Over the last few weeks, I have been looking at shares from a new perspective and have started to take a closer look at balance sheets and fundamental data. 🤯

Unfortunately, I still don't use a screener and have therefore only looked at the stocks that I am familiar with in some form.

In view of the tradable shares on the global market, this is certainly a big mistake and I have some catching up to do. Nevertheless, I would like to share some of my findings with you.

I have created two lists for this purpose.

On the lists you will find stocks that in my opinion have excellent fundamental quality characteristics.

The first list contains the absolute quality companies, some of which have already proven themselves over many years, and the second list contains companies that could still become such or have not yet proven themselves long enough and could therefore be a good long-term investment. The lists are neither correct nor complete and, depending on your point of view, some stocks belong on one list or the other, or perhaps not on any list at all.

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Quality companies:

• Visa$V (-3,45%)

Duopoly, very strong profit margin,

Risks: Google Pay/Apple Pay etc.

• Waste Management$WM (-0,58%)

Long-term contracts, strong balance sheet, regular share buybacks

• Stryker$SYK (-1,89%)

• Intuitive Surgical$ISRG (-3,1%)

• Novo Nordisk$NOVO B (-4,31%)

• Essilor Luxottica$EL (-2,07%)

Strong moat, good growth,

Weaknesses: low return on equity

• Hershey$HSY (-1,95%)

Solid cash flow, >50% return on equity,

Weaknesses: approx. 90 % of sales generated in the USA, trend towards healthier food

• ASML$ASML (-1,25%)

• Alphabet$GOOGL (-2,99%)

• Hermes$RMS (-2,92%)

• Wal-Mart de Mexico$WALMEX* (-0,75%)

The only retail food group I know of with a significant margin of

significant margin of >5%, stable growth and healthy balance sheet,

Growing middle class in Mexico and expansion in Central America.

Weaknesses: Mexican peso

• Lotus Bakeries$LOTB (-0,31%)

Continuous sales and profit growth, very nice balance sheet, but a high stock valuation

high stock valuation (like the vast majority in this list)

• Ferrari$RACE (-1,76%)

• Zoeties$ZTS (-3,41%)

Market leader, high margin, solid cash flow, growing dividend,

• Idexx Laboratories$IDXX (+0,89%)

Very nice growth stock with high customer loyalty, strong growth, >80%

return on equity, solid balance sheet,

• alliance$ALV (-3,62%)

• Microsoft$MSFT (-1,77%)

• Procter & Gamble$PG (-0,28%)

• Pepsi$PEP (+0,02%)

• Adobe$ADBE (-2,31%)

• L'Oreal$OR (+1,31%)

• Schneider Electric$SU (-6,44%)

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Opportunities and future quality Company?

• Rio Tinto$RIO (-5,21%)

• 3i$III (-5,64%)

• Main Street Capital$MAIN (-3,33%)

• Mutares$MUX (-5,71%)

• Altria$MO (+0,8%)

• Terna$TRN (-1,2%)

• Pfizer$PFE (-2,49%)

• Vinci$DG (-2,82%)

• Mercadolibre$MELI (-3,08%)

• Caterpillar$CAT (-6,15%)

• BAE Systems$BA. (-5,71%)

• Lululemon$LULU (-5,74%)

• Generali$G (-4,88%)

• Energiekontor$EKT (-5,12%)

• Vici$VICI (-0,71%)

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Thanks for reading and I look forward to additions, corrections and exchanges of opinion.

Are there any of the stocks mentioned that are of particular interest to you?

Has anyone delved particularly deeply into one or other stock?

Then have a nice weekend 🥳

$DHR (-3,39%) is now back at the level of 4 years ago and has been moving more or less sideways at this level for around 6 weeks. The development of the last few quarters was not good, but the forecast is positive again. EPS is expected to rise in the higher double-digit percentage range in Q1 and even more strongly in the further course of the year. Out of 18 analysts (yes, I know) there are 13x Buy/Strong Buy and 5x Hold.

