Trump genius or madness

Testo-Investor · 2025-04-09T09:35:48.135802Z

HE IS BACK! I wanted to speak up again and what better topic than one that divides the population like our current government, namely TRUMP! As an avowed Trump fan and of course also an AFD voterI also have to shake my head a little at the moment. But if you delve a little deeper into the matter, you quickly realize that this guy is an absolute economic genius for the following reasons: He is causing a massive redistribution of money on the stock market - poor to rich He is putting pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates He is ensuring that more money flows back into government bonds, making the repayment of debt "cheaper for the USA". In particular, he is also pumping the crypto market so that the big players can continue to fill their bags "cheaply". He is putting pressure on countries to negotiate new deals, whereby the USA will of course also emerge as the winner in the end. Of course Trump is very extreme in all areas, BUT he is doing everything for the USA... In the short term it looks bad for the US, but don't you think that even after a certain recovery the US will emerge as a massive winner and the rest of the world as a big loser! Hence my verdict. An absolute genius! p.s. of course I could be wrong, but the next few months will show! How do you see it ? am I already completely crazy or is there some truth to it? :)

Jan@Barrd

1Settimana

But none of it works. The Japanese and the Chinese are fucking the US bonds and the plan has failed.

Americans are currently losing their pensions by the dozen.

The higher inflation caused by the tariffs (and the inevitable price increases that come with them) is heating up inflation and the Fed has to raise interest rates rather than lower them.

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@Barrd yes I'm right there with you and there's no question that inflation will be fueled... why are Americans losing their retirement savings ? Because the stock market is correcting ?

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Jan@Barrd

1Settimana

@Testo-Investor Exactly! The Americans have a lot more money in equities than we do here. And of course that is currently disappearing into thin air...

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@Barrd yes well, but that's nothing unusual .... I still see it as a normal correction and at the end of 2025 we will see further highs ... summer slump is coming now and then September power again

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Oleg@ScorpionfromBW

1Settimana

@Barrd But you don't take into account the fact that the pension plan of the Americans, the 401k you mean, has also generated the capital over the entire working life of roughly 40 years? Now take a look at the S&P 500 table for the last 40 years and zoom out

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Jan@Barrd

1Settimana

@ScorpionfromBW Yes, of course, but you have to imagine it like this. You're in your late 30s, you've just managed to pay off your lousy student debt, you've finally got a job and you've managed to put something aside for the last two/three years.

Or maybe you've put something aside to pay off your debts, mortgage, etc. And now it's all completely gone. Within a week...

America is not as relaxed and easy as here. Nobody helps you with problems. It's pure capitalism, every man for himself. And if you can't pay, they don't give a shit. You just get more debt pushed on top of it

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Jan@Barrd

1Settimana

And of course the market always goes up in the long term. But you both know that yourselves. It always hurts to see your losses. And if you actually need the money (like in America). Yes, then goodbye 😂

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Oleg@ScorpionfromBW

1Settimana

@Barrd and their nest egg is recommended precisely for such cases. But it looks like they don't have that in America if they have to pull the money out of the market 🤷

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Konstantin@Konstantin85

1Settimana

@Barrd achso. that's why Japan is negotiating with the USA :D

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investment_guru_1426@investment_guru_1426

6G

@Barrd Trump can only blow hot air and line the pockets of the rich with the necessary change now. What he and his henchmen are doing is absolutely shameless.

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Settimana

For the simple-minded, this may make sense and work, but the real global economy is not as simple as Donald's brain. If he doesn't give in, it will break even his neck. A trade war has always been a lose-lose proposition. But as you learn from history, some don't learn from history 😂

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@TomTurboInvest But perhaps the simple method is working right now.... He is crazy, of course, and risks a lot and maybe his country will be rewarded

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Settimana

@Testo-Investor We will see. Donald can try to manipulate his colleagues, the Senate, Congress and the population by spamming them with false statements or fake news, according to the motto, just repeat it often enough and it will eventually become true. Or he really doesn't get it. But he can't manipulate the market, and you can see the effects of his "great" actions. As an entrepreneur, the majority of his businesses have failed, one bankruptcy after another, his ancestors' money burnt. This is not a success story, it will turn out similarly for America 🤷🏽‍♂️

