Good evening everyone,

Here are my favorites for the health sector.

Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-0,7%)

Stryker $SYK (+1,51%)

Intuitive Surgical (P/E ratio 70, P/B ratio 19 🤑) $ISRG (+1,9%)

Astra Zeneca $AZN (+0,12%)

Zoetis $ZTS (+1,03%)

Idexx Lab. $IDXX (-0,71%)

Amgen (profit margin declining) $AMGN (+0,76%)

I would be interested to know what your favorites are for a long-term investment?

Last week was observation, today I started to pick up a bit of what was on my watchlist 😊

starting with a share for the medical/healthcare sector $ISRG (+1,9%)

It is now slowly becoming clear who has what it takes to make good profits in the coming years.

Here are my top 30 companies by category, which I am particularly looking at in the current crash.

Some are still overvalued, others are already very attractive at the current price level.

Tier 1 (high corporate quality and strong growth)

Airbnb $ABNB (+0,29%)

Alphabet $GOOGL (-1,98%)

Amazon $AMZN (+0,25%)

ASML $ASML (-0,08%)

Axon $AXON (+2,31%)

Cadence $CDNS (+3,35%)

Constellation Software $CSU (+0,32%)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (+2,47%)

Fair Isaac $FICO (+1,22%)

Hermes $RMS (-0,06%)

Intuit $INTU (+0,22%)

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (+1,9%)

Mastercard $MA (-0,21%)

Meta $META (+0,53%)

Netflix $NFLX (+0,35%)

Microsoft $MSFT (+1,32%)

Palantir $PLTR (+4,68%)

Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%)

Tier-2 (high business quality and moderate growth)

Booking $BKNG (+0,21%)

Costco $COST (+0,14%)

Ferrari $RACE (+1,1%)

Moody's $MCO (+0,1%)

MSCI $MSCI (+1,01%)

Transdigm $TDG (+0,92%)

Tier-3 (medium / solid corporate quality and strong growth)

Hims & Hers $HIMS (-0,04%)

Robinhood $HOOD (+1,7%)

Roblox $RBLX

Shopify $SHOP (+2,12%)

Spotify $SPOT (+2,68%)

The Trade Desk $TTD (-0,15%)

I bought on Friday and am buying again today - even in the course of the next few days and weeks, when we could probably see even lower prices.

Where are you buying?

$DHR (+0,63%) is now back at the level of 4 years ago and has been moving more or less sideways at this level for around 6 weeks. The development of the last few quarters was not good, but the forecast is positive again. EPS is expected to rise in the higher double-digit percentage range in Q1 and even more strongly in the further course of the year. Out of 18 analysts (yes, I know) there are 13x Buy/Strong Buy and 5x Hold.

Would the share now be a buy for you, or would you rather go for other candidates (which ones?). Of course, in the medical (technology) sector $ISRG (+1,9%) which have also recently corrected considerably, but are still valued much higher with a notoriously different chart trend. I'm planning to add further here anyway.

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/dhr/forecast/

"A bit of stagnation - and above all more inflation" is the title of the Bank of America economists' new forecast.

In such a scenario, companies with pricing power are in demand, i.e. those that can pass on rising costs to customers. These are companies that are already making good profits today and not in the too distant future. Their profits will not be greatly affected by higher interest rates. The companies must not be too cyclical; after all, they must also be able to withstand an economic slowdown.

The investment bank Goldman Sachs has compiled a list of 102 stocks that can still hold their own in a stagflation.

Analysts see the greatest price potential in commodity companies such as $MTDR (+0,56%)
Matador Resources, $CVE (-0,19%)
Cenovus Energy, $AA (-2,37%)
Alcoa and $DVN (+0,11%)
Devon Energy. The average price target for these stocks is around 40 percent above the current value. They are followed by tech companies such as $AMZN (+0,25%)
Amazon, $GOOGL (-1,98%)
Alphabet, $MSFT (+1,32%)
Microsoft, $META (+0,53%)
Meta and $ISRG (+1,9%)
Intuitive Surgical. The professionals put the potential here at at least 30 percent. This is followed by other commodities and media groups such as $SLB (-0,57%)
Schlumberger, $COP (+0,25%)
Conocophillips, $RIO (-1,8%)
Rio Tinto and $OXY (+0,17%)
Occidental Petroleum with a potential of between 25 and 30 percent.

Also $WMT (-0,63%)
Walmart is also on the list; analysts see a price potential of 27 percent for the retailer. For the conglomerate $DHR (+0,63%)
Danaher experts expect 25 percent and the railroad company $CNR (-0,36%)
Canadian National Railway is also at the top of the list.

Source (excerpt): WELT / Graphic: ChatGPT

Airbnb $ABNB (+0,29%)

Amazon $AMZN (+0,25%)

Axon $AXON (+2,31%)

Cadence $CDNS (+3,35%)

Constellation Software $CSU (+0,32%)

Costco $COST (+0,14%)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (+2,47%)

Fair Isaac $FICO (+1,22%)

Ferrari $RACE (+1,1%)

Hermes $RMS (-0,06%)

Hims & Hers $HIMS (-0,04%)

Intuit $INTU (+0,22%)

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (+1,9%)

Mastercard $MA (-0,21%)

Microsoft $MSFT (+1,32%)

Moody's $MCO (-0%)

MSCI $MSCI (+1,01%)

Palantir $PLTR (+4,68%)

Robinhood $HOOD (+1,7%)

Roblox $RBLX

Shopify $SHOP (+2,12%)

Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%)

The Trade Desk $TTD (-0,15%)

Transdigm $TDG (+0,92%)

Select a maximum of 8-10 positions from this list that have the best risk/reward ratio and are reasonably valued. Then there is a good chance of outperforming the S&P 500.

