LVMH is facing its deepest crisis in years: In the third quarter of 2026, the world’s largest luxury group posted organic growth of just 1% to €18.5 billion, while its core fashion and leather goods business—centered on Louis Vuitton and Dior—actually shrank by 5%. This is primarily due to weak demand in China, while the U.S., Europe, and Japan saw growth. The stock fell to €375.65 in mid-October, its lowest level in about six years; on November 13, it closed at €403.45 on Euronext Paris—about 37% below its level at the start of the year. From a technical analysis perspective, the bottom is within reach: the indicators no longer confirm the downtrend. A move above €435 could trigger a recovery to €545; without buying interest, however, a slide to €324 looms. Analysts’ average price target is €484.
Key Points
- Q3 2026: Revenue €18.5 billion, organic growth +1%, Fashion & Leather Goods −5%
- First nine months of 2026: Revenue of €57.1 billion (organic growth of +2%, reported decline of −2%)
- First half of 2026: Operating profit €8.7 billion (−4%), margin 22.5%
- Interim dividend: €5.50, ex-date: Dec. 1, 2026, payment date: Dec. 3, 2026
- Closing price as of Nov. 13, 2026: €403.45, 52-week low €375.65
- Analysts: Average price target €484 (ten firms, range €415 to €590)
- Chart levels: Recovery above €435 to €545, buy signal above €545, support at €324
What are the current key metrics for LVMH stock?
With a market capitalization of around €200 billion and a P/E ratio of around 18, LVMH stock is trading at its lowest valuation in years: On average over the past ten years, investors paid 25.6 times earnings.
At the same time, the dividend yield has risen to around 3.2%. For 2025, LVMH paid €13.00 per share; an interim dividend of €5.50 for 2026 will be paid on December 3—to receive it, investors must hold the stock in their portfolio through November 30.
- Share price (Euronext Paris: MC): €403.45 (close on Nov. 13, 2026)
- 52-week high: approximately €654 (January 2026)
- 52-week low: €375.65 (October 2026)
- All-time high: €904.60 (April 2023)
- Year-to-date performance: approximately −37% (November 13, 2026)
- Market capitalization: approx. €200 billion (November 13, 2026)
- Revenue Q3 2026: €18.5 billion (organic +1%) (Oct. 12, 2026)
- Fashion & Leather Goods Q3 2026: €8.2 billion (organic −5%) (Oct. 12, 2026)
- Revenue for the first 9 months of 2026: €57.1 billion (organic growth of 2%) (October 12, 2026)
- Operating profit H1 2026: €8.7 billion (−4%, margin 22.5%) (July 27, 2026)
- Revenue for 2025: €80.8 billion (organic −1%) (Jan. 27, 2026)
- Net income for 2025: €10.9 billion (−13%) (January 27, 2026)
- Free cash flow 2025: €11.3 billion (+8%) (Jan. 27, 2026)
- Current P/E ratio / 10-year average: approx. 18.4 / 25.6 (Aktienfinder, Nov. 15, 2026)
- Fair value at the end of 2027 (earnings): approximately €606 (17 analysts) (Aktienfinder, Nov. 15, 2026)
- Average analyst price target: €484 (+20%), range €415–590 (November 15, 2026)
- 2025 Dividend / Yield: €13.00 / approximately 3.2% (—)
- Interim dividend for 2026: €5.50 (ex-date Dec. 1, payment Dec. 3, 2026) (LVMH IR)
- Next Date: 2026 Annual Results in late January 2027 (expected)
- Index: CAC 40, Euro Stoxx 50 (—)
- WKN / ISIN / Ticker: 853292 / FR0000121014 / MC (—)
What news is currently affecting LVMH stock?
LVMH stock is falling primarily because its core fashion and leather goods segment contracted by 5% on an organic basis in the third quarter—analysts had expected a decline of only about 1.8%, according to media reports.
LVMH attributes the weakness to a less vibrant market environment in China, while the U.S., Europe, and Japan posted solid growth. Since then, several firms have lowered their price targets, most recently Jefferies and Morgan Stanley to €415 each. My analysis of Porsche Aktie.