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@TomTurboInvest yes, but if you repeat something often enough, you will eventually believe it yourself and he will certainly do the same

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Settimana

@Testo-Investor Maybe, but then you shouldn't keep repeating nonsense or demonstrable lies🤪😂

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Settimana

@Testo-Investor na buum - what do you say to your idol now? It must have been difficult for him to finally have to do what hedge fund managers and the industry officially demanded of him on Monday. I would have given him one or two more days, but it has already been made clear to him that this is political suicide 🤷🏽‍♂️

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@TomTurboInvest embarrassing and as of today no longer my idol! Ridiculous

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Robert@Baraccus

1Settimana

@TomTurboInvest I would be interested to hear what you have to say about our current and past government.

Btw only countries that did not impose counter tariffs got the 90 day break. He rewarded you good guys ;)

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Settimana

@Baraccus Every nation has the government it deserves. When I look at the many critics and complainers here, among others, then the question arises as to whether this attitude hasn't also led to our situation? But of course it's easier to just moan and blame the government instead of doing it yourself!

BTW - not true, only China was exempted, the next big strategic mistake by Trump 🤷🏽‍♂️

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Robert@Baraccus

1Settimana

I agree with you... As elected so delivered in Germany... However, the CDU has clearly lied to its conservative voters and is now following the path of the SPD and other left-wing parties. See the coalition agreement etc. Anyone who has watched Merz politically in recent years has expected this and not voted for the CDU.

Btw. right. China will not get a tariff break. That's the essence of my statement. He said " tariff suspension for the non-retaliating countries"

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TotallyLost@TotallyLost

1Settimana

Let's summarize:
Because you're a Trump supporter, everything Trump does is good....

Try not being a fan. And ask yourself the question, would you like the same policies if someone else did them... 😉

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@TotallyLost No, that's not what I meant. I am also slightly surprised ... but it will turn in the right direction for the usa and the stock market

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TotallyLost@TotallyLost

1Settimana

@Testo-Investor Yes, I think so too, but for different reasons.
My bull case:
Trump will roll back the tariffs OR he will lose his majority in the 2026 midterms and get nothing through the Senate.
Everything will then be reversed by 2028 at the latest.

I don't think the citizens will swallow the higher prices. Don't forget that DJT was elected to bring down inflation.

Or to put it another way:
It's the economy, stupid
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_economy,_stupid

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Aktienfreund@Aktienfreund

1Settimana

I think Trump has also come under some pressure. Of course, it doesn't look like that to the outside world.

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emyl@stonkswemil

1Settimana

I hope that's irony

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

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@stonkswemil no Testo stands by his words and is not a soft flute like the rest of society :-) like it or not, I can live with it

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Robert@Baraccus

1Settimana

@stonkswemil It's a clean attitude from him and a real rarity these days. Of course, the "cancel culture" doesn't like that.

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TotallyLost@TotallyLost

1Settimana

@Baraccus Exactly these stupid economists who all say that it is complete madness are canceling everything again.

And then there are all the left-wing green-soiled analysts from Goldman Sachs, JP, Apollo Global (...)

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@Baraccus thanks Robert, but of course I really like to provoke people because this whole system really gets on my nerves....

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Robert@Baraccus

1Settimana

@Testo-Investor I can understand that, it's the same for me.

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Robert@Baraccus

1Settimana

@TotallyLost Was I talking about economists? Was I talking about business administration? It's about society running after the "current thing" like lemmings. I didn't know pink horses were so sensitive.

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TotallyLost@TotallyLost

1Settimana

@Baraccus 1. economists have studied economics, business economists are business economists.

2. the DJT people are also just running after their savior.
It's exactly the same lemming behavior only with an orange Oberlemming instead of a green one. 😅

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Robert@Baraccus

1Settimana

@TotallyLost Where did I claim that they had studied business administration? You keep going on like this.

I don't follow anyone either. In addition to my job, sport and my family, I spend a lot of time looking at what's happening around the world.

