Block

(Delayed) portfolio review October 2024 - A month with 5 share sales and one ETF sale

Even though October was just over two weeks ago, it feels like a different time. Germany still had an (unspeakable) traffic light government, in America the race for the White House was still open and a phone call between Scholz and Putin was unthinkable.

And even though November has been much more exciting on the stock market than October so far, October was a month of major changes from a personal perspective.

Apart from stock market investments, we are slowly starting to think about building a house. As a result, for the first time in a long time I made several sales in my portfolio and therefore also cleared out a little.

Previously this year, there were only 2 sales in my portfolio: at NVIDIA I took my stake out in February and since then have only let the profits run. In addition, in March I had Encavis after the takeover bid.

There were a total of 6 sales in October. For just under €7,000 I sold my China ETF which has recovered well over the last few months.

On the equity side, I have now sold most of the Corona Hype stocks and Match, Atlassian, Shopify and Block have been sold. In addition, I have also Pfizer sold. That was another €8,000, leaving only Sea from the Corona hype times, where I will remain invested for the time being, as it covers a completely different region geographically with Southeast Asia.

My savings quota will therefore be significantly reduced for the time being due to the upcoming house building project. From just under €1,500 to €2,000, it will only be €500-600 per month for the time being

Monthly view:

In total, October was +1,7%. This corresponds to price gains of ~5.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +0.9% and the S&P500 +1.5%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers is part of the usual picture:

On the winning side is, as so often NVIDIA is at the top with almost €3,000 in share price gains. It is followed by TSMC, Bitcoin, Alphabet and Palo Alto Networks with gains of €900-1,000 each.

On the loser side above all ASML made its contribution with price losses of almost €1,400. This was followed by Bechtle, Thermo Fisher, LVMH and Nike a broader mix of stocks that have not necessarily performed well recently. Nevertheless, all 5 loser stocks are still part of my savings plans.

The performance-neutral movements in October were just under €4,600. The sales proceeds are all still in cash accounts at the moment, so they have not yet flowed out of the assets. There will be a larger dip here at some point in the future.

Current year:

My performance in the current year is +27,5% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 23.7%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~331.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€79,000 in the current year 2023. ~53.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~3.000€ from dividends / interest and ~22.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in October were 32% above the previous year at ~€150
• TSMC is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of €30 every 3 months. TSMC has already raised the dividend for next year by 30% again
• In the current year, the dividends after 10 months are +25% over the first 9 months of 2023 at ~2.350€

Buys & sells:

• I bought in October for approx. 1.500€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue chipsNovo Nordisk $NOVO B (+3%) LVMH $MC (+1,27%) Apple $AAPL (+1,26%) Home Depot $HD (+2,91%) Microsoft $MSFT (+1,55%) Nike $NKE (+3,44%) Starbucks $SBUX (+3,28%) Stryker $SYK (-0,47%) Texas Instruments $TXN (+1,13%)
• 
  GrowthCrowdstrike $CRWD (+4,74%) MercadoLibre $MELI (+2,36%)
• 
  ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (+1,02%) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (+1,38%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+1,55%)
• 
  Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC (+0,14%) and Ethereum $ETH (+0,95%)
• 
  Sales as mentioned, there were some in October with Match $MTCH (+1,57%) Pfizer $PFE (+2,63%) Block $SQ (+0,18%) Shopify $SHOP (+1,18%) Atlassian $TEAM Invesco MSCI China All-shares $MCHS (-2,02%)

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market development in the current year, my portfolio already stands at ~€331,000 at the end of October.

