1Settimana·

What's next? The divis are great, but the price.....

$OXLC (-1,66%) Oha....am a little undecided about the share price performance here. It looks more than gloomy at the moment, even if the majority of analysts here are currently formulating a STRONG BUY, with a target price of between $4.5 and $4.8 I certainly won't be selling, but the question arises as to whether we shouldn't increase the existing 1800 to 2K at this price... What do you think? I've been here for several years.

7 Commenti

N@Khlmysee

1Settimana

"OXLC's share price decline is the result of a combination of fundamental business issues, a challenging market environment for CLOs and structural weaknesses in the business model. Continued NAV erosion, repeated dividend cuts and the need for a reverse stock split signal serious financial challenges. While the high dividend yield may seem tempting for income-oriented investors, it is based on unsustainable cash flows and carries significant risks for long-term investors."

Absolutely a falling knife for me. Sounds like a total loss, sooner or later. The actual business doesn't seem to be working in that form anymore.

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Matthias@ZaphodB

1Settimana

@Khlmysee I think the falling knife is a little too black. I'm just not going to add any more at the moment, even if the EKK is rather tempting here. Analysts are predicting a recovery to $4.x again in 2026 - pretty unanimously. The competitors are currently struggling with the same development - more or less. I think patience will be the method of choice here - and close observation of developments here - although I have a manageable number of 1800 shares, I don't think it would be a good idea to sell them at an EK of just under 4 euros. But neither would the aforementioned "FrankimHarz" with his very dedicated and documented numerical analysis. I have reduced a few other stocks, e.g. Whithorse Finance (where the effect is even more blatant) and switched to BlackRock Capital (BCAT). Pay similarly good returns. But not without risk either.

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N@Khlmysee

1Settimana

@ZaphodB Matthias, I understand that you see potential in OXLC, but let's be honest - that sounds a lot like confirmation bias. You're obviously only looking for the information that supports your belief and ignoring the red flags. This is a classic cognitive error where you don't want to acknowledge things that don't fit your own picture.

"If you only have a hammer, you see nails everywhere"

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Matthias@ZaphodB

@Khlmysee Thanks for the honest assessment, I'm trying not to do exactly THAT. But one alternative would simply be to sell the existing 1800 shares at a drastic loss -- in view of analysts' opinions to the contrary, it's hard to bring oneself to do that. If they were just as negative - I think I would at least reduce drastically. Incidentally, I have already done that with Whithorse Finance. Only HERE I'm just not so sure. But I will definitely keep a very close eye on everything - and try to jump out before the real pain threshold is reached, IF necessary. To be honest, some of the information from the company's environment does give me some hope. For example, that some internal investments are now generating income that is not yet available (stupid formulation, I know) But - yes - caution is advised, no question.

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John@Transporter

1Settimana

Search for Frankimharz on youtube these days. He is a high yield investor and he follows Oxford Lane, among others, very closely and is also invested there. He prepares all the quarterly figures and has a great understanding of the companies he is invested in. After watching the video, you will be able to form a very good opinion.

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Matthias@ZaphodB

1Settimana

Perfect, many thanks for the tip.

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Matthias@ZaphodB

1Settimana

I found the video by "FrankimHarz" quite enlightening - it actually only confirmed my previous assessment of the situation:
- don't panic, we are back on the road to a potential recovery, so far this is in line with the analyst reports
-buy more - you could, but I will not do so at the moment, but wait and see - which is also "Frank's" recommendation
-Sell - no - at best reduce a little, if short and development imply this
-Reverse split, planned for September - has no impact on the financials - 5 shares become one, price and share price are simply added together.
-Dividend cut in the 4th quarter by 1 cent (before split) - can be lived with in view of the current dividend yield.
CONCLUSION for ME personally: dividends will have to flow for a few more years to really get back into the profit zone - so I will hold if nothing else happens.

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