BASF Stock in 2026 Can a Takeover Still Save the Company

Summary:

To some extent—and it is precisely this “to some extent” that makes the current situation at BASF so complex. At the Ludwigshafen headquarters, the workforce has fallen to its lowest level in more than 70 years, and the site has posted losses for four consecutive years. Against this backdrop, BASF confirmed on September 25, 2026, that it was engaged in exploratory talks regarding a potential acquisition of Evonik Industries—a move that could strategically strengthen its position in the German chemical industry. However, the first attempt has already failed: According to the Financial Times, Evonik rejected the offer of 22.15 EUR per share (total value of approximately 10.3 billion EUR, roughly 23% of BASF’s own market value) as too low. Major shareholder RAG Foundation, which holds a 44% stake in Evonik, is considered a decisive factor in how the situation will unfold. Meanwhile, BASF remains solid from an operational standpoint: Following strong Q2 results with EPS jumping to EUR 4.78, management raised its EBITDA forecast. The stock is currently trading at approximately 50.57 EUR.

Key points:

Ludwigshafen workforce at its lowest level in over 70 years; fourth consecutive year of lossesCoreShift cost-cutting program: up to a 20% reduction in fixed costs in the core business by 2029; at the same time, BASF is investing EUR 1.5 billion annually in Ludwigshafen; BASF inaugurates a new EUR 10 billion plant in Zhanjiang, China — Capital shift draws criticismEvonik rejects BASF’s offer of 22.15 EUR per share (10.3 billion EUR, approx. 23% of BASF’s market value) The RAG Foundation (44% stake in Evonik) is considered a key factor in the future course of events Q2 2026: EPS of 4.78 EUR (previous year: 0.09 EUR), EBITDA forecast raised; Deutsche Bank (Buy, 60 EUR), Bernstein (Outperform, 61 EUR), DZ Bank (Buy, 64 EUR) Price: approx. 50.57 EUR — crossed below the 100-day moving average on September 25

Current Key Figures — BASF Stock (as of September 30, 2026)

Key FigureValueAs of

Price (XETRA: BAS)

approx. 50.57 EUR

September 30, 2026

52-Week High

55.05 EUR

April 14, 2026

52-Week Low

41.48 EUR

November 5, 2025

Distance from 52-Week High

approx. −8 to −9%

September 30, 2026

Revenue Q2 2026

17.21 billion EUR (+9.11% YoY)

July 15, 2026

EPS Q2 2026

4.78 EUR (previous year: 0.09 EUR)

July 15, 2026

EBITDA Forecast for 2026

6.2–7.0 billion EUR, raised after Q2

2026

Workforce in Ludwigshafen

Lowest level in over 70 years

June 2026

Global workforce

approx. 94,900 (−14.4% YoY)

June 2026

Ludwigshafen results

4th consecutive year of losses

2024/2025

Ludwigshafen investment (ongoing)

1.5 billion EUR annually

—

CoreShift cost-saving program

up to −20% fixed costs in core business by 2029

Announced in May 2026

New plant in China (Zhanjiang)

Approx. EUR 10 billion investment, inaugurated in March 2026

March 2026

Evonik Offer (rejected)

EUR 22.15 per share, EUR 10.3 billion total

Reported Sept. 29, 2026

Offer as % of BASF market value

approx. 23%

—

RAG Foundation’s stake in Evonik

approx. 44%

—

Dividend 2025 / expected 2026

2.25 EUR / 2.27 EUR

—

Dividend yield

approx. 4.5%

Sept. 2026

100-day moving average

Crossed below on Sept. 25, 2026 (at 50.46 EUR)

Sept. 25, 2026

WKN / ISIN / Ticker

BASF11 / DE000BASF111 / BAS

—

Deutsche Bank / Bernstein / DZ Bank

Buy 60 EUR / Outperform 61 EUR / Buy 64 EUR

September 28–29, 2026

Next quarterly results (Q3)

October 28, 2026

—

BASF Stock News — All the latest updates at a glance

Date | News | Details | Assessment

September 29, 2026

Evonik Rejects Takeover Offer

According to the Financial Times, Evonik has rejected the offer of 22.15 EUR per share (10.3 billion EUR total, approx. 23% premium) as too low. The RAG Foundation (44% stake) has not commented on the offer price but is considered a decisive factor in determining next steps.

