Medical Properties Trust Azione Forum

$MPW (+8,53%) Hello everyone, there was good news from MPW today. After the rather sobering figures and the very tight earnings call yesterday - the biggest concern was probably the lack of rents from Prospekt, the next shaky candidate among MPW's tenants - there was top news today: Astrana Health has signed a binding purchase agreement for a large part of the PHP managed care platform. 745 million dollars in total, of which 200 will go to MPW and around 500 will presumably benefit prospects. The implications are, besides the foreseeable cash windfall for MPW, a stabilization of prospect (possibly also the payment of back rent to MPW in the near future) as well as a strengthening of prospect in its current legal dispute with Yale. Yale has already agreed to buy the remaining php shares and has been refusing to pay the full price for some time. A court decision could come as early as December and now with astrana's acquisition of the remaining shares, has some momentum for prospects who can point to willing market participants at around current prices. For MPW, some of the weakest tenants (steward/prospect) are thus stabilized or out and the company expects at least 50% of the rents from the former steward portfolio from 2025. In 2026 (with full rent from the former Steward), the current RE portfolio will generate around one billion in rent per year (stated in the earnings call), after which MPW can start expanding the portfolio again. The positive outlook is apparently shared: MPW has recently announced two major investors who have each bought 5% of the shares and have declared no intentions to influence the company. MPW is and remains not for the faint-hearted, but I am looking forward to a good recovery here.

$MPW (+8,53%) publishes Q3 earnings today. The problems surrounding Steward's bankruptcy are being worked through step by step, the company is not yet through and write-downs are being carried out again for accounting purposes. The name Prospect has also reappeared - so there is still light and shade.

The share price is reacting very negatively for the time being, but fundamentally there is no change in my view. We will probably have to wait until mid/end 2025 if we want to see stable business again. But that's nothing new.

Looking for a recommendation for a good and inexpensive stock screener

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Best regards

$ONON

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$MPW (+8,53%) has probably reached a significant deal with Steward to settle the insolvency issues, and this was also approved by the court yesterday. The share price is really soaring today - has the knot now burst?

$MPW (+8,53%) Last night, the dividend for the current quarter. 0,08$ for each share held on September 9. This is based on the bank's covenants, which were renegotiated for the further course of the steward bankruptcy. Anyone following this process could already smell the $0.08, as there was friction between the debtors, MPW and Steward this week, which had already been brewing. Yesterday, among other things, there was an emergency meeting of the insolvency court to calm the waters. With regard to the dividend, it should be noted that no adjustment
of the cash allocation strategy has been announced. The final dividend of the year therefore depends on the balance sheet and may be related to a non-cash component if the REIT requirement is not met by a .08 dividend. In the future, the amount of the cash component will continue to depend on the covenants. As soon as these are no longer necessary for Steward, the dividend should return to the generously covered 0.15 of the last quarters.

$MPW (+8,53%)
2 News about MPW:

1. MPW has 11 emergency departments in Colorado for 86 million dollars. Original investment of 64 mil and thus about 6% annual return. Not bad, brings liquidity and strengthens the business model.

2. And this is more interesting: there is a "stalking horse bid" for some steward assets in Florida. No price has been announced yet and there was no doubt that these stronger assets would find buyers anyway. The interesting aspect is that the assets include the medical group practices north Florida should be included in the assets. As I understand it, these are part of the supposedly so valuable stewardship systemwhich was recently sold for a (somewhat disappointing) 245 million dollars. If I understand this correctly, this sale sale (245 mil) may only include the stewardship shares in Massachusetts. This would be very good news and would mean more lucrative sales in Stewards c11 - it remains exciting! Let me know if anyone has a better understanding of the stewardship/mpg nf relationship 👍🏻

$MPW (+8,53%) News from the c11 of Steward: stewardship has a confirmed offer for 245 million $. The first docket in support has been filed, tomorrow is the deadline for objections and Friday is the sale meeting. In other news: hedgeye has MPW officially from its list of active short positions removed.

A little thought experiment:

Everyone who starts investing asks themselves what they should buy, what will go up the most!

Many opt for individual shares

But does that make sense? Especially for small amounts / beginner portfolios

Let's take a look at this:

Assumption: 1000€ deposit

(development after 1 year)

Share 1: 200€ (50% +) = 300€

Share 2: 200€ (5% +)= 210€

Share 3: 200€ (5% +)= 210€

Share 4: 200€ (0% +/-)= 200€

Share 5: 200€ (-25%)= 150€

Total after 1 year: 1070€

1 ETF solution:

1000€ ( assumption 7% p.a.) = 1070€

Of course, I have adjusted the values so that the result for both is €1070, but what I am trying to say is:

"If you don't deal with shares full time or examine each company closely, you can lose so much return with just one bad purchase that it's not even worth the risk of a single share."

(Finanzkeks - 12.08.2024🫶🏻)

And in this example I am only talking about one bad investment + one 0% case and even one very good investment (+50%).

What if there had been more bad investments or no very good investment at all?

