AI bubble exit strategies

ChrisKay · 2025-10-07T04:35:28.732568Z

A question for the swarm knowledge: What exit strategies do you have? How do you secure your profits through a possible bursting of the AI bubble burst? Maybe it's just me, but somehow I still don't have a real exit strategy to protect my profits in case the AI bubble threatens to burst. My portfolio has been doing quite well recently and with $IREN $CIFR $NVDA $700 $GOOGL $MSFT am quite well in the plus. Thank you for your input!

D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

4Mo

We are currently in an AI bubble ??? 🤔 Well, if you think so......I have a very simple solution to your problem: sell everything and put cash under your pillow or in a savings account at the savings bank. 😂

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ChrisKay@ChrisKay

4Mo

@Propheteus In my opinion, we are slowly moving towards it. We are still some way off, but if you look at the current situation, it is no longer so unrealistic.

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

4Mo

@ChrisKay Well then you have to write it like this...... was afraid we were already in the middle of it. So thank you for your correction........... and please write again when the time comes so that I can hopefully respond. 😉

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Soquim87@Soquim87

4Mo

@Propheteus already a bit arrogant?

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

4Mo

@Soquim87 No, not at all. Just try to see a realistic picture and not get caught up in panic and hysteria.

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Soquim87@Soquim87

4Mo

@Propheteus ok. It sounded like you were trying to take the colleague down a bit! Sorry.

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Jakob C.@Creutzfeldt_Jakob

4Mo

@Propheteus Then show me your picture, please. So far all I've seen from you is arrogant ranting without substance.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

4Mo

@Propheteus So you don't think it's a problem that Oracle spends half of its revenue on CAPEX, now has 100 billion in debt and free cash flows are becoming negative?

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

4Mo

@thewolfofallstreetz I don't care at all, I'm not invested.

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Waxman@Waxman

4Mo

The commentary shows that it is time to take profits

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Tjakos@Agent007

4Mo

@Propheteus Yesterday Jeff Bezos said we're heading for a bubble, but we'd rather believe you!

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Voir toutes les 9 autres réponses

TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

4Mo

It is good to think about an exit strategy in good time! Because the sell-off of the flagpole will come at some point, but quickly. At least that's always been the case in the past. If you are caught unprepared, it is easy to lose a good part of your profit, or FOMO late entrants often end up in the red.
You can "trade" by means of a trading stop loss, or also think about selling in tranches. Just letting it run usually does not end well in such hot momentum phases.

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burnheart@burnheart

4Mo

@TomTurboInvest Stop losses are very difficult, especially with volatile stocks. If it is too high, it is quickly triggered, but if it really is a "crash" and you have set it a little lower, you should not underestimate the slippage. After all, it is only executed at the next available price position, which can lead to a significantly lower price than the stop loss.

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

4Mo

@burnheart High vola doesn't make it any easier, but even then the price often runs in technical bands, you just have to give it more room to breathe. Well, and in the event of a crash within a candle, it can of course go much lower. Everyone has to decide for themselves what they prefer - to hold a position at the low or to sell it on the way to the low.
As a trader, I work a lot with SL, trailing SL and stop limit - depending on the case, I use these variants. Stop limit has the advantage that you limit the downside, with the risk that you don't verkaufst🤷🏽‍♂️ in the event of a major crash.

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Keineui@Keineui

4Mo

I handle it in such a way that I take out the stake after reaching the 100% return. The rest can continue to run with a trailing stop loss. At the same time, I am strengthening my ETFs, $BTC and gold. I haven't taken a crash with me yet, but I hope that will be enough. That way I have the stake out, take profits and the rest, which has not run so hot, can continue to run for >10 years anyway.

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ChrisKay@ChrisKay

4Mo

@Keineui Thank you for the info and for sharing. I also added it to my portfolio yesterday.

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Thomas@Thomas_1963

4Mo

@Keineui That's exactly how I do it.

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Lz@Lz777

4Mo

Profit-taking, reallocation to other sectors.

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Schrauber1113@GordenShanway

4Mo

I cashed out my plus in ASML yesterday.

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Waxman@Waxman

4Mo

@GordenShanway same

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JH90@JH90

4Mo

same

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Schrauber1113@GordenShanway

4Mo

@Waxman our order situation at ASML is also falling drastically for 2026.
almost 30% less so far

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Malte@Malte123

4Mo

If you are unsure, sell 10-20% of your positions at regular intervals.
For example, 10% every 4 months. Then reallocate to what you think is safer/unbubbled.

