Select a maximum of 8-10 positions from this list that have the best risk/reward ratio and are reasonably valued. Then there is a good chance of outperforming the S&P 500.

Your opinion?

112 Commenti

RealMichaelScott@RealMichaelScott

1Anno

In principle, the list includes good quality companies. However, my toenails roll up when I see Palantir, Robin Hood and Roblox on the same list as Costco, Mastercard and Microsoft.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@RealMichaelScott The list includes companies with above-average corporate quality and solid sales growth at the same time - the prerequisite for long-term compounders. No Nestle's or biotechs of this world that fulfill only one of these components. No dividend-focused companies either, as the focus is on growth. Agree with you: the companies on the list can be assigned to a spectrum. Names like Roblox or Robinhood definitely belong to the weaker end because they still have to prove that they are sustainable compounders. With Roblox specifically, I dislike a few things, e.g. the high SBC, insider selling, etc. You can see them as a bolder choice in a concentrated portfolio, but they are my first picks. I have deliberately not replaced them with Visa or Meta, for example. I disagree with you about Palantir. They fulfill both criteria, but are not worth buying above €40-50.

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RealMichaelScott@RealMichaelScott

1Anno

In principle, I don't criticize the selection, because it's always subjective and there are always companies that you personally don't like.

In the case of Palantir, for example, I also see SBC as a huge problem. There is an incredible amount of dilution at the expense of the shareholders.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@RealMichaelScott SBC also bothers me. You have to keep an eye on it. However, this is not a special feature of growth companies, but a normal feature. This point alone would not be an exclusion criterion for me if I get a growth company with high quality in return.

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Konstantin@Konstantin85

1Anno

@RealMichaelScott What is wrong with Palantir and Robin Hood now? Robin Hood in particular has super-strong growth prospects and is constantly expanding its range, with significantly more trading at volatile times.

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RealMichaelScott@RealMichaelScott

1Anno

@Konstantin85 Growth alone is not a sign of quality for a company.

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Konstantin@Konstantin85

1Anno

@RealMichaelScott But we weren't talking about quality in the compilation, but about the risk/reward ratio ;)

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@RealMichaelScott You're right, but Palantir has much more to offer than just growth and a high SBC. But the nice thing is that you can invest in whatever you want and don't have to chase after everything.

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RealMichaelScott@RealMichaelScott

1Anno

@Konstantin85 If you are talking about a good CRV in the long term, I can think of much better values. That's not a criticism, just my subjective assessment. Just as the original comment was a purely subjective assessment on my part. Fortunately, you can invest in whatever you want and I can invest in whatever I want 🤓

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HardCodedCoder@HardCodedCoder

1Anno

@thewolfofallstreetz hi :) i am relatively new to trading, may i ask you what is meant by high SBC, insider selling etc?

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RealMichaelScott@RealMichaelScott

1Anno

@equity_enthusiast_1935 Stock-based compensation, i.e. how much the company issues in employee shares. This can lead to shareholder dilution and the number of shares outstanding then increases.

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N@Khlmysee

1Anno

Why Tesla? Honestly, I don't believe in their story. The big hype is over.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Khlmysee In my view, the risk/reward ratio for Tesla has become attractive again. Based on my DCF model, I think it is currently fairly valued. If you don't have the confidence in the story, then it's legitimate to look around for other investments. There are plenty of other top companies on the list.

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Pandamona@Pandamona

1Anno

Not long, but it can be very worthwhile for trades.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Pandamona That anyway. But I have learned that only long-term investments in top companies work for me in a predictable way.

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Cash B.@Lumimyrsky

1Anno

Never underestimate the Elon fanboys. Even if Tesla were to file for bankruptcy, they would still buy

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Lumimyrsky Helpful commentary, keep it up

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Andreas M.@thor88

1Anno

@Khlmysee I agree with you...People can buy chinese cars these days which are much cheaper and better equiped while they are improving their service capabilities across the globe.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@thor88 I agree, but Tesla is not about selling cars. It is one component of their changing business model.

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N@Khlmysee

1Anno

@thewolfofallstreetz, in any other part there are better competitors.

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Andreas M.@thor88

1Anno

@thewolfofallstreetz Corect but if you don't sell it's useless...

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Khlmysee With similar economies of scale, pace of innovation, R&D efficiency and 36b USD in the bank?

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batic420@batic420

1Anno

Great list! 😎
I will definitely have a look at one or two companies. However, I think $TSLA and $PLTR, for example, are less suitable for this.

But as you already mentioned - 8-10 are enough to have a solid portfolio, so you can simply do without both stocks here 😄

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@batic420 In my opinion, Palantir will only become interesting again from €50, Tesla is already fairly valued in my opinion. But there are enough other good risk/reward opportunities on the list.

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T.@Investorjunkie

1Anno

$INTU and $PLTR I have already bought more 👍🏼 but I still prefer $NOVO B to $HIMS, for example
I also think $SAP has sunk unjustly, it is slowly returning to a fair valuation, what do you say?

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@small Interesting. At Palantir at these prices? I can understand you with Hims & Hers. Novo is the variant with less risk, but I already have enough of this profile on my list. SAP's growth in sales and cash flow is too slow for me, so it's not in my sweet spot between above-average company quality and solid sales growth in a growth market.