- Nov. 9, 2026 – Morgan Stanley lowers price target: According to media reports, price target lowered from €420 to €415, rating: Equal-weight. Reason: weaker demand in China, France, and South Korea. (Bearish)
- November 6, 2026 – Jefferies cuts 2027 estimates: “Hold” rating with a price target of €415 confirmed; earnings estimates for 2027 lowered below market consensus. (Bearish)
- November 1, 2026 – New Chief Creative Officer at Louis Vuitton: Hector Muelas takes over as Chief Brand Creative Officer, overseeing campaigns for the group’s flagship brand. (Neutral)
- October 21, 2026 – BNP Paribas remains neutral: Price target slightly lowered from €470 to €465; rating: Neutral. (Neutral)
- Oct. 13, 2026 – 6-year low after Q3: Stock falls to €375.65 in mid-October. Deutsche Bank maintains Buy rating (€590), UBS lowers target to €510 (Buy). (Bearish)
- October 12, 2026 – Q3: Fashion & Leather −5%: Revenue of €18.5 billion, up 1% organically. Fashion & Leather Goods −5%, Selective Retail (Sephora) +8%, Watches & Jewelry +6%. (Bearish)
- October 2026 – Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a “Buy” rating: Initial coverage with a price target of €500. Goldman expects a turnaround in the leather goods business in 2027. (Bullish)
- July 27, 2026 – First Half: Margin Holds Steady at 22.5%: Revenue of €38.6 billion (organic growth of 2%), operating profit of €8.7 billion (−4%), net profit stable at €5.7 billion. Interim dividend of €5.50 announced. (Neutral)
What does LVMH management say about the situation?
LVMH describes the environment as uncertain but remains confident and aims to further expand its global leadership position in the luxury goods sector in 2026.
In the third quarter, a less vibrant environment in China impacted business, while the U.S., Europe, and Japan posted solid growth. CFO Cécile Cabanis had already emphasized in July that the first half of the year confirmed the strength and resilience of the business model.
What went well: Nearly all divisions continue to grow. Selective retail, including Sephora, grew organically by 8% in the third quarter; watches and jewelry, including Tiffany and Bulgari, by 6%; and wine and spirits by 6%. In the first half of the year, LVMH maintained its operating margin at a high 22.5% despite currency headwinds; free cash flow rose 2% to €4.1 billion, and net debt fell 19% to €8.2 billion.
The catch: Of all things, fashion and leather goods—which, accounting for around 46% of revenue, are the heart of the group and, with a margin of over 34%, its profit engine—shrank by 5% on an organic basis in the third quarter. In the second quarter, there had still been a 1% increase. Exchange rates are also weighing on results: in the first half of the year alone, they cost the company €686 million in operating profit.
Outlook: LVMH traditionally does not provide specific financial forecasts. The group intends to continue focusing on the desirability of its brands, quality, and excellence in retail. The 2026 annual results are expected at the end of January 2027.
What does LVMH do, and how does the group make money?
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton is the world’s largest luxury group and brings together 75 brands—from Louis Vuitton and Dior to Moët & Chandon and Hennessy, as well as Tiffany, Bulgari, and Sephora.
The Paris-based group is led by Bernard Arnault, whose family holds about half of the company’s capital. In 2025, LVMH generated €80.8 billion in revenue with more than 211,000 employees across 6,283 stores.
Five business segments: Fashion and Leather Goods (Louis Vuitton, Dior, Celine, Loewe, Fendi) generated €26.4 billion in the first nine months of 2026, accounting for about 46% of revenue and the majority of profits. This is followed by Selective Retail, which includes Sephora and DFS (€12.5 billion); Watches and Jewelry, featuring Tiffany, Bulgari, TAG Heuer, and Hublot (€7.7 billion); fragrances and cosmetics (€5.9 billion), and wine and spirits, including champagne and cognac (€4.0 billion).