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StockSniper@StockSniper

4Mo

I have never regretted taking profits. What I have regretted is when a 300% was running sideways for over a year (or down and up again), so it was a 0 number.

Taking profits is NEVER a mistake! Of course in other sectors or areas and not in the savings account

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Mo@BigMo

4Mo

One problem with investing in individual stocks is that you ideally have to manage them individually.
What was the intention behind the purchase?
Long-term investment as long as the company figures are right?
Or are you simply taking the AI momentum with you and are not interested in valuations? In this case, the best way to exit is to follow technical rules such as moving averages.

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ChrisKay@ChrisKay

4Mo

@BigMo With $NVDA, for example, it's more of a medium-term trade that I might even want to hold until I retire. The same applies to $MSFT or $GOOGL. I see them as solid investments. But with stocks like $CIFR $IREN I see a short-term trade to take advantage of the AI momentum.

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Mo@BigMo

4Mo

@ChrisKay I'm with you on Nvidia, Microsoft and Google.
With stocks like $IREN that have made 1000% in 5 months, I can understand that you are getting nervous.
The share price is already parabolic, but it's quite possible that $IREN and co. will double again. 🤷‍♂️

That's what makes it so difficult and there is no perfect solution.
After all, many market participants want to time exactly the top.

So it's best to use a trailing stoploss or fixed stoploss that you adjust manually.
Moving averages also work, but you potentially lose a lot of performance because the price is extremely far away from e.g. 50/200 daily MAs...

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ChrisKay@ChrisKay

4Mo

@BigMo great, thank you. Yesterday I set the corresponding stop prices and always adjust them. Defined tranches are sold

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Pascal W.@pwasbeer

4Mo

Buy gold and bonds

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Money Game@MoneyGame

4Mo

If you think so, you can sell the AI stocks and go into more broadly diversified ETFs for the time being. That way, you'll still make a return if the market continues to run like this for a few more months, but if it crashes you'll make significantly less of a loss than if you had stayed in the AI stocks. I plan to do the same with a few crypto and leveraged products that I have in my portfolio.

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Francisco Rafael@Diavalboy

4Mo

Maybe it would make sense to sell part of your AI/tech positions and look for undervalued sectors that have lost the spotlight since everyone’s obsessed with AI.
Historically, bubbles are often followed by rotations into more traditional/defensive sectors, so adding some defensive stocks could help balance your portfolio.

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Balance seeker@Balance_seeker

4Mo

You're quite right. I lived through the dot-com bubble in 2001, and all the signs are there.
Everyone is rushing into AI (just like they rushed into dot-com back then). It was a disruptive revolution, just as AI is now—but only 1 in 10 of the wannabe big players survived. All the hype is repeating itself, 25 years later.
The real question isn't IF it will burst—it's WHEN. And will our assets take 5 years to recover, just like they did back then? After the dot-com crash, it took the NASDAQ until 2015 to fully recover to its 2000 peak. That's 15 years. Those who bought at the top in 2000 had to wait a decade and a half just to break even.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. The parallels are uncanny: the euphoria, the "this time is different" narrative, the sky-high valuations based on future promises rather than present profits. We've seen this movie before. I guess gold and utilities won't get the big hit , but i would be starting to avoid tech

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PikaPika0105@PikaPika0105

4Mo

I think there will be a moment of honesty. Who is creating real business profits with AI and who has just started some pointless projects with the heading AI. Then there will be sifting out and that will be painful, but here it is important to look at the individual company and not the industry as a whole.

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KingC@RaphGM

4Mo

If you're diversified and invested for the long term, the only exit strategy you need to worry about is retirement 😉

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ChrisKay@ChrisKay

4Mo

@RaphGM Many of my positions are buy & hold with retirement in mind. This is more about my short and medium-term trades.

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KingC@RaphGM

4Mo

@ChrisKay Why do you trade $GOOG, $MSFT or $NVDA?

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ChrisKay@ChrisKay

4Mo

@RaphGM Let's put it this way, I have now set several stop prices for the companies and would sell tranches to take profits. However, I would then keep a basic stake in each of these shares. I see extreme bubble risks with $GOOGL and $MSFT, as they have quite diversified business areas. $NVDA the risk is somewhat greater.

