09.09.2024
4 important dates for this week (Apple AI) + good opportunities for gold + alarming situation at VW
Further good opportunities for gold
Gold is benefiting twice over from the central banks' current policy. On the one hand, the "interest-free" precious metal is seen as the winner of falling interest rates, and on the other, the central banks are seen as direct buyers. After those in Asia were cited as buyers for a long time, Ulrich Stephan, Chief Investment Strategist at Deutsche Bank, has observed increasing demand from India - also as a result of tax benefits.
Following the announcement of the Volkswagen-Group $VOW3 (+0,29%) to further intensify its austerity measures with job cuts and possible plant closures at the core VW brand, Group CEO Oliver Blume describes the poor economic situation at Volkswagen as alarming. The situation at the VW brand is "so serious that you can't just let everything continue as before", Blume told Bild am Sonntag. "Fewer vehicles are being bought in Europe. At the same time, new competitors from Asia are forcing their way into the market. The pie has become smaller and we have more guests at the table," the CEO continued.
4 dates that will be important this week:
1. high expectations for Apple's AI iPhones
Apple is unveiling new iPhones on Monday - as it does every year in September. But this time it's not just about different colors and better cameras, but above all about the AI capabilities of the new devices. Customers and investors will want to know how the "Apple Intelligence" already presented in June will be integrated into the smartphones, when exactly it will be ready and what else Apple has up its sleeve. Some analysts are going so far as to expect an iPhone "supercycle" triggered by AI, after the past few years have been rather subdued. New AirPods and a new Apple Watch are also expected.
>>> Monday, September 9, 2024; 19:00
2. is the VCI dampening the expectations of the chemical industry?
The VCI Quarterly Report 02/2024 once again shows in detail what the chemical industry association already published in broad outline at the beginning of July. It is therefore more interesting to look ahead: in view of the deteriorating economic outlook - several economic institutes have lowered their growth expectations for Germany in recent days - it is conceivable that the industry association will also cut its annual forecast for Germany's third-largest industrial sector, which currently still envisages a 3.5 percent increase in production. At the end of August, the VCI announced that there was hardly any impetus from abroad. However, this had been the driver of growth in the chemical industry in the first half of the year.
>>> Tuesday, September 10, 2024; 10:00 a.m.
3. US inflationary pressure declines in August
Inflationary pressure in the US is likely to have eased in August. According to the Factset consensus, analysts expect core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) to have risen by 0.2% compared to the previous month and were only 2.6% (July: 2.9%) higher than in the same month last year. Key components of the core consumer price index such as residential rents and used car prices have recently risen more slowly or even declined.
>>> Wednesday, September 11, 2024; 2:30 p.m.
4th ECB cuts deposit rate by 25 basis points - new interest rate corridor
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to decide to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. This is supported by the development of the inflation and growth outlook as well as communication from ECB Governing Council members. At the same time, the ECB will adjust the interest rate corridor so that the main refinancing rate is only 15 (currently: 50) basis points above the deposit rate in future. The marginal lending rate will remain 25 basis points higher than the main refinancing rate (and therefore 40 basis points higher than the deposit rate). In concrete terms, this means that the deposit rate will fall to 3.50 (3.75) percent, the main refinancing rate to 3.65 (4.25) percent and the marginal lending rate to 3.90 (4.50) percent. Analysts unanimously expect that ECB President Christine Lagarde will continue to give no concrete indications on the future interest rate course.
>>> Thursday, September 12, 2024; 14:15 / PK Lagarde 14:45
Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures
ex-dividend of individual stocks
BlackRock USD 5.10
Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
19:00 Apple Presentation of new iPhones and AI functions
22:05 Oracle quarterly figures
Quarterly figures / company dates Europe
08:00 Hannover Re: Press conference on the reinsurance meeting in Monte Carlo
Economic data
- 08:00 DE: Labor Cost Index 2Q
- 10:30 DE: Sentix economic index Germany and euro area
- 16:00 US: Wholesale inventories 7/24 (final)
- 21:00 US: Consumer Credit 7/24
