3Mes·

MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin

I found it at "we love shares". What do you think? Actually, it's clear that as long as the $BTC (-0,38%) rises, so does $MSTR (+5,34%)
. But for how much longer?

https://youtu.be/71-t1xuCqH8?si=vFesfftw7xjqALXz

www.youtube.comDas Kartenhaus von MicroStrategy und Michael Saylor

27 Commenti

Stefan21@stefan_21

3Mes

If Bitcoin falls, Microstrategy will also fall. As a result, demand for the convertible bonds may (perhaps) collapse and they will not be able to accumulate any more Bitcoin. Issuing new shares is then probably also less sensible. That is why they are now buying so aggressively when prices rise.
The convertible bonds all have very long maturities. I don't see the risk of liquidation when prices fall.
In my opinion, the greater risk is the custody at Coinbase. If something goes wrong at some point, things could really go wrong. Also because of all the spot ETFs, all of which are held at Coinbase.

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~ S.@Semos25

3Mes

@stefan_21 But isn't that already too risky? You can possibly achieve a nice return in a short time, but even that is simply too risky for me. I took advantage of the rise yesterday and sold my shares in Microstr. Now I'm investing the money in something else.

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Mes

@Semos25 The argument for an investment only exists if you are convinced that Bitcoin will rise in value in the long term.
The promise of MSTR is a "Bitcoin Yield". You are effectively buying a box of Bitcoin that contains more Bitcoin all by itself. The goal is clearly to increase the Bitcoin/share. Without this premise, MSTR will not buy any Bitcoin - as he said in a recent interview. If you want to take a look, I would find the link :)

This has the advantage of a higher return than Bitcoin - with greater risk. You are dependent on the management's decisions and have to trust that the business model will work out. I've put a very small position in my portfolio and will see what happens passiert🤷‍♂️

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~ S.@Semos25

3Mes

@stefan_21 that would be great if you could give me the link, if of course you don't mind. May I ask how many positions you have?

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Mes

@Semos25 here is the link to the interview with Julian von Relai :)
https://youtu.be/isZToNExRdY?si=GYZfcUwKfxobhcrn
There you can learn a lot about Saylor's strategy.
My Microstrategy position is about 4% compared to my Bitcoin position :)

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~ S.@Semos25

3Mes

@stefan_21 Thanks for the link. Thank you also for giving me your shares as a math problem 🤣 joking aside. In any case, I wish you good luck with the shares and that it pays off. It's enough for me that I have Bitcoin in my portfolio 😍

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Mes

@Semos25 You're welcome😂
Since I generally don't talk about how much Bitcoin I have, I can't tell you exactly how big my other positions are :D

Sooner or later I will sell the shares and buy Bitcoin :) For me, this is currently a small bet on the side to accumulate even more Bitcoin.

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~ S.@Semos25

3Mes

@stefan_21 understandable.
You shouldn't really talk about money either ☺️ I'm not surprised that you want to invest the money in Bitcoin later on. It's definitely the best decision ✊

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Malte@Malte123

3Mes

@stefan_21 Have you even watched the video?

Especially the significant premium you pay for micro compared to the Bitcoin equivalent (I mean 40%?) and the almost irrelevant software business...

Plus no exit strategy and convertible bonds with 0% interest🤣

If I want to speculate on Microstrategy I'd rather buy shorts soon, if it's just about gambling I'd rather go straight to the casino, why take the detour via such a hype stock?

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Mes

@Malte123 No, I haven't watched the video. However, I have been working with Microstrategy for some time.

The question is how much monetary premium something is worth that accumulates more and more Bitcoin/share while you hold it. Something like that should be worth more than the underlying asset - don't you think?

Why is 0% interest negative? Microstrategy can borrow money at 0% - can you? They have created a bridge between the bond market and Bitcoin. Bond buyers can earn extraordinary returns with less risk. Before, the bond market couldn't participate in Bitcoin's returns - now it can. Bonds are incredibly sought-after and heavily overbought every time. Personally, I don't find this a laughing matter, but very impressive.

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Malte@Malte123

3Mes

@stefan_21 You think a 40% premium to the Bitcoin price is ok for a share that is constantly being diluted by the issue of new shares/convertible bonds?

0% interest is negative because the only reason to buy these bonds is to speculate on a later conversion at a higher price.

The bond itself does not yield any return, it only gives the vague promise of getting shares at a lower price later.

Let's hope that there will still be people willing to "invest" more money in the company for a long time to come.

What I personally find most impressive is the absolute conviction with which people give in to the ramblings of any CEO🤣
What is he supposed to say? That the price will collapse massively in the next Bitcoin correction and that there is no exit strategy?

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~ S.@Semos25

3Mes

@stefan_21 I have to ask you something here. Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum have corrected in the last few days, xrp not so much, has kept the 2.30 mark. Before that it was falling below the 2 dollar mark. if bitcoin and the rest are on the rise again then xrp can probably crack the 3 dollar mark, or do I have the wrong mindset.

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Stefan21@stefan_21

3Mes

@Semos25 Maybe, but not necessarily :)
I personally don't think much of XRP at all - but as a bitcoiner, I'm also a bit biased. Ripple has financed smear campaigns against Bitcoin several times in the past and also lobbied in Brussels to persuade politicians that Bitcoin is so bad for the environment and XRP is so great😅

I can't answer whether XRP will rise or fall in the near future. However, it feels like the positive regulation in the US under Trump and the new SEC leadership should have a positive effect. However, the XRP coin has no real function in the Ripple network - you should bear that in mind. Even if banks were to use the RippleNet at some point, they don't have to use the XRP coin for this (and they won't).

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~ S.@Semos25

3Mes

@stefan_21 Thanks for the feedback. It's very nice of you to explain in detail every time 👍👍👍

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~ S.@Semos25

3Mes

@stefan_21 Slowly approaching the 3$ 🫣

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