#bitcoin started 2026 on a more solid footing, recovering strongly after a difficult end to last year. Prices rose back above USD 93,000 last week, reflecting a combination of improved macro sentiment and a renewed increase in institutional inflows. After a late 2025 characterized by consolidation, ETF outflows and positioning fatigue, the reversal at the start of the year suggests fresh capital is flowing back into the market as investors rebalance portfolios and adjust to a potentially more supportive policy environment.
After a strong start, Bitcoin ETFs see a new wave of outflows
Inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned positive, at one point exceeding $1.5 billion year to date, including a single day inflow of $825 million early last week. This reinforced the view that allocator demand remains intact despite the recent volatility. However, inflows reversed sharply on Wednesday and Thursday, with outflows in excess of $1 billion. This appears to have been triggered by concerns over a potential supply overhang after vague reports suggested Venezuela was holding up to USD 60 billion worth of Bitcoin. We believe this scenario is unlikely, based on a closer assessment of the underlying sources and on-chain data. In addition, macroeconomic data has generally been stronger than expected, slightly reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in March and likely putting further near-term pressure on prices. (Author: James Butterfill, CoinShares' Head of Research)
