3Anno·

Hey guys,

I have about 20% of my portfolio invested in the global clean energy ETF.

This has recently corrected strongly. There are also many small growth stocks and the market is currently punishing them. There are also many hydrogen hype stocks. I am therefore considering selling the ETF and focusing more on the profitable top dogs in the clean energy sector. So instead of the ETF only 4-5 shares. I was thinking of Vestas for wind, Solaredge for battery/solar, maybe Tesla for e car and maybe Scatec or something like that. Possibly Varta. What do you guys think about the plan and which stocks are most interesting? Thanks a lot!

11 Commenti

Cassius@DS0711

3Anno

I honestly don't understand your approach. You go into an ETF to be broadly positioned, so far so good. The market is now correcting and you want to sell. Either you have not dealt with it long enough or you are not convinced of your decision. Now the prices are favorable to buy and you want to sell. Either you made a mistake at the beginning and were not convinced of your investment or you are now making the mistake of limiting yourself to 4 stocks instead of being broadly diversified. Honestly don't understand your thought process. Why did you invest in the ETF in the first place?

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MarsEquities@CircusClown

3Anno

@DS0711 nothing changes sentiment like price

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Tom@tom_finance

3Anno

Not my sector at all - no idea about it, I tend to be more with ETFs in such sectors - the smaller stocks already correlate more with the large ones mMn

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Paliim@Paliim

3Anno

@boersen_student I bought the ETF because it covers a broad range of topics and you can't really say which form of energy will be dominant in 20 years. On the other hand, wind and solar power are making money right now. One could calmly bet on the leader.

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HB@HB

3Anno

So I see a very clear problem here (correct me if I misunderstood): you think you can beat a relatively broadly diversified ETF by focusing on individual stocks. But your suggested stocks are 10 times more risky than the ETF you want to sell because of -20%. Stocks like Tesla are certainly as volatile, if not more, than the ETF. That is, they could make just at the current time gladly times -50%. What then? Do you want to sell them again and switch back to the "safe" ETF? Now again in general to the green tech industry: I am absolutely not a friend of. Billions are poured into this sector, and yet these companies don't make a profit (Siemens Gamesa is a good example). I would rather bet on conventional stocks that are trying to implement the green transformation. Another sector that I find much more interesting is recycling/waste management. There my favorites: Tomra/Waste Management.

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Paliim@Paliim

3Anno

@HB I mean, you're right, you should follow through with a strategy you've started. I just thought that in the new interest rate environment, the smaller growth stocks won't perform as well and stocks like Vestas or Orsted, which are established, might work better because they are already making profits and have enough money.

I invest in green tech because I am convinced of the topic. RWE or Shell suing governments because of too many climate protection regulations etc... that's exactly the opposite of what I want.

However, I find recycling companies really exciting

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HB@HB

3Anno

@Paliim so where you are right, of course, is that Orsted and Vestas are established. However, these companies are by no means a guarantee of growth. I took a quick look at the fundamentals of both of them and you can see that Vestas has a huge margin problem (i.e. sharply declining net margin) and Orsted has a sales problem (de facto no growth).

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HB@HB

3Anno

And briefly about RWE and Shell: I agree with you about Shell, it's (still) an environmental pig. However, RWE is one of the largest producers of renewable energy in Europe. Almost half of the electricity it generates already comes from renewables. These capacities are to be doubled by 2030. At the same time, RWE still has stable profits from gas and coal. That's why I think it's an interesting future player that doesn't have the problems of the aforementioned stocks.

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Paliim@Paliim

3Anno

@HB I see coal-fired power plants more as a vice. They have to run when the wind blows and the sun shines and are becoming increasingly uneconomical because renewables are so cheap. Gas-fired power plants will of course still be needed, but if you want to invest in renewables, you don't immediately think of RWE, but rather ENBW. RWE has exerted great influence on politics and transferred the energy transition from the hands of the citizens to the large corporations. In Germany, the big energy giants have just a 5% market share of renewables. The wife of the company boss has led wind power demonstrations in BW etc.. For me, this company is a real fossil. They have only expanded wind in Scotland to gain new market share there, in Germany they have slowed down wherever they could.

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HB@HB

3Anno

@Paliim The fact that coal-fired power plants are currently more of a vice is simply wrong. At the moment (!) they are pure cash cows. The best example is Uniper. You first have to quadruple the share price since 2016. At the same time, coal-fired power plants will be hugely important for grid stability in the future, as renewables only guarantee a non-regular feed-in. Uniper and others are already being paid handsomely to ensure grid stability. In addition, RWE, for example, has already stocked up on masses of (cheap) CO2 certificates until 2030. This means that coal-fired power still has high margins despite the CO2 price.
In addition, I find it almost rudimentary to derive the direction of a DAX company from the political opinion of the CEO's wife.
What is true is that RWE has been more of a brakeman than a driver in the past. However, the company HAD to change this position due to politics. (See linked article) And this is exactly where I see the share's potential. Not only does RWE now have great key figures again, there is also the possibility that people like you will realize that the Group is changing from a coal company to a green electricity company. And if the stock market realizes this, I see great upside potential. https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/energie/energieversorger-boom-im-energiehandel-rwe-uebertrifft-die-eigenen-gewinnziele/28010366.html

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FinFit@FinFit

3Anno

The ETF has benefited from the hype and is still far too expensive after the correction, or rather the companies in it. The chance to beat the ETF with the individual stocks mentioned is also quite manageable. Why does it always have to be the overpriced hype stocks?

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