As of mid-November and thanks to the Trump rally, my portfolio is currently approaching €350,000 and was even slightly above this level a few days ago. However, with a larger cash portion that will sooner or later flow into financing as equity.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Earnings next week

$PLTR (+5,1%)

$SMCI

$CELH

$ARM (+2,84%)

$CLF (+5,29%)

$AMC

$QCOM (+1,51%)

$DKNG (-0,29%)

$HIMS (+5,77%)

$ELF (+3,75%)

$ANET (+1%)

$CLOV (+1,25%)

$SQ (+0,18%)

$APP (+5,32%)

$VST (-0,9%)

$NVO (+3,21%)

$RIVN (+2,34%)

$DVN (+2,51%)

$U (+5,58%)

$WYNN (-0,02%)

$CVS (+2,17%)

$CEG

$TTD (+1,61%)

$MRNA (+8,19%)

$$BRK.A (+1,14%) (Saturday)

$CDE (+0,32%)

$AFRM (+1,28%)

$MELI (+2,36%)

$FTNT (-0,9%)

$PINS

$ABNB (+3,67%)

$ABX (+1,15%)

$HL (-2,2%)

$MAR

$IONQ

$NET (+2,43%)

$AXON (+0,79%)

$ALB (+0,35%)

$DOCS (-0,56%)

$WOLF (+25,54%)

$BROS

$PAAS (-0,23%)

$DDOG (+8,11%)

$LCID (+2,55%)

$TOST (+1,41%)

$LUMN (+0,93%)

$MLCO (-0,87%)

$DOCN (+2,59%)

$ALAB

$ACB (+0,94%)

From all-time high to all-time high - time to take a look in my cellar 📉

The stock markets only know one direction at the moment and even September, generally the worst month on the stock markets, is heading for a clear green result.

Of course, this can also be seen in my portfolio in the following picture. What I find much more exciting in such situations, however, is always the view to the very bottom, where it turns red and which is generally not shown here.

Now it turns red and negative:

Even though many things are going well, some things are not going well. For the most part, these are still the former corona winners like Pfizer $PFE (+2,63%) Sea $SE (-2,34%) Block $SQ (+0,18%) or Atlassian $TEAM

However, Pfizer's overall performance is not quite as bad, as there has of course been a lot of dividend growth over the last few years.

Nike $NKE (+3,44%) and Hershey $HSY (+0,38%) are also not doing themselves any favors at the moment, but are still in the savings plan. Just like Bechtle $BC8 (-0,12%)

My China ETF is currently the phoenix from the ashes, I was surprised myself that it has almost reached 0 😂

Towards the end of the year, I will analyze the losers again. Will they get another year of probation? Or will one stock or another be thrown out?

I usually look at this between Christmas and New Year's Eve.

What's your situation? What are your skeletons in the closet doing?

#etfs
#personalstrategy
#stocks

$SQ (+0,18%) - Block Q2 Earnings Highlights:

• Adjusted EPS: USD 0.93 (estimated USD 0.85)
• Adjusted EBITDA: USD 759 million (estimated USD 685.7 million); increase of +97% compared to the previous year
• Net sales: USD 6.16 billion (estimated USD 6.31 billion)

Sales breakdown:

• Transaction-based revenue: USD 1.71 billion (estimated USD 1.76 billion)
• Subscription and service-based revenue: 1.79 billion US dollars (estimated 1.75 billion US dollars)
• Hardware revenue: 43 million US dollars (estimated 39.3 million US dollars)
• Bitcoin revenue: 2.61 billion US dollars (estimated 2.73 billion US dollars)
• Cash App: 4.13 billion US dollars (estimated 4 $. 2B)
• Revenue in the square segment: 1.98 billion US dollars (estimated 2.01 billion US dollars)
• Corporate and other revenue: $47 billion (estimated $54.2 billion)
• Gross profit: $2.23 billion (estimated $2.19 billion)

Annual forecast:

• Adjusted EBITDA: USD 2.90 billion (previously USD 2.76 billion; estimated USD 2.8 billion)
• Adjusted operating income: USD 1.44 billion (previously USD 1.3 billion; estimated USD 1.34 billion)
• Block announces an additional share buyback program of up to USD 3 billion

Guidance for the third quarter:

• Gross profit: USD 2.22 billion (estimated USD 2.22 billion)
• Adjusted EBITDA: USD 695 million (estimated USD 669.5 million)
• Adjusted operating result: USD 320 million (estimated USD 311.3 million)

#earnings
#quartalszahlen

#fintech - I found a nice overview here

Neobanking is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of around 55% to $2 trillion by 2030 - Let's take a look at where fintech stocks stand based on 2025 metrics