Would the share now be a buy for you, or would you rather go for other candidates (which ones?). Of course, in the medical (technology) sector $ISRG (-3,1%) which have also recently corrected considerably, but are still valued much higher with a notoriously different chart trend. I'm planning to add further here anyway.

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/dhr/forecast/

"A bit of stagnation - and above all more inflation" is the title of the Bank of America economists' new forecast.

In such a scenario, companies with pricing power are in demand, i.e. those that can pass on rising costs to customers. These are companies that are already making good profits today and not in the too distant future. Their profits will not be greatly affected by higher interest rates. The companies must not be too cyclical; after all, they must also be able to withstand an economic slowdown.

The investment bank Goldman Sachs has compiled a list of 102 stocks that can still hold their own in a stagflation.

Analysts see the greatest price potential in commodity companies such as $MTDR (-3,72%)
Matador Resources, $CVE (-5,69%)
Cenovus Energy, $AA (-6,59%)
Alcoa and $DVN (-6,64%)
Devon Energy. The average price target for these stocks is around 40 percent above the current value. They are followed by tech companies such as $AMZN (-6,66%)
Amazon, $GOOGL (-2,99%)
Alphabet, $MSFT (-1,77%)
Microsoft, $META (-5,36%)
Meta and $ISRG (-3,1%)
Intuitive Surgical. The professionals put the potential here at at least 30 percent. This is followed by other commodities and media groups such as $SLB (-3,31%)
Schlumberger, $COP (-4,96%)
Conocophillips, $RIO (-5,21%)
Rio Tinto and $OXY (-4,85%)
Occidental Petroleum with a potential of between 25 and 30 percent.

Also $WMT (-2,47%)
Walmart is also on the list; analysts see a price potential of 27 percent for the retailer. For the conglomerate $DHR (-3,39%)
Danaher experts expect 25 percent and the railroad company $CNR (-2,51%)
Canadian National Railway is also at the top of the list.

Source (excerpt): WELT / Graphic: ChatGPT

Airbnb $ABNB (-3,89%)

Amazon $AMZN (-6,66%)

Axon $AXON (-4,47%)

Cadence $CDNS (-3,98%)

Constellation Software $CSU (-4,03%)

Costco $COST (-1,07%)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (-4,48%)

Fair Isaac $FICO (-4,22%)

Ferrari $RACE (-1,76%)

Hermes $RMS (-2,92%)

Hims & Hers $HIMS (-5,73%)

Intuit $INTU (-0,42%)

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (-3,1%)

Mastercard $MA (-3,21%)

Microsoft $MSFT (-1,77%)

Moody's $MCO (-0%)

MSCI $MSCI (-3,91%)

Palantir $PLTR (-4,44%)

Robinhood $HOOD (-6,35%)

Roblox $RBLX

Shopify $SHOP (-6,55%)

Tesla $TSLA (-5,23%)

The Trade Desk $TTD (-5,29%)

Transdigm $TDG (-2,74%)

Select a maximum of 8-10 positions from this list that have the best risk/reward ratio and are reasonably valued. Then there is a good chance of outperforming the S&P 500.

Your opinion?

Hims & Hers $HIMS (-5,73%) has recently had a strong run:

Performance YTD: +140%

Performance 1 year: +553%

Currently Hims & Hers $HIMS (-5,73%) with a price / sales ratio of 10,6x with an expected annual sales growth of >50% for the next 2 years.

Here you can see the ratio for other selected companies with expected double-digit sales growth for the next few years:

Tesla $TSLA (-5,23%) 11.7x (17% sales CAGR next 2 years)

ServiceNow $NOW : 18,5x (19%)

Shopify $SHOP (-6,55%): 18,7x (22%)

Robinhood $HOOD (-6,35%) : 19,6x (16%)

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (-3,1%) : 25,4x (15%)

Axon Enterprise $AXON (-4,47%) : 26,9x (28%)

Duolingo $DUOL : 27,6x (35%)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (-4,48%) : 29,7x (25%)

Palantir $PLTR (-4,44%) : 94,7x (29%)

The comparison is, of course, a bit of a stretch, but it is still interesting to see how Hims & Hers $HIMS (-5,73%) stands relative to other companies.