Incidentally, from pretty much every source I can get my hands on and as diversified as possible. I try to use my brain.
I keep noticing that a lot of people prefer to adopt opinions and when you start talking to them, they often have no real arguments... Then it's canceled...

I have my opinion and I don't follow Trump, the Greens or the Reds... But it's entertaining how certain people keep getting upset about it and try to sort you into certain corners. All the best to you.

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TotallyLost@TotallyLost

1Settimana

@Baraccus Did I talk about you at any point?
I just realized that there are also oragen lemmings and not only woke...

Didn't realize monkeys in suits were so sensitive.

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Robert@Baraccus

1Settimana

@TotallyLost Your name says it all.

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Markus@_xempex_

1Settimana

I still don't see the USA coming out of the rounds as the absolute winner. The whole tariff issue is based on lies, scaremongering and deliberate misstatements. And even with the tariffs, I think it's totally unrealistic that countless companies will go back to the US. For one thing, even with tariffs, the costs in Vietnam, China etc. are significantly lower, and hardly any Americans will stand at a sewing machine or on an assembly line for the money they earn there. And nobody will buy iPhones or T-shirts and shoes produced at US wages. Especially as the USA has almost full employment and the cheap workers (= migrants) are being deported en masse.
Nobody will set up companies if they have zero planning security. Who knows what Trump will do next. If the tariffs are abolished again in the event of a deal, the new factory in the USA will make even less sense.

I can also well imagine that the USA has lost a lot of trust in the other regions. I wouldn't want to have anything to do with someone like that in my private life. It is therefore quite possible that the EU, China, South America, Mexico and Canada will open up to other trading partners in the long term. Then Trump can impose a million percent tariff, but ultimately the Americans will pay it themselves. Of course, this will also be painful for the rest of the world. But a policy from Trump that is designed to bring back industries from the last century is absolutely counterproductive in my opinion. Especially as no one in the rest of the world will buy it. So this is by no means a game changer to make the USA the undisputed number 1 again.

Incidentally, the Fed is not stupid either. They also know that the possible recession is not based on macroeconomic facts, but entirely on the egomania of one man. And Trump is known to change his mind more often than I change my underpants. So it remains to be seen whether they will support him unconditionally.

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@_xempex_ see beautiful contribution! Thanks for that! A lot of truth to it.... We hold on: it remains exciting whether his crazy plan will work ...

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Alpalaka@Alpalaka

1Settimana

massive redistribution from poor to rich - how on earth can you approve of that?
of course the USA wins - where did you get the assumption from?

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

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@Alpalaka moin my best, no of course I don't approve of this, but of course he is primarily thinking of his own ass and his buddies, who of course also buy the courses for billions.... In any case, it remains exciting

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Alpalaka@Alpalaka

1Settimana

@Testo-Investor But then your post doesn't match this answer.

"BUT he does everything for the USA" vs. "but of course he thinks primarily of his own ass and his buddies"

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Siytta@Siytta

1Settimana

Well, I'm not a fan of the basic idea, but the "rich" manage their money better than the "poor". Somewhere this is also reflected in the US economy.

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@Alpalaka yes forgive me ... maybe I'm not quite awake yet :-) 😂

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Alpalaka@Alpalaka

1Settimana

@Siytta If this destroys old-age provision, is that still all right?

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Siytta@Siytta

1Settimana

@Alpalaka As I said, I'm not a fan of the idea at all. A broken pension system in the US makes for a lot of cheap labor in low skilled jobs as the poor old people are then forced to earn extra. At the same time, the us has no welfare system, so the government/taxpayer is not burdened. Correct me if I'm thinking in the wrong direction. And again, I am not a proponent of such an approach.

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asset_sage_389@asset_sage_389

1Settimana

It's all been done before, but it didn't work:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot-Hawley-Zollgesetz

And btw. There was also an AFD in the 30s.... didn't work either ))

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market_whizkid_1434@market_whizkid_1434

5G

@asset_sage_389... they never give up. They are very stubborn

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John@arvabu

1Settimana

Don't feed the troll

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Stefan21@stefan_21

1Settimana

China is currently dumping US government bonds on a massive scale in response. So the plan - if that's what it is - isn't really working, at least as things stand.
If bond yields continue to rise now and goods prices also rise due to the tariffs, then the Fed would actually have to raise interest rates in order to fulfill its mandate of price stability.