Who do you favor? ☺️

$NU (+4,68%)
$COIN (+4,25%)
$FOUR
$HOOD (+4,3%)
$DLO
$TOST (+1,41%)
$PYPL (+2,85%)
$BILL (+1,34%)
$ADYEY (+2,38%)
$SQ (+0,18%)
$SOFI (+4,38%)
$PGY
$ML
$AFRM (+1,28%)
$UPST (+4,17%)

$SOFI (+4,38%) - Company presentation and personal opinion:

https://getqu.in/M3ToeR/

5 STOCKS 4 LIFE

Reading time: approx. 6min

INTRODUCTION

A while ago, I came across an interesting thought experiment in an article: "What 5 stocks would you buy right now if you knew you had to hold them for the rest of your life and you weren't allowed to buy any other stocks?"

In the age of €1 order fees and the ability to trade shares virtually around the clock on your smartphone, this is of course not a realistic scenario, but the question was so interesting for me that I thought about which 5 shares I would buy.

I quickly decided on my 5 stocks. I currently hold all five in my portfolio. Similarities between the 5 stocks I had chosen quickly became apparent:

• mostly platform business model or platform-like
• at least one major and very long-term growth trend intact
• Consistent growth in sales and profits
• high ROCE
• low debt

The current valuation level deliberately played no role at all in my decision, as these are, after all, shares that I want to hold for the rest of my life and my investment horizon is therefore at a maximum. In order to be able to benchmark my decision, I decided to set up my own securities account on Getquin and placed these shares in the securities account at €100,000 each. The shares were then entered into the securities account on May 31.

MY 5 SHARES FOR LIFE

1) Visa $V (+0,68%)

Visa is a leader in digital payments, enabling secure and fast transactions worldwide through its extensive network of payment cards and solutions. Almost everyone here has probably paid with a Visa card at least once in their life.

Business model highlights:

• Duopoly with Mastercard $MA (+1,85%) in the area of payment cards
• Platform business model
• intact growth trend of cashless/digital payments
• No direct credit default risk, as the issuing banks bear the credit default risk of the users

Highlights Key financial figures:

• EBIT margin over 65%
• ROCE permanently above 30%
• Virtually debt-free

Biggest competition:

• Mastercard $MA (+1,85%)
• PayPal $PYPL (+2,85%)
• Block $SQ (+0,18%)

2) Costco $COST (+1,94%)

Anyone familiar with my previous posts will know that I am 100% convinced by Costco. Costco is a retailer from the USA, but it sets itself apart from traditional retailers with its "retail as a service" business model. In order to shop in one of Costco's many department stores, you first have to take out an annual subscription.

Highlights of the business model:

• Subscription business model ("Retail as a Service")
• Large existing physical network of department stores
• High customer loyalty through subscription and low prices

Highlights Key financial figures:

• very consistent sales, profit and FCF growth
• ROCE consistently above 23
• debt-free

Largest competitor:

• Walmart $WMT (+2,93%)
• Target $TGT (+3,36%)
• BJ's Wholesale $BJ (+4,49%)

3) Microsoft $MSFT (+1,55%)

Similar to Visa, Microsoft probably needs no further introduction to know what an excellent company we are dealing with here. Microsoft earns its money with software subscriptions, cloud services (Azure) and gaming (Xbox), among other things. Everyone is probably familiar with the Windows operating system and the Office 365 productivity suite.

Highlights of the business model:

• a large proportion of sales are recurring and subscription-based
• High customer loyalty thanks to platform business model with Windows and Office 365
• Cloud growth trend is excellently served by Azure;
• the cloud market itself is an oligopoly with high barriers to switching providers
• Very well positioned in the field of AI through cooperation with OpenAI

Highlights Key financial figures:

• EBIT margin consistently above 40%
• ROCE of almost 30%
• Almost debt-free

Largest competitors:

• Operating systems: Apple $AAPL (+1,26%), Alphabet $GOOGL (+0,04%)
• Cloud: Amazon $AMZN (+0,2%), Alphabet $GOOGL (+0,04%)

4) Chipotle $CMG (+4,01%)

Chipotle Mexican Grill is a fast food chain that specializes in the preparation of Mexican dishes. A special focus is placed on comparatively healthy and fresh ingredients.