Is there a Louis Vuitton stock? No. Louis Vuitton is not listed separately on the stock exchange; rather, it is part of LVMH. Anyone wishing to invest in Louis Vuitton should buy LVMH stock (WKN 853292, ISIN FR0000121014).
Where LVMH generates revenue: Asia excluding Japan accounted for approximately 26.5% of revenue in 2025, the U.S. for 25.6% (€20.7 billion), with Europe, France, and Japan rounding out the picture. It is precisely this dependence on China that makes the stock vulnerable—a pattern also seen in Adidas Aktie is also familiar with, as its China business is likewise faltering.
Revenue by Segment for LVMH Stock (MC), First Nine Months of 2026 (as of Nov. 15, 2026) – Source: LVMH Investor Relations / Christian Lill
LVMH Stock Fundamental Analysis: Is the LVMH Stock Undervalued Right Now?
Fundamentally, the LVMH stock is more attractively priced than it has been in years: The P/E ratio stands at around 18, compared to an average of 25.6 over the past ten years—representing a discount of nearly 30%.
The reason is clear: Revenue and earnings have been shrinking since 2023, and a recovery is slow in coming.
Growth: After a record year in 2023 with €86.2 billion in revenue, figures fell to €84.7 billion in 2024 and €80.8 billion in 2025. In the first nine months of 2026, reported revenue was 2% below the prior year, but on an organic basis—that is, excluding currency and consolidation effects—it was 2% above.
Margins: Operating profit fell by 9% in 2025 to €17.8 billion, with a margin of 22.0%. In the first half of 2026, despite a 4% decline in profit, the margin rose slightly to 22.5%. Fashion and leather goods remain the profit driver, with a margin of 34.1%.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: LVMH is in excellent financial health. Operating free cash flow rose by 8% in 2025 to €11.3 billion; net debt stood at just €8.2 billion as of the end of June 2026, compared with equity of €69.7 billion. The dividend payout ratio for 2025 was 59%.
Valuation: Based on earnings estimates from 17 analysts and the average P/E ratio over the past ten years, the Stock Finder calculates a fair value of approximately €559 at the end of 2026 and approximately €606 at the end of 2027 (range: €555 to €658). Based on the current price, this would represent 39% to 50% upside potential—provided that earnings recover as expected and the market is once again willing to pay the previous valuation premium. The Novo Nordisk Aktie.
Fair Value Valuation of LVMH Stock (MC) for 2027 (as of Nov. 15, 2026) – Source: Aktienfinder / Christian Lill
LVMH Stock Price Targets and Forecast for 2027
Analysts see an average price target of €484 for LVMH stock, representing about 20% upside potential—from a technical analysis perspective, a recovery to €545 is possible above €435; only above that level does a classic buy signal emerge.
In the absence of buying interest, €324 is the next key support level.
Key price levels:
- 52-week high: around €654 (January 2026), all-time high around €909 (2023)
- Current price: €403.45 (Euronext close on Nov. 13, 2026)
- First resistance level: €435
- Second resistance level and buy signal: above €545
- Target after trend reversal: €909
- Critical downside level: €324 (next key support level)
Analysts’ price targets:
- Average price target: €484 (ten firms, range €415 to €590, as of Nov. 15, 2026)
- Deutsche Bank Research: Buy, €590 (October 13, 2026)
- Citi: Buy, €530 (October 2026, according to media reports)
- Bernstein: Outperform, €520 (September 17, 2026)
- UBS: Buy, €510 (October 13, 2026)
- Goldman Sachs: Buy, €500 (Initial rating: October 2026)
- RBC: Sector Perform, €475 (September 22, 2026)
- BNP Paribas: Neutral, €465 (October 21, 2026)
- Berenberg: Hold, €420 (October 2026)
- Jefferies: Hold, €415 (November 6, 2026)
- Morgan Stanley: Equal-weight, €415 (November 9, 2026)
Chart Analysis:
LVMH Stock (MC) Chart Analysis and Price Targets for 2027 (as of Nov. 15, 2026) – Source: Stock3 / Christian Lill
On the weekly chart, the LVMH stock has been in a prolonged downtrend. Since its record high in the spring of 2023 at around 909 €, a downward trend line has been in place, against which all attempts at recovery have failed. After the entire luxury sector was hit extremely hard, the stock has fallen to the €400 mark. The moving averages are pointing downward, and the price is trading well below the Ichimoku cloud.
