6Mes
AirBNB and Tesla via Alphabet? I don't know 😬
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@VinTech Meta and Alphabet deserve a place in the top 30
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@VinTech Airbnb has tripled since the beginning of 2020 (before the pandemic), based on the valuation when it was not yet listed. 3x in 5 years is a top investment. Any other opinion?
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6Mes
@thewolfofallstreetz I see in the chart that AirBNB has been very volatile since 2021 and is well below the AZH. The performance is catastrophic for this type of company. Problems are the big competition and increasingly strict regulation everywhere. Take a look at what Booking.com did in the same period. In the beginning I found AirBNB very exciting as an investment case, it worked well initially, but in the meantime this case is no longer working at all and (as of now) I don't see anything where new great fantasy is supposed to come from 🤷🏻♂️
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@VinTech Don't be blinded by the share price since the IPO. The share was hopelessly overvalued at the time - it was trading at 37x price/sales. It has now taken a few years to grow into the valuation. Sales have almost doubled since 2021, gross margin is robust and slightly up, operating profit margin is up strongly (showing positive operating leverage), free cash flows have also doubled (>40% FCF margin, making it one of the most profitable listed companies) and they have bought back shares, further increasing free cash flow per share. New services will be launched in May. They will start with Experiences (not only for travel, but also in the home city), which can easily become a 2-4 billion business. Airbnb also wants to become more than just a platform for short-term rentals. Plans and possibilities include advertising (easily a 1 billion business), additional services for guests and hosts (e.g. networking with craftsmen, designers), flights, rental cars/boats, concierge services (restaurant reservations, food delivery, airport transfers), community/social+ (networking with other local travelers), loyalty program (monthly subscription for frequent travelers with comprehensive benefits, e.g. discounts, exclusive accommodation, premium customer service, access to gyms, etc.). In my view, the issue of regulation is overrated. It has been proven that bans do not lead to better provision for the population and even to higher accommodation prices, as can be seen in New York. In addition, major events such as the Olympic Games in Paris would not have been possible without Airbnb. Airbnb is therefore more of a partner than an opponent for cities, as it generates high additional income for the city and local businesses through tourism.
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6Mes
@thewolfofallstreetz I can agree with most of what you have said and will continue to observe it and see which of your theses work out or are too optimistic. The only point I disagree with is the conflict with the cities. On the one hand, you have the problem that you are a major competitor to hotels and at the same time you are making the housing market scarcer, which is already a disaster in many places in large cities. The cities even have to intervene because otherwise you'll have far too many empty vacation apartments everywhere 🤷🏻♂️ but if they open up so many new business areas, that shouldn't be a problem
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@VinTech If the stock continues to fall, it will soon offer a very good risk/reward ratio and a natural bottom because they are one of the most profitable companies in the world. I'm not saying they are a 10x in 5 years. The growth in the core business is slowing. You have to watch how that develops. The management now wants to accelerate growth again and I think there is enough potential for that, as I described above. So from the summer onwards, they will have to prove that they can execute. The nice thing is that through operating leverage and buybacks they can grow free cash flow per share much faster than revenue (similar to FICO or MSCI). Rents are up 3.5% in NYC and hotel prices are up 7% since Airbnb was banned. In Paris, Airbnb accommodations have gone from 100k to 150k. So I think the case in NYC is an outlier and will remain so as Airbnb sits down with the cities and wants to find a solution that benefits the cities. Most of the time it's also a few bad actors who commercially rent out several dozen apartments as Airbnb. That's not the basic idea of Airbnb and that's not what Airbnb wants. If regulation were such a big problem, then growth would have to collapse - and so far it hasn't.
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