What do you think?

Since I $ISRG (-3,1%) unfortunately ran out, I looked around for alternatives and came across the most important supplier. This is the $SUS (-2,7%) . I find it very interesting for the long-term part of my portfolio. Perhaps someone else has already looked into the company. Intuitive Surgical recently broke the sound barrier. For the first time, the global market leader for robot-assisted surgery is valued at over 200 billion dollars on the stock market. The US medtech giant's flagship product: the Da Vinci surgical systems. Robots have become indispensable in more and more operating theaters. However, Intuitive Surgical is also dependent on suppliers, for example for simulation software. Here, the Americans rely on the expertise of Surgical Science Sweden. The Scandinavians focus on medical simulation training and software solutions. Healthcare professionals can be taught and trained with the products from Surgical Science Sweden. Whether ultrasound, surgical procedures or routine examinations such as bronchoscopies or colonoscopies - the Swedes cover the entire range. In addition to Surgical Science Sweden's largest customer, robotics specialist Intuitive Surgical, its select clientele also includes medtech giants such as Abbott, Stryker, Boston Scientific and Medtronic. It was only in mid-January that the Swedish company intensified its collaboration with Intuitive Surgical with regard to the simulation software used in the Da Vinci systems. Together, they switched to a fully subscription-based revenue model until 2028. Full precision: The robotic arms of the Intuitive Surgical systems have become indispensable in many operating theaters. Surgical Science Sweden supplies the software for training. This increases the need for simulation software, which Surgical Science Sweden can supply. In recent years, the innovative medtech company has also grown through acquisitions. Just before Christmas, the management team led by CEO Tom Englund announced the acquisition of the British company Intelligent Ultrasound, a specialist in ultrasound simulation. The cost: 45.2 million British pounds (equivalent to 54.4 million euros). A clever move that not only expands Surgical Science Sweden's product portfolio, but also gives it direct access to the British market. Headquartered in Gothenburg, the company has already established local presences in the USA, Israel and China in addition to its headquarters in its home country. The decision-makers at Intelligent Ultrasound have approved the transaction, now the shareholders have to give the green light. Profitable growth Surgical Science Sweden has also seen a significant jump in sales and profits during the coronavirus pandemic thanks to the successful integration of SenseGraphics (2019) and Mimic and Simbionix (both 2021). In 2019, the Scandinavian company reported revenue of 101.5 million Swedish kronor (8.89 million euros) and a net profit of 12.6 million kronor (1.10 million euros). In 2023, Surgical Science Sweden earned a net profit of 234 million kronor (20.5 million euros) on sales of just under 883 million kronor (77.4 million euros). 2024 is likely to have been a year of transition, and growth at Surgical Science Sweden should pick up again from 2025. Analysts expect profits to double between 2023 and 2026, which would bring the P/E ratio down to an attractive 25 next year - with sales rising to just under 113 million euros. Growth opportunities in Asia The Asian market in particular offers considerable organic growth potential for Surgical Science Sweden. The company was recently selected by the Ministry of Defense of a Southeast Asian country to supply 30 units of its TraumaVR simulator. This will be used to train the country's military medical personnel. Value: around 4.5 million euros. - Top position in the niche Surgical Science Sweden operates in a fast-growing market with manageable competition. The company is already benefiting from the success of Intuitive Surgical's surgical robots. The company's share is also in bullish shape again on the chart.