The bottom is within reach: Despite the downtrend, signs of a bottom are mounting. The indicators are no longer confirming lower prices and are forming positive divergences. The RSI has recovered from its lows to around 41, and the MACD is on the verge of crossing above its signal line.
The recovery (blue arrow): If buyers manage to break through the resistance level at €435, a rally to €545 would be possible. That is where the next red resistance zone lies, which served as a turning point several times in 2026. Important: Below €545, the stock remains in a downtrend.
The buy signal: Only a breakout above €545 would provide a classic buy signal and mark a trend reversal. In that case, the path back to the record high of €909 would be clear in the medium term.
The alternative scenario (dashed blue arrow): If buying interest still fails to materialize, €324 is the next key support level. The stock last traded in this yellow zone before the major breakout at the end of 2020. A slide down to that level would delay the formation of a bottom but not rule it out—even from there, a return to higher levels would still be possible.
Conclusion: LVMH Stock—Buy or Not?
LVMH is a financially strong global market leader whose stock, after plummeting by about 37% since the start of the year, is now more attractively valued than it has been in a long time—from a technical analysis perspective, the bottom is within reach, but a true buy signal won’t appear until the price rises above €545.
LVMH’s strengths include its unique brand portfolio, an operating margin of 22.5%, high free cash flow, a dividend yield of around 3.2%, and a P/E ratio well below the ten-year average. My analysis of Deutsche Bank Aktie.
Factors weighing against the stock include weak demand in China, the shrinking core business in fashion and leather goods, and declining earnings estimates from analysts. From a technical perspective, a recovery to €545 is possible above €435; only above that level does a classic buy signal emerge, with a target of the record high at €909. If buying interest fails to materialize, €324 is the next key support level. Those who prefer to focus on consumer-related growth rather than a rebound will find a tonies Aktie a counterexample with a record high.
✅ Opportunities
- The world’s largest luxury group with 75 brands and strong pricing power
- P/E ratio of around 18 instead of the 10-year average of 25.6
- High free cash flow (€11.3 billion in 2025) and low debt
- Dividend yield of around 3.2%, interim dividend of €5.50 in December
- Sephora, Tiffany, and Bulgari continue to grow
- Above €435: recovery to €545; above €545: buy signal to €909
⚠️ Risks
- Fashion & Leather Goods segment is shrinking, Q3 organic growth at −5%
- Weak demand for luxury goods in China
- Currency effects weigh on revenue and profit
- Analysts lower price targets and estimates for 2027
- Downward trend intact as long as the stock trades below €545
- Without buying interest, a slide to €324 is possible
Sources
- LVMH Press Release: Third-Quarter 2026 Revenue (Oct. 12, 2026)
- LVMH Press Release: 2026 Half-Year Results (July 27, 2026)
- LVMH Press Release: Fiscal Year 2025 (January 27, 2026)
- LVMH Shareholder Letter, July 2026: Interim Dividend of €5.50
- LVMH Investor Relations: Stock, Dividend, and Shareholder Structure
- dpa-AFX Analysts via finanznachrichten.de, boersentreff.de, and finanzen.at: Deutsche Bank, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Bernstein (September 17 through October 13, 2026); Zonebourse: BNP Paribas (October 21, 2026); Media reports: Citi, Berenberg, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, RBC (September through November 9, 2026)
- Euronext prices: Alpha Vantage (weekly data through November 13, 2026), Lang & Schwarz
- Stock3: Weekly chart for LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (EUR), as of November 15, 2026
- Aktienfinder: Fair value calculation (earnings), valuation metrics, and regions for LVMH, as of November 15, 2026
This is not investment advice—all information is provided solely for financial education purposes.
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