Imagine that the Fed at least does not lower interest rates and bond yields do not fall but rise because other nations dump their bonds... and then they have to refinance their 8 trillion + the dumped bonds...

That would be high stakes and high losses. All in all, the Fed would have to print massive amounts of money and devalue the dollar...
Imagine not having Bitcoin🫣

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

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@stefan_21 Stefan that's it ... interest rate hike.... Then crypto looks pretty bad too ... at least for the overall market ....

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Stefan21@stefan_21

1Settimana

@Testo-Investor From a sober point of view, it should be like this. Are you aware of everything the USA imports from China? Now with a 104% mark-up😂
This is all highly inflationary and if the Fed were to fulfill its sole mandate of price stability, it would have to raise interest rates.

But since they don't want to let the financial system collapse and there is also pressure from politicians, interest rates will probably have to be lowered.

If the aim is to reduce the trade deficit, they will have to devalue the dollar in order to export more goods. At the moment, they are exporting dollars and importing goods. This is perfectly normal for the nation that is the world's reserve currency. And that is exactly what Trump wants to change.
And it is all the more fitting that Trump will be allowed to propose the new Fed chairman next year and replace Powell. He will nominate someone 100% who will lower interest rates as desired.

So no matter which scenario comes to pass, massive amounts of money will be printed and the dollar will have to be devalued. Trump himself always says that he prefers a weak dollar.

And Bitcoin will benefit massively from this in the long term.

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

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@stefan_21 Actually, I can almost imagine that it's a big joke and he'll just take it all back next week and say April Fool's Day. 😂

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Imperial_Trading_Company@Imperial_Trading_Company

1Settimana

But have you noticed that the exact opposite has been happening since tonight and money is flowing out of the bonds?

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@Imperial_Trading_Company nope not seen anything yet....

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Imperial_Trading_Company@Imperial_Trading_Company

1Settimana

@Testo-Investor But that's how it is. Trump seems to have gambled too high. The bond market is being exited in a big way. It is currently not seen as a safe haven. As a result, interest rates on new debt will not fall and Trump will have a problem if he has to refinance the national debt. I therefore hope that he will finally change his mind.

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

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@Imperial_Trading_Company Thanks for the info! This is of course the super disaster... instead of the refinancing becoming more thorough, it will now be twice as expensive... ouch

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Chris@Multibagger

1Settimana

He has chosen the wrong horse with China as his main enemy. If Ji has his way, 70% of American industry will grind to a halt in a few weeks/months. If China imposes an export ban on rare earths to the USA, nothing will work. No cars, no electronics and many other things won't work without it.
For example, the USA has exactly 0% production of tungsten in its own country, China 85%, among the top producers, otherwise Russia and North Korea are also among the top 4! Not necessarily countries with which the USA has outstanding trade relations.

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

1Settimana

@Multibagger That would of course be the ultimate disaster and China has no problem with that! Madness! Good contribution! Thank you

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Chris@Multibagger

6G

@Testo-Investor No, I have no clairvoyant abilities, just a bit of common sense. That the measure is coming so quickly, well.......

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

6G

@Multibagger all planned .... And all no coincidence.

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Chris@Multibagger

6G

@Testo-Investor Of course I have a dedicated line with XI😉

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port01_andy@port01_andy

1Settimana

Wait, take a deep breath and then comment in 6-12 months. The market will be way above the current brands and that's what we're all about here...at least I hope so. Anyone who doesn't start buying now is simply a F................. HDGDL

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Trader_01@Gerald_A

1Settimana

Sorry, unfortunately Trump is not a genius but believes he is a genius. That's a small difference with a big impact.

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PietAT@Petzi-Port

1Settimana

Interesting post, have you bought anything else?

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Sebi@Seebi

1Settimana

I agree 💙

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Carsten@Carsten1970

1Settimana

Mr. Trump is just destroying the savings of his own people and letting top companies run into the open knife. But the Americans aren't the brightest candles on the cake, otherwise they wouldn't have elected such a nutcase.

