Numerous companies in my DIBS investment universe have suffered significant losses in recent days. This affects not only individual stocks but also large segments of the AI infrastructure.
Following an exceptionally strong price performance, high valuations are now being scrutinized more critically. The market is taking a much closer look at margins, order intake, and the actual implementation of investment plans. At the same time, additional factors such as increasing competition or short-term disappointments are weighing on individual companies.
This is not an unusual development. Similar phases have also occurred in previous technology cycles. Sharp price increases are often followed by a phase in which the market once again distinguishes more clearly between vision and operational execution.
That is precisely why, in such market phases, I make a conscious effort to take a step back and not overinterpret every price movement.
Thatâs why, in such situations, I make a conscious effort to look not only at stock prices but also at the underlying signals. In doing so, I currently see both reasons for caution and indications that make me optimistic in the long term.
đŽ Selected âweak signalsâ that I view critically:
- Harmonic Drive Systems
$6324 (+0,53Â %) shows that high demand alone isnât enough. The discussion surrounding margins and valuation has made the market significantly more sensitive. - SKF is intensifying competition in the robotics components sector through its acquisition of a Chinese precision robotics company. This could increase pressure on margins in the long term.
- Many companies continue to be valued at high multiples despite the correction. This leaves little room for operational disappointments.
đą Selected âWeak Signalsâ that make me optimistic:
- Micron $MU (+2,78Â %), TSMC
$TSM (+1,44Â %) and ASML
$ASML (+0,05Â %) have recently presented quarterly results and outlooks that continue to point to robust demand for AI infrastructure. - Micron
$MU (+2,78Â %) and Qualcomm
$QCOM (-0,37Â %) have signed a long-term supply agreement (LTA) for automotive AI. Such contracts provide planning certainty and suggest that key customers are planning their infrastructure beyond just the next few quarters. - The hyperscalers continue to invest billions in expanding their data centers. The focus is increasingly shifting from announcements to the actual implementation of these projects.
None of these signals on its own proves a trend reversal. But taken together, they help me continuously reassess my investment theses.
For my DIBS strategy, this does not currently imply an automatic decision to buy or sell. What matters to me is not whether a stock falls 30 or 40 percent in the short term, but whether the underlying bottleneck thesis has changed.
Thatâs why I scrutinize my investment universe particularly closely during such market phases. Not every investment thesis will ultimately pan out. At the same time, however, I currently see no convincing evidence that the fundamental technological bottlenecks in the AI infrastructure sector have already been resolved.
I will therefore continue to closely monitor developments, remaining equally open to both positive and negative signals. For now, I am not making any adjustments to my portfolio.
P.S. The photo of the observer fits the post. I took it years ago in Bonn. The figure can be found tucked away on the banks of the Rhine.