Beginners in particular should therefore perhaps opt for the ETF variant (even if the 7% p.a. is of course not guaranteed)

Example: $VWRL (+0,46%) or $ISAC (+0,51%)

This saves work/time and possible loss of returns. I myself have nothing against individual stocks, but if you hold them instead of an ETF, you should try to outperform it, which can go wrong with just one or two bad purchases.

Especially as individual stocks simply offer less diversification + higher volatility than a defensive ETF.

So to all beginners, take your time, get to know the stock market, start slowly, build a base and gain experience.

I myself have also bought individual shares -

and made bad purchases...🤡 Greetings $MPW (+8,53%)

$MPW (+8,53%)

Since this is the second post with somewhat misleading information on MPW's earnings, I'll add one here from someone who heard the earnings call and has been following the company in recent months....

Basically: Loss of (54) millwhich is made up of the operating results and income in the amount of 400 millagainst which, among other things depreciation and amortization in the amount of 400 mil from the MA Steward joint venture and 160 mil depreciation on the PHP investments. Excluding one-off effects the result was positive.

It is important that prospectus (full+ interest) and steward (in accordance with the requirements of c11) rent paid have paid the rent. Accordingly, it is not surprising that Nffo and cash flow cover the dividend and the company is sticking to its payout level.

Interesting developments q2:

1)

The ominous "dividend cut". MPW has announced an extension of its current favorable credit terms with its creditors. From now on, MPW may borrow until September 2025 a higher leverage which gives the management more flexibility to deal with the effects of the steward situation. In return, MPW must maintain a shareholder equity of 5 bill (double the Marcel cap) and pay the distributions in cash will be reduced to 0.08 cents cash per quarter limited. MPW itself has the option to terminate these terms early at any time if the steward situation becomes more predictable. Management has explicitly stated in the call that this is is not a dividend announcement and does not affect the strategy regarding the payout. The decisive factor here is the REIT status, which includes a minimum payout requirement. At the time of the dividend announcement, a corresponding strategy will be in place and if a) Steward is still unsure, b) REIT status is required, the dividend will be paid in cash (0.08) at that time. in cash (0.08) and non-cash, i.e. either buybacks or shares issued. Apart from that, the requirement of a 60-70% NFFO coverage is decisive for future dividends - the 0.08 cents is only 38%.

2)

Debt situationMPW has paid all debts for 2024 and has 600 Mil cash for the 1.28 bil debt in 2025. The aforementioned change in credit terms comes with a reduction in the "revolver", which management states no longer need in existing sizeto restructure the debt or take on new debt. The sales of the last year have shown that MPW has optimized its portfolio regardless of class and location can sell its portfolio above book value. Management sees no concerns regarding debt. Cash raised in 2024 until Q2 (!) are 2.5 Bil Dollar.

3)

Steward in MAEd Aldag opened the call with a bang: MPW, Macquire and Steward had buyers for all Steward Hospitals in MAhospitals in MA who current rents would have paid the current rents. The local government has blocked this within the procedure blocked and only wanted to award the contract to operators from MA with non-profit models. This is the main reason for the delays and the two closures in MA. MPW draws the consequence and leaves MA permanently. Accordingly 400 mil write-offs in this quarter on the joint venture there, for which the loans were canceled accordingly. The write-downs are accounting necessary - if Apollo receives more than 900 mil for the buildings MPW is entitled to 50% of the surplus.

4)

Steward outside: Management can hardly comment on the hospitals outside MA, except that they are much stronger operations and it was no problem to get bids from numerous MPW business partners in MA - in short Management assumes faster C11 in other states.

5)

Stewardship: The depreciation on PHP may be an indication that stewardship is bringing in less moneythan Steward hopes. This is the real fly in the ointment; there is nothing reliable here yet and the data is due this month.

6)

NorwoodFor those who are not in the know: Norwood is a hospital that suffered severe water damage due to heavy rain and had to be demolished. At the time, the hospital's insurer did not pay MPW's and stewards' claims in full - the reason given was that "flood damages" are limited. The Supreme Court has now ruled in favor of MPW and ruled that a flood cannot originate from the roof. MPW now expects a future future windfall with no foreseeable deadline. (The hospital had previously been written off)

7)

Yale. No timeline, but according to MPW, Prospect has the stronger claims for the pending completion of the agreed sale. If this is completed, Prospect will be in a much more stable position and MPW may receive its back-rent earlier.

Apart from that, MPW has recorded a

8)

strengthening of the industry in all portfolios, especially in Europe, where the operators sometimes had their best quarters.

In line with this slam-dunk earnings call there was a significant recovery in the share price yesterday. MPW is well on the way to overcoming Steward and making a comeback. Currently there are still 210 mil short sales (volatility is not out of the house ...) that want to be bought back and even if Steward pulls out and we only get 8 cents plus shares for one/two quarters, this remains an absolutely convincing asset and value play. The situation is not always easy to oversee - REITs are boring business models whose management usually does not have to hold the hands of the shareholders so that everyone understands how to evaluate the business environment - but MPW has so far maneuvered the current crisis in a straightforward and convincing manner in my eyes. I remain invested. If I have made any mistakes here, please let me know, thank you.