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Charmin@Charmin

1Settimana

I think if you want to take something good away from Trump, it's this:

Through his foreign policy, he is "forcing" Germany to wake up. In terms of the economy, in terms of defense.

If Germany does it right in the coming years (and this is by no means God-given), we would 1) be stronger in Europe again 2) Europe as a whole would be stronger 3) Germany would play a more important role in the world again. Economically and politically.

That would be thanks in no small part to Trump.

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Heinz R.@Here1667

4G

Trump and his advisors have made a big mistake in their thinking. They believe that they will make a lot of money with tariffs, more than the Chinese, because the USA imports much more.
Trump has completely overlooked the fact that the relevance of imports is crucial. China can do without most imports. The USA, on the other hand, is extremely dependent on a number of supplies from China. US companies can go out of business without these primary products. Examples: Rare earths, electronic components, chemicals, etc.
China is also the main supplier of medicines to the USA. Americans will soon realize this when there are no more medicines in pharmacies.
Next mistake: China is sitting on mountains of assets, the USA is completely over-indebted. Starting a trade war with its biggest creditor can only fail. The Chinese have a lot of leverage to inflict major damage on the US economy and the US financial system. It's a bit like a deer pintscher messing with a mastiff.
And last but not least: the trust and reliability factor. Is there any country that still has confidence in the USA? The markets are 30 percent fundamentals and 70 percent psychology based on trust.
Conclusion: Trump was very badly advised. The US will lose the trade war against China and the rest of the world. The US will most certainly slide into stagflation or even worse into recession. The dollar will lose its importance as a reserve currency and the Fed will soon have to intervene to stabilize the financial market, i.e. buying US government bonds, which are already at the level of emerging markets and could fall to junk level.
Investors will underweight US assets, i.e. the selling pressure on the markets will continue. I don't think we have seen a bottom on the equity markets yet and the bond market is at a tipping point. If interest rates at the long end rise to well over 5%, the US financing and business model will have collapsed.

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Alex@AlexBloch

1Settimana

So if you're only arguing from the point of view of a rich American, then he really is a genius. The poor and middle class of the USA will see it completely differently and will punish him for it in the mid-term elections in two years' time, because his long-term "plan" (?!?) will not have taken off by then - if at all.

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boz@boz

1Settimana

Are you an avowed Nazi? Sarcasm?

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Konstantin@Konstantin85

1Settimana

Trump is brilliant, while many here simply have no nerve.

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Andreas@AndreasE

1Settimana

He is incredibly destructive for the global economy. Only he and other insiders benefit from his policies. He is doing nothing for the USA. History will show.

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Roberto H.@Misswirtschaft

1Settimana

Absolute genius. I can only hope that there will be an equal successor for him.

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fund_commander_450@fund_commander_450

5G

How can you be a Trump fan and an AfD fan? Are you retarded? Trump this dog gives a fuck about Germany.

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Martin@Vizz

1Settimana

"He is causing a massive redistribution of money on the stock market - poor to rich"

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WarrenMunger@WarrenMunger

1Settimana

Very NICE🥸😜

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Marc Aurel@PrinceMarcus

1Settimana

@Luis-

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Tobi@Tobiwankenobi500

1Settimana

poor to rich - Trump gives a fck about your GQ portfolio and the woke/left/green bubble :D

I don't think most people here understand that :/
Guys look on the bright side!

Step 1) your portfolio dips by 10-30%
Step 2) you buy xzy stocks
Step 3) Profit as values rise again in the next 5-10 years :)

I actually only feel sorry for those who want to siphon off their money :/

LG Tobi

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Aeglospt@Aeglospt

1Settimana

I stopped reading at the "Trump fan and afd voter", whatever is next is surely parte of the moron culto and as such garbage.

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market_whizkid_1434@market_whizkid_1434

5G

Bond prices are falling instead of rising, countries are frowning at Trump instead of kissing his a......... inflation will continue to rise.... So nothing is going according to plan. Therefore; not a genius but a "moron"

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Trump: genius or madness?