Hello everyone,
Today there is no new stock presentation, but a business idea of my own and a request for your opinion. It's about founding a start-up, lots of questions and your opinion, so let's go...
I am currently 17 years old and have developed a concept for a start-up that is to grow in several stages. I have tried to draw up a concrete plan and would be delighted to receive your honest feedback. I would also be happy to receive tips if you have ever faced this decision yourself...
Let me first present my basic plan and then my background information:
Level 1: The analysis tool
The focus is on programming a tool that uses machine learning (ML) to recognize correlations and provide precise sales forecasts for medium-sized companies.
The tool will incorporate many external factors such as weather, seasonality, inflation, oil prices as well as the business climate index, consumer climate index and Google Trends. Companies upload their sales data from the last 24 months, which the tool compares with these factors.
The result: forecasts for the coming days, weeks and months, which management can easily access via a dashboard.
- Goal: Gain 5-10 pilot customers.
- Model: In this phase, I work on a cost price basis and do without 100% external capital. The main focus here is on building trust and being the first point of contact for feedback.
-> The biggest risk I see here is the legal area: data protection regulations, etc.
Level 2: AI summaries
In the second phase, I provide companies with active AI summaries and point out demand peaks. This serves as an automated decision-making basis for personnel and warehouse planning. These summaries are sent out daily, weekly or monthly as an email or message.
- Goal: Expansion to approx. 50 companies.
- Model: Continue to be cost-efficient in order to build up reach and awareness and generate initial network effects. Here too, the main aim is to build trust and create an initial network.
Level 3: Integration
This is where the tool is integrated more deeply into the company structures. If the companies trust my tool and are already actively using it, they can link their stock levels and production capacities to my tool in real time. The system then sends specific recommendations for action - for example, a warning about material bottlenecks if excess demand is forecast. At the same time, a B2B messenger is to be integrated so that suppliers and retailers can use it to exchange information and place orders.
- Target: hundreds of companies within 2-3 years. The aim is to achieve massive time savings for management.
-> Here I would probably have to have a few employees who have the necessary technical background and can manage the necessary sales.
Level 4: Automated order preparation
As soon as trust in the tool is established, which will probably take a year or two, the agent prepares specific order emails or messages in B2B Messenger. Management only needs to approve them with a click. The tool monitors capacities autonomously and ensures delivery capability.
- Goal: rollout in Germany and other European countries with low pricing for rapid scaling.
Level 5: Agents & network
In this final level, I would like to be deeply integrated into the company structure and automate the ordering processes: AI agents communicate directly with supplier agents, conduct price negotiations and place orders fully autonomously.
- My personal goal: global market penetration within 10-20 years.
My current status & approach
I know that the story sounds a bit too unrealistic, but I want to have a clear goal in mind. My first step is to develop a prototype.
And that's why I've formed a basis for how I want to start:
- Status: I have registered for the national competition for artificial intelligence and would like to present my tool there. The advantage is that my school is supporting me and sponsoring my Claude subscription for the next few months because I'm taking part.
- Partners: I would like to win 1-2 partner companies for the first one through this competition. I think I will simply ask a few companies in my region if they would like to support me in the competition and give me feedback.
- Company: I will be 18 in the fall and plan to register a small business around the turn of the year. I've already heard that it's brainless to found a start-up in Germany because the bureaucracy is overwhelming. What do you think?
- Advantage: Since I still have two years until I graduate from high school, I can develop without time or financial pressure, at least for the time being.
Technology: I have basic knowledge of Python and some experience with websites and tools such as Firebase, Render and Streamlit. I have a MacBook, which is certainly enough for me to develop the prototype. However, I also have contacts I could ask for technical understanding...
The implementation will initially be web-based.
My questions to you:
1. feedback: am I being too optimistic or have I overlooked a crucial aspect?
2. experience: If you have already founded a company - how did you approach the first step?
3. alone: I want to start alone for now to keep full control. Does that make sense or do I already need a team?
In addition:
My friends have raised concerns with me that it could be difficult without a degree or training if the startup fails. How do you see that? I'm also thinking about using a small part of my share portfolio as start-up capital, as I see a higher chance of returns in the long term. Do you think that makes sense?
I mean, when, if not now? If I have a family, for example, I'm unlikely to do something like that.
Gemini has already motivated me and told me that 90% of my idea will fail 😁
Thank you in advance for your answers!
LG a very thoughtful small investor 🫡