Key

September 28–29, 2026

Analysts Reaffirm Buy Recommendations

Deutsche Bank (Buy, 60 EUR), Bernstein (Outperform, price target lowered from 63 to 61 EUR), and DZ Bank (Buy, 64 EUR) maintain their “Buy” ratings despite the uncertain takeover situation.

Bullish

September 25, 2026

Exploratory talks with Evonik confirmed

BASF officially confirms talks with the RAG Foundation and Evonik Industries. On the same day, the stock crosses below its 100-day moving average.

Neutral

May 2026

CoreShift cost-cutting program unveiled

New restructuring program aims to reduce fixed costs in the core business by up to 20% by 2029—including further job cuts and the outsourcing of service jobs to India.

Bearish

March 2026

New plant in Zhanjiang, China, inaugurated

BASF officially inaugurates its new plant in Zhanjiang, which cost approximately 10 billion EUR—the Group’s third-largest integrated site after Ludwigshafen and Antwerp. The shift of capital away from Germany draws criticism.

Controversial

July 15, 2026

Strong Q2 and Raised EBITDA Forecast

Earnings per share jump to 4.78 EUR (previous year: 0.09 EUR), and revenue rises by 9.11% to 17.21 billion EUR. Management subsequently raises the EBITDA forecast for the full year.

Very Bullish

What does BASF do—and how exactly does the company make money?

Company Description

BASF BASF SE (ISIN: DE000BASF111, WKN: BASF11), headquartered in Ludwigshafen am Rhein, is the world’s largest chemical company. The company organizes its business into eleven business units, which are grouped into six segments—divided into core businesses and standalone businesses.

The four core businesses—and how BASF specifically makes money:

Chemicals: Petrochemicals and Intermediates — form the heart of the BASF Verbund. It generates revenue through the sale of basic chemicals and intermediates to both external customers and its own segments. Materials: Performance Materials and Monomers — one of the world’s leading suppliers of high-performance plastics. Generates revenue through engineering plastics, polyurethanes, and specialty plastics for the automotive and construction industriesIndustrial Solutions: Dispersions & Resins and Performance Chemicals — develops ingredients and additives for industrial applications such as polymer dispersions, resins, and electronic materialsNutrition & Care: Care Chemicals and Nutrition & Health—generates revenue from ingredients for personal care, food, and pharmaceutical products

The real crux of the matter, however, lies not in the segment structure but in the headquarters itself: Ludwigshafen has been struggling for years with high energy costs and overcapacity, and has most recently posted losses for four consecutive years. It is precisely against this backdrop that the potential Evonik acquisition takes on special significance—an acquisition that could create economies of scale and market power, while the core location is simultaneously shrinking. Similar to the RENK Aktie, where a targeted acquisition was intended to open up new market access, BASF is focused on strategic repositioning—only under significantly more challenging structural conditions.

Fundamental Analysis: How Deep Is BASF’s Crisis, Really?

Fundamental Analysis of BASF Stock 2026

The situation is more nuanced than the headlines suggest—the group as a whole is not in danger, but its core German operations certainly are.

Valuation in the context of two conflicting narratives: At the corporate level, BASF is demonstrating operational strength with an EPS jump to 4.78 EUR and an upwardly revised EBITDA forecast (6.2 to 7.0 billion EUR for 2026). At its Ludwigshafen headquarters, however, the workforce has fallen to its lowest level in more than 70 years, and the site has posted losses for four consecutive years. This dual nature—a profitable group as a whole, a loss-making core site—is the real reason why the question “Can a takeover save the group?” is even being asked.