Business model highlights:

• Clear focus on a difficult but previously underrepresented area of fast food
• No franchise business model and therefore full control over the restaurants
• Long-term trends towards healthier and faster food are served
• not active in the highly competitive low-cost fast food sector

Highlights Key financial figures:

• Increasing profitability
• rising ROCE of now over 22%
• Low debt

Largest competitor:

• McDonald's $MCD (+1,29%)
• Wingstop $WING (+0,31%)
• Texas Roadhouse $TXRH (+1,57%)

5.) Philip Morris International $PM (-0,4%)

Philip Morris International is one of the largest tobacco companies in the world and is the spin-off of the ex-USA business of $MO. In recent years there has been a clear focus on new less harmful products such as IQOS.

Business model highlights:

• Long-term growth trend for the IQOS platform developed in-house and nicotine pouches
• Oligopoly in the area of classic tobacco products
• benefits most from the trend in industrialized countries to increasingly regulate traditional smoking
• huge growth opportunity through market entry of the IQOS platform in the USA is imminent

Highlights Key financial figures:

• EBIT margin of over 35
• ROCE of over 30%

Lowlights Key financial figures:

• High level of debt due to investments in recent years
• Currently almost no sales and profit growth

Largest competitors:

• British American Tobacco $BATS (+1,84%)
• Imperial Brands $IMB (+1,09%)
• Altria $MO (+1,74%)

SUMMARY

At the time of entry into the portfolio, the portfolio consisted of approximately 40% information technology (Visa, Microsoft), 40% consumer staples (Costco, Chipotle) and 20% non-cyclical consumer staples (Philip Morris). All 5 stocks are formally US companies, with Philip Morris currently generating 100% of its sales outside the US. Microsoft and Visa also generate large parts of their sales internationally. However, it is also clear that with 5 stocks, we cannot expect an overly broad diversification.

Which 5 stocks would be your stocks for life and why? Feel free to write your own post with reasons under the hashtag #5stocks4life. To spice things up a bit, I would like to nominate the true ETF pope @Simpson and the dividend king @GoDividend to present your 5 Stocks 4 Life with reasons.

Stay tuned,

Your Michael Scott

#5stocks4life

Economy on 03.05.2024...

Eventful week comes to an end ⤵️

This week was a busy one. We had a lot of quarterly figures from the big companies. $AMZN (+0,2%) Amazon, $AMD (+1,27%) AMD, $MMM (+0,67%) 3M, $MCD (+1,29%) McDonalds, $KO (+0,69%) CocaCola, $QCOM (+1,51%) Qualcomm, $PFIZER Pfizer, $MA (+1,85%) Mastercard, $ETSY (+1,93%) Etsy, $SBUX (+3,28%) Starbucks and so on.

Yesterday, the following were added after the close of trading:

$AAPL (+1,26%)
Apple
second quarter earnings per share of $1.53, beating analysts' estimates of $1.50. Revenue of $90.8bn, above expectations of $90.32bn. iPhone revenue of $45.96bn in the second quarter (consensus $46.4bn, previous year $51.3bn). Apple gives green light for $110bn share buyback, the largest share buyback in the company's history. Apple also signals that revenue growth is expected in the current quarter and the dividend will be increased by 4%.

$COIN (+4,25%)
Coinbase Global
beat analyst estimates of $1.01 in the first quarter with earnings per share of $4.40. Revenue of $1.64 bn exceeded expectations of $1.3 bn.

$BKNG (-0,07%)
Booking Holdings
Adjusted for one-time items, analysts had expected earnings per share of $13.98. Booking delivered $20.39. Revenue was also $160 million above expectations at $4.42 billion (+16.9%). Thanks to massive share buybacks, the number of outstanding shares fell by 9 % compared to the previous year. The Booking share price rose significantly.

$SQ (+0,18%)
Block
exceeds analysts' estimates of $0.72 in the first quarter with earnings per share of $0.85. Revenue of $5.96 billion exceeds expectations of $5.83 billion.

