of control and is speeding up. You don't know whether it will derail, whether the track will end at some point or whether there will be a collision. But right now, the train has come to a final halt at a stop and opened the doors, and I'm wondering whether I should get off or stay seated.


$NOVO B (+0,5%)


For this year, Novo Nordisk expects a currency-adjusted decline in sales of 5 to 13 percent 🚩. The company also referred to the expiry of patents for its diabetes and weight loss drug semaglutide 🚩


I would still have the opportunity to get off the train without visible damage 🥺


The analysts' comments are mixed and are likely to deteriorate again significantly over the next few days, as the new outlook has not yet been taken into account.

I only have insider purchases until the end of 2025 and they do not show a clear trend.

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Fundamentally, the sale would be justified as the data has deteriorated and will deteriorate even further with the new outlook.

But fundamentally they are not bad...

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Would you get off the train or see what happens? 😀

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The train story is based on the $AAPL (+0%) H/Kack series, which I rate at this point with 5 out of 10 points. So not a recommendation. But as a $NFLX (+2,6%) shareholder, I keep a close eye on what the "competition" is doing 😎

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39 Commenti

immagine del profilo
I've left the train and don't want to get on it again. This is no longer 1st or 2nd class, but 3rd...
13
immagine del profilo
Buy when everyone is scared sell when there is euphoria😼
4
immagine del profilo
@nassimcanim if nothing changes fundamentally. It is almost certain that sales will fall and the unprecedented general price pressure will probably also have a negative impact on profitability.
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immagine del profilo
@Iwamoto
In my opinion, Novo will come under even more pressure.
2
immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 I assume that you are right. Now the only question that remains is whether I should sell immediately or set up a trailing stop at 3%
immagine del profilo
@Iwamoto
@Crash-Propheteus his 🔮 also predicted it
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immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 Yes yes.......man should rather listen to the 🔮. 👂
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immagine del profilo
@Iwamoto yes, check it out, there's been a bit of a crack but the oligopoly is still there and so is the future market. A bit bumpy but I'm looking forward to the eli lilly figures and hope that something similar will come out of it
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immagine del profilo
I am not invested here, but I would wait, nothing is as hot as it seems... What I learned here is that any step done in panic is always the worst one... In few weeks there will be another fda approval, another new receipe for obese and price will go up... Once i am in red -20% doesn't matter if it is -35.. Just breath deeply and wait.
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immagine del profilo
My dear, without wanting to make myself important. I have referred several times here to the pig cycle that I see in the sector.
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immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 You did and I took your warnings seriously. I generally avoid the pharma sector only Novo and HIMs I already had in my portfolio. Novo would also be interesting in many respects, but...
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immagine del profilo
@Iwamoto
That's why niche players are perhaps more interesting. Or suppliers.
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immagine del profilo
@Iwamoto
Nice that you take my concerns seriously 😘
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immagine del profilo
@Iwamoto
Take a look at $GILD which is rising nicely. And there are also dividends
1
immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 or $BAYN or $SDZ, if it absolutely has to be pharma. In any case, something that works.
immagine del profilo
@Iwamoto The $LLY figures seem to be good. Do you have any information yet?
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immagine del profilo
@Olli68 Bayer is still uncertain about Monsanto. $VRTX I also see a need to catch up
immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 The Supreme Court will soon decide whether the lawsuits in the federal states are admissible at all. If so, some things would fall away. The US government is supporting Bayer in this regard.
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immagine del profilo
@Olli68 I've heard that. Would be a liberating blow for Bayer
1
Unfortunately just sold all my $NOVO B with a 15% damage. Had it for 14months but lost my patience and vision to it. I believe that my money can be invested in a more efficient way... hope that it will rise again soon for the rest of the investors that stay in!
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In any case, I am glad to have sold last week and am not currently planning to re-enter the market. The money freed up was invested in the 3XGTAA certificate, among other things.
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immagine del profilo
I'm in, I stay in, and if that stock wouldn't already be at my personal allocation % limit for single stock, I would buy more on the weakness. I believe in the company, the pipeline and the management for the next 30Y
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immagine del profilo
@Jo_Wolf 😂😂😂

Good joke 👍
immagine del profilo
@Olli68 I'm not joking with money, but if you want a joke, I got one for you : crypto
1
Please get out
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immagine del profilo
You got on the wrong train. I would jump out. ⚠️
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immagine del profilo
I asked myself the same question. My decision was that I see far more short to medium-term potential in other companies, ergo exit.

I also don't think much of the management's "strange" communication style. Missing their own forecasts and not communicating this in advance. Not to mention the egg dance with Hims... are they suing now or are they doing a roll backwards? Sorry, they have a nice pipeline but the execution is not for me.
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immagine del profilo
I get out at +3%. It could be +20% two days ago but well… ill get back if it hits 35€. Meanwhile my money its better in other parts
1
immagine del profilo
I'm also thinking about getting out, I'm down 35%, luckily my position is small....can it get any worse? 🙈
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immagine del profilo
@nitroxx Yes, unfortunately. The next sell-off will come when Eli Lilly gets approval for its pill. Unlike Novo's pill, it is easy to take at any time. Much easier.
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immagine del profilo
Save yourself as long as you can and jump off.👍 This company has no profitable future. The figures will be revised downwards at least 1-2 more times this year. In the summer, $LLY comes with its tablet. A few others are also tinkering with the weight loss hype. This company will shrink back to the level it was at before the weight loss euphoria. So everything to do with diabetes, the core business. Prices around €30 are realistic and fair.
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immagine del profilo
What do I think of $NOVO B? Distance!
Then rather $LLY
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immagine del profilo
When everyone jumped on the train, I stood on the track and waved.

Joking aside, when everyone went crazy buying after the crash, my gut feeling stopped me. But if it didn't hurt too much, I would probably hold on as an investor
1
immagine del profilo
The hype for the pill was very clear, and I assume that anyone who joined and didn't take the profits is thinking long-term and not doing anything wrong. I expect the downward trend to continue and or sideways until the q2 figures, because that is when it will really be decided how many people will switch from injections to the pill, i.e. for the first wave. I think there will be enough and the share will find the north again in the short term, but I have no idea at the moment which bottom. The company is betting everything on the pill and said that it will not happen a second time with the supply bottlenecks (also a reason why the syringe did not get so much market share, because who wants to wait 2026). Still bullish in the long term, but ultimately I'm not really hoping for much in the next 2 years except that sales figures will rise and debts will be reduced. I will certainly get back in with a small position soon and, as always, drop 80% minimum before the quarterly figures. There are plenty of opportunities elsewhere and if you don't know your way around pharma, FINGER away!
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immagine del profilo
The main sales market is the USA. This market is currently very difficult and under price pressure - also for political reasons. Overall, I don't see the outlook as negative. Theoretically, the situation could improve after the midterms. I am more of a long-term investor and remain invested. However, I only got in relatively recently and the losses are still limited.
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immagine del profilo
I left the train yesterday and treated myself to $NFLX $NOW $RBRK and $HIMS instead.
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immagine del profilo
@PatienceBeatsGreed Welcome to Netflix 😎
immagine del profilo
@Iwamoto Netflix and Rubrik are new additions to my portfolio this week.
Let's see what happens.
1
immagine del profilo
Our next intel? 🤣
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