Margin Development and the CoreShift Program: The CoreShift cost-cutting program, unveiled in May, aims to reduce fixed costs in the core business by up to 20% by 2029—including further job cuts and the outsourcing of service jobs to India. At the same time, BASF continues to invest 1.5 billion EUR annually in Ludwigshafen, which shows that management is not opting for a retreat, but rather for a painful yet targeted restructuring.

Financial Health and the Evonik Issue Following the Rejection: With a dividend yield of approximately 4.5%, BASF remains financially viable. However, the fact that Evonik rejected the initial offer of 22.15 EUR per share as too low indicates that a potential deal could end up costing more than originally calculated, which further complicates the financing issue. The RAG Foundation, with its 44% stake, holds the real key to the situation.

Segment Analysis — China as a Counterpoint: The inauguration of the new plant in Zhanjiang—which cost approximately 10 billion EUR—in March 2026 shows where a significant portion of investment capital is currently flowing—not to Germany. This shift in capital is strategically understandable given the lower energy costs in China, but it further intensifies the debate over the future of Germany as a nuclear hub.

Conclusion of the fundamental analysis: BASF as a corporate group is not financially at risk—its operating figures and dividend capacity indicate otherwise. Its German headquarters in Ludwigshafen, however, is facing a genuine, structural crisis that a single acquisition alone cannot resolve. An integration with Evonik could strengthen the group as a whole without resolving the underlying problems at the Ludwigshafen site.

How is the BASF stock price performing?

Current chart analysis and price targets for BASF stock (as of October 1, 2026)

In early September 2026, following strong Q2 results and an upward revision of the EBITDA forecast, the BASF stock price came very close to its 52-week high of 55.05 EUR. Since July 13, 2026, however, the stock has been in a consolidation phase, which intensified technically on September 25—the day Evonik confirmed — when the price crossed the 100-day moving average at EUR 50.46. Evonik’s rejection of the takeover bid on September 29 did not trigger any additional price movement, suggesting that the market had not expected a quick resolution in the first place. The stock is currently trading at approximately 50.57 EUR. A similar pattern of operational strength coupled with structural location issues was most recently also evident in Lufthansa Aktie, where cost pressures at the home market also contrast with a fundamentally positive analyst outlook.

Key price levels:

52-week high: 55.05 EUR (April 14, 2026)52-week low: 41.48 EUR (November 5, 2025)Current price: approx. 50.57 EUR (September 30, 2026)100-day moving average: 50.46 EUR — crossed downward on September 25First resistance: 54.275 EURSecond resistance: 70–71 EURCritical support level: A drop below 46 EUR would confirm renewed weakness

Chart Analysis:

The chemical giant’s stock has been trading sideways for years. It is clear that a strong trading range has formed between 37.50 and 54 EUR. Within this range, I rate the stock as neutral. Should the price fall below 46 EUR, sellers would once again have a slight advantage in pushing the share price toward 37.50 EUR. If this level were to be breached amid strong selling pressure, a further medium-term decline to 28.50 EUR would not be unlikely.

If, on the other hand, the price were to break above 54 EUR, further buying interest could quickly emerge, pushing the price up to around 71 EUR.

Conclusion: Can a takeover still save the BASF Group?

My assessment: Hold / Wait

The honest answer: The Group as a whole doesn’t need saving, but its German headquarters in Ludwigshafen does. An integration with Evonik would strategically strengthen the chemicals business and create economies of scale, but it would not solve the structural problems—high energy costs, overcapacity, four consecutive years of losses—at its actual home base. Evonik’s rejection of the initial offer also shows that even this strategic option won’t come at a bargain price. A similar tension between a solid corporate balance sheet and a challenging home market is currently evident at Deutsche Bank Aktie.

Those who believe in BASF’s long-term fundamentals despite the location-related challenges and view the Evonik issue as a bonus rather than a necessity will find an entry point here with a solid 4.5% dividend yield and analyst targets well above the current price. Those who want to play it safe should watch how the takeover poker game with Evonik and the RAG Foundation unfolds in the coming weeks, wait for the Q3 results on October 28, and see if the price breaks above 54 EUR.