Your opinion?

Hims & Hers $HIMS (-0,04%) has recently had a strong run:

Performance YTD: +140%

Performance 1 year: +553%

Currently Hims & Hers $HIMS (-0,04%) with a price / sales ratio of 10,6x with an expected annual sales growth of >50% for the next 2 years.

Here you can see the ratio for other selected companies with expected double-digit sales growth for the next few years:

Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%) 11.7x (17% sales CAGR next 2 years)

ServiceNow $NOW : 18,5x (19%)

Shopify $SHOP (+2,12%): 18,7x (22%)

Robinhood $HOOD (+1,7%) : 19,6x (16%)

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (+1,9%) : 25,4x (15%)

Axon Enterprise $AXON (+2,31%) : 26,9x (28%)

Duolingo $DUOL : 27,6x (35%)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (+2,47%) : 29,7x (25%)

Palantir $PLTR (+4,68%) : 94,7x (29%)

The comparison is, of course, a bit of a stretch, but it is still interesting to see how Hims & Hers $HIMS (-0,04%) stands relative to other companies.

What do you think?

Since I $ISRG (+1,9%) unfortunately ran out, I looked around for alternatives and came across the most important supplier. This is the $SUS (+2,19%) . I find it very interesting for the long-term part of my portfolio. Perhaps someone else has already looked into the company. Intuitive Surgical recently broke the sound barrier. For the first time, the global market leader for robot-assisted surgery is valued at over 200 billion dollars on the stock market. The US medtech giant's flagship product: the Da Vinci surgical systems. Robots have become indispensable in more and more operating theaters. However, Intuitive Surgical is also dependent on suppliers, for example for simulation software. Here, the Americans rely on the expertise of Surgical Science Sweden. The Scandinavians focus on medical simulation training and software solutions. Healthcare professionals can be taught and trained with the products from Surgical Science Sweden. Whether ultrasound, surgical procedures or routine examinations such as bronchoscopies or colonoscopies - the Swedes cover the entire range. In addition to Surgical Science Sweden's largest customer, robotics specialist Intuitive Surgical, its select clientele also includes medtech giants such as Abbott, Stryker, Boston Scientific and Medtronic. It was only in mid-January that the Swedish company intensified its collaboration with Intuitive Surgical with regard to the simulation software used in the Da Vinci systems. Together, they switched to a fully subscription-based revenue model until 2028. Full precision: The robotic arms of the Intuitive Surgical systems have become indispensable in many operating theaters. Surgical Science Sweden supplies the software for training. This increases the need for simulation software, which Surgical Science Sweden can supply. In recent years, the innovative medtech company has also grown through acquisitions. Just before Christmas, the management team led by CEO Tom Englund announced the acquisition of the British company Intelligent Ultrasound, a specialist in ultrasound simulation. The cost: 45.2 million British pounds (equivalent to 54.4 million euros). A clever move that not only expands Surgical Science Sweden's product portfolio, but also gives it direct access to the British market. Headquartered in Gothenburg, the company has already established local presences in the USA, Israel and China in addition to its headquarters in its home country. The decision-makers at Intelligent Ultrasound have approved the transaction, now the shareholders have to give the green light. Profitable growth Surgical Science Sweden has also seen a significant jump in sales and profits during the coronavirus pandemic thanks to the successful integration of SenseGraphics (2019) and Mimic and Simbionix (both 2021). In 2019, the Scandinavian company reported revenue of 101.5 million Swedish kronor (8.89 million euros) and a net profit of 12.6 million kronor (1.10 million euros). In 2023, Surgical Science Sweden earned a net profit of 234 million kronor (20.5 million euros) on sales of just under 883 million kronor (77.4 million euros). 2024 is likely to have been a year of transition, and growth at Surgical Science Sweden should pick up again from 2025. Analysts expect profits to double between 2023 and 2026, which would bring the P/E ratio down to an attractive 25 next year - with sales rising to just under 113 million euros. Growth opportunities in Asia The Asian market in particular offers considerable organic growth potential for Surgical Science Sweden. The company was recently selected by the Ministry of Defense of a Southeast Asian country to supply 30 units of its TraumaVR simulator. This will be used to train the country's military medical personnel. Value: around 4.5 million euros. - Top position in the niche Surgical Science Sweden operates in a fast-growing market with manageable competition. The company is already benefiting from the success of Intuitive Surgical's surgical robots. The company's share is also in bullish shape again on the chart.

The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (+0,04%) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (+1,51%) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (+2,68%) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (-0,7%) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (+2,83%) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (-0,66%) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (+1,37%) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (+0,07%) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (+1,56%) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (+2,09%) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (-0,31%) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (-0,04%) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (-1,5%) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (+1,36%) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (+0,33%) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (-0,06%) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (+0,37%) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (+0,7%) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (+1,1%) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (+0,27%) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (-0,34%) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (-0,35%) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (-0,58%) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (+1,99%) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (+3,46%) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (+1,9%) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (+3,19%) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/