The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (-1,66%) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (-1,89%) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (-4,07%) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (-4,31%) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (-3,28%) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (-3,85%) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (-3,08%) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (-1,74%) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (-3,02%) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (+1,14%) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (-4,71%) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (-5,73%) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (+1,31%) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (-8,7%) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (-3,83%) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (-2,92%) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (-5,81%) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (-4,39%) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (-5,86%) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (-5,16%) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (-2,99%) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (-4,03%) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (-2,31%) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (-3,93%) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (-6,63%) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (-3,1%) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (-5,44%) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/

The financial markets have provided us with some exciting developments this week. Today's newsletter brings you the most important events in a compact and understandable way:

From DeepSeekthe Chinese AI start-up that has surprised the technology sector with an innovative approach, to the latest interest rate decisions of the central banks, to the mixed quarterly quarterly figures from Tesla - it was a week full of headlines.

Enjoy reading!

DeepSeek: China's new AI player and its consequences

The Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek has caused quite a stir with its new model DeepSeek R1. The AI chatbot, launched on January 20, is now one of the most downloaded apps worldwide. In the USA, it currently occupies 1st place in the iPhone app storeeven ahead of ChatGPT or Google's Gemini. The app is also one of the top downloads in Germany. Users can chat with the AI, upload files or carry out web searches - and the basic version is free.

What makes it special: DeepSeek's chatbot is said to require significantly less computing power than comparable models from large US companies such as OpenAI or Google $GOOGL (-2,99%) . According to reports, around 2,000 Nvidia H800 graphics processors were used to train DeepSeek-R1, resulting in costs of around 6 million US dollars. By comparison, OpenAI invested around USD 100 million in the development of GPT-4 in 2023. This efficiency calls into question the previous assumption that high-performance AI models necessarily require investments in the billions and specialized high-performance chips. If these figures prove to be true, this could increase the pressure on US companies to rethink their cost structures and investment strategies.

This surprising development and the associated uncertainty triggered a significant reaction on the stock market on Monday. The US tech index Nasdaq 100 lost around 3%, and Nvidia in particular $NVDA (-4,17%) - the leading provider of chips for AI applications, which has benefited enormously from the AI trend in recent years - fell by almost 17%. Companies such as Broadcom $AVGO (-5,2%) , AMD $AMD (-4,7%) , ASML $ASML (-1,25%) and Microsoft $MSFT (-1,77%) also came under pressure in the meantime. Most tech stocks stabilized somewhat over the course of the week. This is because some experts are questioning the transparency of DeepSeek's data from China and are urging caution when assessing the actual performance and efficiency of the model. It is already becoming apparent that DeepSeek's actual cost advantages could be lower than initially assumed - further developments remain to be seen.

What you as an investor can learn from the DeepSeek turmoil:

• #1: Don't panic - markets often tend to exaggerate in both directions: Tech stocks are sensitive to sensationalized headlines. Share prices can move rapidly up or down in the short term, regardless of the substance of the news. Sharp price losses happen again and again - and are often followed by a quick recovery. It is important to remain calm and not be tempted to sell rashly.

• # 2: Corrections bring opportunities: Sharp price falls like those on Monday often offer good buying opportunities - especially for quality companies with long-term potential and reasonable valuations, e.g. ASML $ASML (-1,25%) . As long as companies are fundamentally sound, short-term setbacks are usually no cause for concern.

• #3: AI competition is getting tougher - this is positive for innovation and adoption: DeepSeek shows that AI development does not necessarily have to be extremely expensive. More competition and the supposedly new, innovative approach could lead to AI models becoming even more efficient and widely available.

• #4: The technology sector is constantly changing: The technology sector is one of the most rapidly changing markets. Companies that are considered market leaders today can be challenged or displaced by new innovations within a few years. As an investor, you should therefore regularly check whether your technology investments will remain competitive in the long term. Do you only have quality companies in your portfolio with sustainable competitive advantages and attractive future prospects? Or is their market position crumbling, e.g. due to the introduction of new technologies?

Interest rate decisions: What the ECB and Fed mean for the market

This week there were two landmark interest rate decisions - one in Europe, one in the USA.

A brief reminder: Developments and expectations regarding key interest rates are a decisive factor for the stock market. Falling interest rates make loans cheaper and boost investment and consumption. This often causes share prices to rise. Rising interest rates, on the other hand, slow down growth and make alternative investments such as bonds more attractive - this can put pressure on shares.