$NET (+2,43%)
Cloudflare
first quarter earnings per share of $0.16 beat analysts' estimates of $0.13. Revenue of $378.6m beat expectations of $373.24m.

$NOVO B (+3%)
Novo-Nordisk achieves Q1 revenue of DKK 65.34bn (PY: DKK 53.36bn), EBIT of DKK 31.85bn (PY: DKK 25.00bn, analyst forecast: DKK 29.04bn) and net profit of DKK 25.40bn (PY: DKK 19.81bn). In the outlook for 2024, the company sees adjusted revenue growth of 19% to 27% (forecast: 25.9%) and an increase in operating profit of 22% to 30% (forecast: 28.6%). Weight loss aids such as Wegovy and the diabetes drug Ozempic are driving the figures and are currently meeting with very high demand, particularly in the USA. For 2024, the company is now forecasting currency-adjusted sales growth of 19% to 27% instead of the previous 18% to 26% and operating profit growth of 22% to 30% instead of 21% to 29%.

The FED also held another meeting this week and discussed interest rates. It was literally said: "The next interest rate move cannot be an increase". The prospect of June was also held out. The market will now almost certainly be pricing in a rate cut for June. If this does not happen or there are signs that it will be postponed again, it could correct sharply again. It will be interesting to see what the ECB does now. Their latest statement was that they no longer want to be dependent on the Fed when it comes to interest rate decisions. Let's see what will be decided there soon.

Next week we will continue with the quarterly figures. Of course, there were also a lot of figures from Germany and Europe. I will try to include a few from there next week without it becoming too much.

For now, I wish everyone a good weekend. Most of you will also have a short week next week.

Best regards from the Baltic coast

Martin

+++ New price targets for you 🎯 +++

As already announced this morning, I would like to present my new course targets in time for the sunny weekend ☀️ new course targets.

I have also lowered some existing targets further. downwards which you are welcome to include in your considerations.

As some people do not agree with the course targets, I would still ask you to consider the reality recognize the reality. ~Thank you!

-New price targets:

$COIN (+4,25%) 35.00 $

$MARA (+9,62%) 2.50 $

$SBUX (+3,28%) 42.00 $

$ETH (+0,95%) 800.00 $

$RI (-0,05%) 15.00 $

$META (+0,15%) 90.00 $

$1211 (-0,37%) 3.50 $

$AVGO (+0,78%) 300.00 $

$AMD (+1,27%) 30.00 $

$CRM (+1,87%) 51.00 $

$BA (+4,64%) 60.00 $

$SQ (+0,18%) 10.00 $

$BLK 108.00 $

$SWK (+1,92%) 15.00 $

$DASH (+3,1%) 55.00 $

$PEP (+1,38%) 70.00 $

-Downgrade of my previous price targets:

$SOFI (+4,38%) 0.85 $

$NKE (+3,44%) 45.00 $

$PYPL (+2,85%) 16.50 $

$BTC (+0,14%) 4500.00 $

$NVDA (-2,33%) 85.50 $

As there were also some requests from the community, I would like to name these as well:

$ACLS (+2,13%) 25.00 $

$ULTA (+1,48%) 88.00 $

$LULU (+1,05%) 30.00 $

$TUI1 (-0,31%) 1.25 €

$UBER (+3,37%) 18.00 $

$V (+0,68%) 155.00 $

$CO 0.01 $

$BRK.A (+1,14%) 187.000 $

🚀 Price potential 🚀

$TSLA (+4,29%) 400.00 $

$AWE (+8,3%) 23.00 $

$MSFT (+1,55%) 490.00 $

$AAPL (+1,26%) 300.00 $

$GOOGL (+0,04%) 220.00 $

$RHM (+1,88%) 1500.00 $

$O (+0,55%) 91.00 $

$AMZN (+0,2%) 270.00 $

$KO (+0,69%) 105.00 $

$MUX (+2,9%) 69.00 $

So have a great weekend and never forget, the belief in rising rates is as old as a dinosaur, but sometimes it feels like we're all stuck on a stick waiting for the next rocket launch! 🚀