1Wk·

BigTech: Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia account for almost 50% of the S&P 500's YTD return

The W. · 2025-08-11T11:34:06.130933Z

$META $MSFT $NVDA Don't bet against BigTech, right?

$META (+1.22%)

$MSFT (-0.35%)

$NVDA (+0.78%)

Don't bet against BigTech, right?

6 Comments

Shrimpman@Shrimpman

1Wk

Historically, this has always been a problem when there has been such a composition

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Epi@Epi

1Wk

@Shrimpman Correct. There have been constellations like this before: 1929, 1970, 1999 - we know what followed in each case. 🥶

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@Epi Basically correct, but this time the focus of all the big companies is more or less on AI! I think there's still a few years to go, but in the end none of us know 🔮😉

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Wk

@BavarianLion https://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1954212933258322340

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Mo@BigMo

1Wk

@Shrimpman In my opinion, the situation is fundamentally different today.

According to Morgan Stanley, in 2023 the top 10 of the S&P 500 had,
~69% economic profit at ~27% index weight.
Now the index weight is closer to 40%. There are apparently no updated figures on economic profit yet, but it will still be very high!

During the dotcom bubble, many companies in the top 10 were less profitable and more highly valued.
To the dotcom top (Feb 2000): The top-10 had a median P/E ≈ 60
Mid-2025 (12M forward P/E ratio): ≈ 25 for the top 10

For comparison: S&P 500 total forward P/E ratio ~22.2 (July 2025).

In my opinion, there is no reason to worry here as long as the top 10 continue to make such good money.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Wk

@BigMo That is precisely the point. The amount of the share per se is irrelevant. Ultimately, it is about whether the respective share is covered by the profits / cash flows.

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