• ECB lowers key interest rate to 2.75 percent - potential stimulus for the economy: The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its key interest rate for the fifth time since the monetary policy turnaround at the end of 2023. The monetary authorities decided to lower the deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75%. ECB chief Christine Lagarde justified the move with the weakening economy. The EU statistics office reported zero growth in the last quarter of 2024, with growth of just 0.7% for the year as a whole. The aim of the interest rate cut: cheaper loans for companies and private individuals to boost investment and consumption.

• US Federal Reserve remains firm - no interest rate cut (yet): While the ECB is cutting interest rates, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is standing firm. Despite political pressure from Donald Trump, the Fed has decided to leave the key interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The reason: the US economy remains strong - growth is continuing and inflation has not yet been conquered. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that a premature interest rate cut could jeopardize the fight against rising prices.

Hot phase of the reporting season for many companies in the S&P 500

We are currently in the middle of the phase in which many US companies publish their figures for the last quarter. The following chart from Fundstrat provides an overview of the results so far and how they have been received by the market:

As of Wednesday this week, 103 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 have reported their quarterly results for Q4 2024. 79% of the companies have beaten exceeded earnings estimateswhich indicates an overall strong operating performance. The positive surprise factor of 6.1% shows that companies are performing better than analysts had expected. The S&P 500 is up 3.2% since 12/31/2024, also indicating positive market sentiment. The solid earnings season so far therefore appears to be boosting investor confidence in corporate earnings.

The reports and forecasts of some heavyweights such as Meta $META (-5,36%) , ASML $ASML (-1,25%) , Netflix $NFLX (-2,24%) , Mastercard $MA (-3,21%) and Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (-3,1%) were well received by investors mostly well well received by investors. Microsoft $MSFT (-1,77%) on the other hand, showed a rather subdued share price reaction to the results presented and the short-term outlook. Tesla Tesla $TSLA (-5,23%) a company in my portfolio, also presented its figures this week for Q4 2024 with mixed results. The most important findings are summarized here in a compact and understandable way:

• Tesla has in 2024 around 1.8 million vehicles delivered in 2024 - an increase of 36% compared to 2022, but no further increase compared to 2023. With sales of 25.7 billion US dollars in Q4, Tesla achieved a slight increase of 2% compared to the previous year, but still fell short of analysts' high expectations. Margins and profits also fell due to price cuts and financing options. The positive ray of hope was once again the solar systems and energy storage division, where sales doubled to more than USD 3 billion and are expected to grow by >50% growth in 2025. Another positive aspect is the rising cash position, which now stands at USD 36 billion - as far as I know, only the big tech companies such as Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Microsoft, Meta (formerly Facebook), Apple and Nvidia have a higher value.

• Despite the mixed results, Tesla shares remained surprisingly stable after CEO Elon Musk reiterated his vision for the coming years. Tesla announced that from June 2025 a fully autonomous driving service without a human driver in Austin, Texas, from June 2025 - and is expected to roll it out in other US cities by the end of the year. Cheaper e-models are planned for the first half of 2025 with the aim of making electric mobility accessible to even more people. Tesla also plans to produce several thousand of the humanoid robot "Optimus" and put them to good use in its own factories. Ideally, the first robots should be sold to external customers by the end of 2026 - an idea that is arousing the curiosity of many, as it could be used not only in companies but also in private households in the future.

To put things in context: The company is 2024/25 in a transition phase between two growth cycles. The first phase began at the end of the 2010s with the scaling of electric cars, while a new boost is expected from 2026/27/28 due to the introduction of autonomous driving and humanoid robots.

Finally, some noteworthy quotes from the earnings call from Elon Musk - as always, to be interpreted with caution. Tesla's current high valuation is not based on measurable sales and earnings growth, but above all on ambitious plans for the future, which are fraught with uncertainty:

• At the Launch of autonomous driving in the USA: "We live at this unbelievable inflection point in human history. We're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June."