Would Evonik $BAS (+0,71%) get things moving again? What do you think??

Smudo@Smudeo

21H

It's actually sad what the government has done to a global corporation
😢

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Mo@Mo28

@Smudeo that people always blame the government. This trend isn’t just the government’s fault. BASF has grown so large because it was the first to master certain processes—processes that, in some cases, have changed the world, such as the Haber-Bosch process. Nowadays, virtually anyone can master the established chemical processes; it’s simply a matter of who can do so most cost-effectively. Since we in Germany have neither the natural resources nor the low wages of other countries, the only significant lever we have is efficiency. And that, after all, is limited. It was entirely foreseeable that this development would take place, and poor policy has certainly accelerated this trend—but it definitely did not trigger it.

NEWT@SteelAnacott

@Smudeo Just like the German government, the company has relied on cheap energy from Russia for too long and ignored geopolitical warning signs.
To blame all of this on the government now is, in my view, too simplistic.

Alex@A1bund7

20H

Who sets the framework for businesses? As a rule, it’s probably politicians. This applies to wages (taxes and levies) as well as to everything else. Cheap energy is still available. We could engage in fracking ourselves—but we prefer to buy it at a high price from abroad. Anyone who thinks this helps the environment is free to believe it. But for everyone else, the truth should become clear.

Staatsmann@Staatsmann

@Mo28 On top of that, BASF itself has become too slow in its internal processes. It’s the classic problem faced by many corporations.

Instead of reacting quickly to changing circumstances, everything gets discussed to death through 20 levels of hierarchy, and by then it’s too late.

@A1bund7 The issue of regulatory frameworks isn’t a one-way street.
You can see this, for example, with BASF, the CDU, and reforms related to REACH and the regulation of PFAS. BASF strongly advocates against the reforms and in favor of a risk-based approach. These positions were, in some cases, adopted verbatim into the CDU’s election platform—even though the party’s lead candidate at the time, and our current Chancellor, once served on BASF’s board of directors and had previously represented the company in court as a lawyer.
This is just one example among many; in particular, the “Big Four” management consulting firms (Deloitte, PwC, EY, and KPMG) are also frequently consulted when drafting laws that have a direct impact on their clients. To put it diplomatically, there is a risk of conflicts of interest here.

@SteelAnacott I don’t deny that companies exert influence. Nevertheless, political responsibility for the overall framework remains with policymakers. BASF may be able to make its voice heard on specific regulations while at the same time suffering from unfavorable business conditions. Lobbying influence is not proof of competitive energy prices, taxes, or permitting processes. Both can be true at the same time.

••

@A1bund7 I did not claim that lobbying influence is evidence of competitive energy prices.
However, in countries where there is a power imbalance between companies and the state—take, for example, Volkswagen and the state of Lower Saxony—the question arises as to who is actually setting the framework conditions here.

19H

@SteelAnacott That's right, you didn't say that exactly. So your point is that economic dependence creates political pressure. I agree with that. Still, influence doesn't equate to sole decision-making power. Even your VW example initially illustrates a power dynamic, not complete control over the conditions at the location. Companies can be politically influential while at the same time suffering under framework conditions that they themselves would prefer to see changed.

The Evonik acquisition could make sense in principle; after all, there are some synergies. It won’t be able to solve the underlying problems, but BASF is currently in the process of drastically cutting fixed costs. In the long term, the company will likely be much leaner. This step will still be relatively drastic in some areas. Whether that will be enough to get Ludwigshafen back on track remains to be seen. Personally, I’m optimistic.

TomInvest@TomInvest

Anyone who talks about a “bailout” should explain why BASF plans to return at least €12 billion to its shareholders over four years at the same time. That sounds more like a company facing location and profitability issues than one in a life-or-death crisis.

BASF Stock in 2026: Can a Takeover Still Save the Company?