Paycom Software

$PAYC (+1,24%) Paycom and Halloween, that has something 🥶😅

A year ago it went steeply downhill on Halloween, yesterday after trading and today almost +30% up 🤷🏽‍♂️

So the stock market remains exciting 📉📈

On this chart you can see what a strong resistance is 🧐

The area around 209$ has even withstood the good Q3 figures plus a strong outlook. Nice marks for swing traders😅

What happened to €100,000...

Or you could also say "Any monkey can beat the market" 😅

ttps://www.finanzen100.de/finanznachrichten/wirtschaft/wie-schimpansen-mit-dart-pfeilen-zu-den-besten-bankern-der-wall-street-wurden_H1960490147_546306/

At the end of the 3rd quarter, it's time for another update:

100,000€ invested from January of the respective year - B&H:

2022 Total return +43,526.00€ TTWROR 35.05% https://getqu.in/tcIuml/

2023 total return +€34,388.58 TTWROR 73.32% https://getqu.in/JjIr8V/

2024 Total return +€ 17,945.95 TTWROR 18.76% https://getqu.in/euJ994/

Highlights / Lowlights 2022:

$MELI (+0,65%) +142% / $META (-0,03%) +141% / $SAP (+0,09%) +100% / $RBLX -15%

Highlights / Lowlights 2023:

$RDC (-0,1%) +104% / $PAYC (+1,24%) -40%

Highlights / Lowlights 2024:

$ZAL (+0,29%) +76% / $9988 (-3%) +54% / $RKT (+0,16%) -10% / $KTN (+0,41%) -18%

For me, my 100k deposits are a nice (long-term) experiment. End of 2021 as #100kchallenge initiated for the year 2022. After the deep red 2022 year, I started the 2nd round in 2023 with only a few motivated people. Well, and in 2024 I started again on my own.

Now it's time to start thinking about 2025... Let's see which shares will go into my 2025 portfolio...🐵🐵🐵🐵

$PAYC (+1,24%) ...it's been a bit of a tale of woe with Paycom since Halloween 2023.

The last results were quite good, but the outlook was not quite what analysts were expecting.

Paycom estimates revenue of $434.00M-$438.00M in the second quarter of 2024. Experts had expected an average of $442.10M.

For the financial year 2024 to $ 1.86B-$ 1.89B. Experts had expected an average of $ 1.87B.

I have used the weakness of the last few days to increase the position slightly. I am convinced that it will recover in the medium term 🥹

My biggest additional purchase this month. I doubled my position with 2 tranches. The quarterly figures are due on Wednesday. If Paycom exceeds expectations again, I see a recovery to €220 as realistic.

Other additional purchases this month also include $PDX (-0,6%)
$UNH (-0,05%)
$DE (+0,03%)
$LIN (-0,21%) and $6367 (-0,88%)

In total, reserves amounting to around 2-3 net monthly salaries have been spent, including savings plans. In May, I will continue to move aggressively into the market and further reduce my considerable cash position before slowing down my investment pace towards the summer.

Nevertheless, always remember: time in the market beats market timing ⏱️ I may be buying too high now, but I also intend to stay in for a LONG time. In many positions even forever.

#shitliste 🙈

Actually, at the end of the rewind performance week I wanted to present my #bottomlinemagnificent7 aka #shitliste with some background information - but today has thrown a spanner in the works and I only have 6 candidates left 🚀- also OK - enough for me to leave some performance points behind.

Top 1 Alibaba $9988 (-3%)

History: I've been trading Alibaba for years, initially the ADRs $BABA (-2,88%) but then in the course of the delisting discussions after a sale I only got into the HK $9988 (-3%) after a sale.

I sold Baba near the high with a profit, but then got back in too early - falling knife - well, what can I say, a memorial in my portfolio - I did a lot wrong - especially an emotional attachment - because I have already been to Hangzhou myself and got to know the Chinese dynamic, I still cling to the belief of resurrection - and otherwise it will just remain a memorial. The position at least helps me to make a consistent hedge every time I look at the portfolio.

Future: No further purchases, hold until the bitter end, or start gradually offsetting losses at the end of 2024. If that doesn't happen soon, even I will lose faith. If the share turns positive in 2024, then hedge immediately at cost.

Top 2 Biontech $BNTX (-1,02%)

History: Similar to Alibaba, got in early, took one or two profits during the corona period, but also got in too early after the crash. Now I'm clinging to the pipeline a bit and believe / hope for a breakthrough in the cancer area. The first rays of hope have already been seen at Moderna with the same technology.

Future: No further acquisitions planned.
Keeping faith in a functioning cancer therapy for the time being.

Top3 Paycom $PAYC (+1,24%)

History: A nice stock that I traded in 2023, took small profits of up to 10% until the last entry. Soon after the last re-entry came Halloween - the post-market crash - na buum 1.000€ wiped out...

Future: Since I believe in the company, I bought 7 shares in the rebound after the crash to push down the equity - and now I'm waiting for things to happen and hoping for a return like with $ADYEN (-0,13%)
(was also once one of my fallen angels - fortunately now back up +25% due to purchases in the crash)

Top4 Ethereum $ETH (-0,18%)

History: At some point in 2021 also invested in Ethereum - too late - but what the heck - a hold-only position

Future: either it will be something or nothing - but no further acquisitions planned

Top5 British American Tobacco $BATS (-0,03%)

History: Gradually built up as a dividend position over the last few years to 222 shares - was already up nicely once but nice to see how the profits have "melted away" again with the trust in the smokers...

Future: No more acquisitions due to its size, but the dividend makes it easier to hold on to the share - but it's not for me forever, at least from today's perspective.

Top6 Bayer $BAYN (-0,05%)

History: Well, it has been trimmed several times, so far always with a profit, albeit sometimes a small one.

Future: As I find the price level tempting despite all the problems, I'm holding for the time being. However, there are currently no plans to make any additional purchases.

Lessons learned? With consistent hedging, I could have "saved" all my #bottomlinemagnificent7could have "spared" myself. But as is the case in real life - despite knowing better, you don't always act the way you intended to. The positive thing about it - there is still potential!

My conclusion from the last few years: The average performance was supported by avoiding losses, less bad was the one or other time getting out a little too early.

I have been tracking my portfolios with GQ since Dec21 - 2-year performance is ~25% - a 12.5% average which also corresponds roughly to my average over the last 10 years. Nothing spectacular, but consistent.

Have a nice weekend - long live the #shitliste 🤪

Ouch. -37% at $PAYC (+1,24%) suitable for Halloween 🥴 Fortunately only had on the watchlist. Was also a bit expensive for me with a 10 KUV.

Does anyone have them on the screen?