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Soprano@Soprano

1Anno

Use it to buy Microsoft, a bit of Shopify and a lot of Trade Desk. Although with the latter I get the feeling that it will ruin me one day 🥴

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Soprano At Trade Desk it's time for the CEO to buy shares and put a stop in ;-) RSI is now at 16 and getting more interesting every day, especially when I look at the fundamentals.

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Rick Moyer@Rick

1Anno

I'm out of Tesla for now. Elon is out of his mind

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Rick Why? What specifically bothers you?

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Rick Moyer@Rick

1Anno

@thewolfofallstreetz Don't you read the news? Followed him on X until yesterday and WOW...so much bullsh*t.

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Konstantin@Konstantin85

1Anno

@Rick "Elon is out of his depth" every Leftie every time :D

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Rick Moyer@Rick

1Anno

@Konstantin85 am far from being a Lefti. Doge is a great idea, but Elon is completely flinching. Be it Ukraine, the press, European politics, etc.

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Konstantin@Konstantin85

1Anno

@Rick I wasn't serious about Leftie. But the guy is great. I also have to agree with him about Europe. Especially with regard to Germany. The only thing that is completely out of hand is Merz.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Rick Of course he doesn't tick normally. Can you expect that from a person who will probably only exist once in 100 years? But I have a different perception. 20% is definitely garbage (and can be ignored) and he's not wrong about 80%. Besides, everyone can say what they want. Whether you think it's good or bad.

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Rick Moyer@Rick

1Anno

@thewolfofallstreetz was almost an elonfanboi until recently. But now the genius has seamlessly drifted into insanity. Many of his posts are untrue. The 20% nonsense destroys trillions in value

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Kristian D.@KDH-Invest

1Anno

Add $SPGI to the list

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@KDH-Invest I prefer Moody‘s , but I get your point

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Krush82@Krush82

1Anno

I even have a much better approach. Reduce the list to 10 stocks and always invest in the top 2 stocks with the highest momentum and you will beat the s&p 500 by a factor of 5 since 2000 😉

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Krush82 I said that you should limit yourself to a maximum of 8-10 positions. The top 5 can already account for 80%. Would you like to explain and specify your strategy in more detail?

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Krush82@Krush82

1Anno

@thewolfofallstreetz Unfortunately, I can't go into that much detail here. It's too valuable for that. Coca Cola doesn't publish its cola recipe and Mr. Crabs doesn't reveal the recipe for the crab burger to Plankton either ;-)

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Krush82 All right, Warren.

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

1Anno

Unfortunately 24x red tonight 🚦

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Cato_Bamboo So much the better. I have trained myself to only buy on red days. In the long term, nobody cares about today.

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

1Anno

@thewolfofallstreetz Then you have a perfect day today 😉

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Michey777@Michey777

1Anno

Today $SESG was completely liquidated with a return of almost 100% and invested in $TTD $KKR and $MC:)

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Michey777 At least there's one on the list ;-) The CEO of Trade Desk should start buying shares in his company and not just selling them. RSI now at 16.

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Michey777@Michey777

1Anno

@thewolfofallstreetz There is nothing more to add. Can't buy the whole list :) but it's amazing how some stocks have come back. The Nasdaq is only down 11% this year.

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Michey777@Michey777

1Anno

@thewolfofallstreetz $HOOD was an alternative but then became $KKR. Always wanted to go there, but never came back...

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Michey777 The divergence is quite striking. On my watch list, 65% of the companies have fallen by >25% from their last 52-week high, while the indices have fallen by just 10-12%. We are simply being presented with beautiful bargains again.

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Michey777@Michey777

1Anno

@thewolfofallstreetz I agree with you. Just look at $HOOD alone. They actually presented phenomenal figures (in February) and have fallen almost 50% since then.... Of course, you also have to factor in another run after the Trump election... It wasn't a fundamental development. But $BRK.B will be pleased, I think someone will go on a shopping spree this year.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Anno

@Michey777 You have to see it in context. Many shares previously ran extremely high, sometimes detached from their fundamental development. The current phase is called "risk-off". This is why these stocks are correcting first and also much more sharply. As always, it goes both ways.

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Seventrader@7Trader

1Anno

Where is China in the list?

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nassimcanim@nassimcanim

1Anno

opinion on $WMT

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Das Portfoliopferd@Portfoliopferd

1Anno

$WING $BKNG $FTNT perhaps also interesting.

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StoicPicker@StoicPicker

1Anno

$SPGI > $MCO: better diversification in the product segments with just as strong a moat and higher growth.
Alphabet, Meta and Uber not in the list could almost be seen as a gross crime. Especially Alphabet with sub 20PE but expected FCF CAGR of 17% over the next 5 years is a no brainer

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Adam@Pe6ehod

1Anno

Thank you for sharing.
What about diversification? Selected companies should not be from the same sector, right?

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Konstantin@Konstantin85

1Anno

Trade Desk, Hims & Hers new in the portfolio. Tesla comes in on Monday with Robin Hood. Had to dig into Robin yesterday and still see a lot of growth in the future.

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ViGr@ViGr

1Anno

I took advantage of the dip at Costco and got in at €850

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financer_1868@financer_1868

1Anno

Thank you Thanks!

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