• On the scenario of other car manufacturers licensing Tesla's software license "At this point, we're seeing significant interest from a number of major car companies about licensing Tesla full self-driving technology."

• The prospect of Tesla becoming the most valuable company in the world in the long term: "I've said this before and I'll stand by it. I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined. It's a difficult path but it is an achievable path. And that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots."

• Musk also gave a few details on the development and production of the humanoid robot"The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. So the current line that we're designing is for roughly 1,000 units a month. The next line would be for 10,000 units a month. The line after that would be for 100,000 units a month. My very rough guess is that we start delivering Optimus robots to companies that are outside of Tesla in maybe the second half of next year. I'm confident at 1 million units a year, that the production cost of Optimus will be less than $20,000."

• On the Significance of the year 2025 in Tesla's company history: "2025 really is a pivotal year for Tesla. And when you go look back on 2025 and the launch of unsupervised full self-driving, I think we may regard it as the most important year in Tesla's history. There is no company in the world that is as good at real-world AI as Tesla. I don't even know who's in second place."

I bought my last Tesla shares in August 2024 at €196 - I only plan to buy more when the valuation becomes more realistic and attractive again. I consider a fair valuation to be a price/sales ratio in the range of 8-12x (currently 13x), below that an entry would be much more interesting.

Thank you for reading.

Stay informed and invest wisely.

Installed Da Vinci systems (surgical robots)

2014: 3.266

2015: 3.597

2016: 3.919

2017: 4.409

2018: 4.986

2019: 5.582

2020: 5.989

2021: 6.730

2022: 7.544

2023: 8.606

2024: 9.902

Share price

2014: 58.77 US dollars

2024: 521.96 US dollars

Are you on board with Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (-3,1%) on board?

$ISRG (-3,1%)

• Sales: USD 2.41 billion (estimated USD 2.24 billion); increase of +25 % compared to the previous year
• Earnings per share: USD 2.21 (estimated USD 1.75); increase of +38% compared to the previous year
• Net profit (non-GAAP): USD 805 million (increase of 40% compared to the previous year)

Segment sales:

Instruments and accessories:

• Sales: USD 1.41 billion (estimated USD 1.35 billion) ; increase of 23% compared to the previous year
• The growth is due to an 18% increase in da Vinci procedure volume and a 70% increase in ion procedure volume.

System sales:

• Sales: $655 million (estimated $536.22 million) ; 36% increase over prior year
• Includes 493 da Vinci surgical systems placed, an increase of 415 over the prior year.

Revenue from services:

• Sales: USD 346 million (estimated USD 346.12 million)

Operating Highlights:

• Global da Vinci processes: Growth of +18% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Da Vinci Surgical System placements: 493 systems, including 174 da Vinci 5 systems; installed base increased to 9,902 (up 15% year-on-year).
• Operating income (non-GAAP): $928 million (49% increase over prior year).
• Operating income (GAAP): USD 735 million (increase of 63 % compared to the previous year).

Forecast 2025:

• Global growth in da Vinci procedures: 13-16% (growth in 2024: 17%)
• Non-GAAP gross margin: 67-68% (2024: 69.1%) .
• Growth in operating costs: 10-15 % (2024: 10 %) .

Cash flow and financial health:

• Cash, cash equivalents and investments: USD 8.83 billion (increase of USD 521 million compared to the previous quarter) .
• Free cash flow: USD 878 million (estimated USD 878 million) .

CEO's comment:

• "Strong growth in procedures driven by the continued rollout of the da Vinci system and the increased number of Ion procedures. We have significantly expanded our installed base, ensuring broader access to minimally invasive care."

Further insights:

• Foundation contributions: USD 45 million in Q4 2024 (compared to USD 40 million in the previous year).
• Leasing trends: Increase in systems leased on a usage basis (140 systems in Q4 2024 compared to 109 in the previous year)
• R&D investments: Focus on developing advanced robotics and expanding system accessibility.

#earnings
#quartalszahlen