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Global I.@gloinvest

4Mo

Bubble? Wo? Nvidia KGV26. Costco KGV45.

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Jakob C.@Creutzfeldt_Jakob

4Mo

@gloinvest The big players have been pushing the same billions of dollars back and forth for a few weeks now and are rising higher and higher on such news - yes, that points to a bubble. Maybe don't just mention the Nvidia P/E ratio, but also look at other AI players, some of which are unprofitably pushing triple-digit P/E ratios. You don't have to fear the immediate bursting of a bubble, but closing your eyes to the signs is of course also naïve.

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ChrisKay@ChrisKay

4Mo

@investment_guru_2035 My thoughts exactly...

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

4Mo

@investment_guru_2035 As an investment guru, you naturally have a much better view of the AI bubble than us normal investors........

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Jakob C.@Creutzfeldt_Jakob

4Mo

@Propheteus Stick your crude slogans somewhere else if you have nothing to contribute.

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

4Mo

@investment_guru_2035 Please always remain friendly, young Jedi Knight!

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Jakob C.@Creutzfeldt_Jakob

4Mo

@Propheteus Then don't start with the sh***...

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

4Mo

@investment_guru_2035 Always friendly, please!

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Jakob C.@Creutzfeldt_Jakob

4Mo

@Propheteus Do you have anything to contribute in terms of content?

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ChrisKay@ChrisKay

4Mo

@Propheteus @investm_guru_2035 People, please remain friendly and objective. No need to tear each other apart. Posts like this are meant to discuss and transfer knowledge and simply share ideas.

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Chris@Chris98_

4Mo

@investment_guru_2035 https://openai.com/index/openai-nvidia-systems-partnership/

They are not "pushing billions back and forth" behind a multi-year plan. Here, OpenAI is actively buying physical resources from NVIDIA in the form of hardware. OpenAI wants to build these large data centers with the help of NVIDIA.

Always remember that,

It's not ignorance that causes problems. It's what you think you know.

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Voir toutes les 9 autres réponses

TheWorst@TheWorst

4Mo

Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.

- Peter Lynch

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Investor@investingbeginner

4Mo

I don't think we are in an AI bubble, but some stocks are overvalued alot and probably if we crash they won't go to that level again

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NEWT@SteelAnacott

4Mo

For years, I have invested almost exclusively in blue chips in this area, which I plan to hold for decades. As a result, my book profits are correspondingly high. I am currently planning an exit strategy for my retirement at the earliest.

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Wif@salvo89ari

4Mo

AI bubble! Where did you read that please - on TV or in the newspaper? 😂😂😂
The biggest companies in the world use AI every day,
they hardly hire any more staff because AI is taking over their work -
and you're seriously telling me there's an AI bubble? 😂😂😂

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AkeOSelman@AkeOSelman

4Mo

@salvo89ari Yes. There are many objective voices speaking out against overheating. Nobody is panicking here. We just want to discuss things objectively. Thank you.

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Stephan K.@StrahlemannLP

4Mo

That depends on your personal feelings. If you are really worried that there is an AI bubble (this cannot be swept off the table), then you should think about having the titles stopped.

For everyone there is a pain point, when that is reached you want to see money. Agree this with yourself and your conscience and set appropriate stop orders with your provider.

Or, if in doubt, you can laugh about a possible crash and be happy that your favorite stocks are cheaper than they have been for a long time and then add month after month and sit it out.

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Johannes🦅🔥@Johannes001

4Mo

Why so emotional? Going out is secondary! Long term is WIN!

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market_whizkid_2475@market_whizkid_2475

4Mo

We don't know when, nor if, the AI bubble will burst. Trying to time it is pointless.

The only thing yku can do is try and diversify your portfolio with non tech stocks or etfs that are less overweighted on the sector(like ZPRV). Adding some gold and bonds helps too.

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Gennaro@Genna

4Mo

As long as people are so cautious I'm not worried about a bubble. Yes there are overvalued stocks, but only because of the future, there are still enough companies that are cheap, if I think one of my stocks has priced in too much then I just rotate the money into a less priced stock with or without AI. I also try to build up cash when the market rises through dividends and the cash flow from my work and then buy when opportunities arise during setbacks.
The bubble only arises when companies start to miss expectations and the shares rise anyway, if that were the case we should be happy because then we would have time to get out, which would be too nice a scenario for us who deal with the market on a daily basis. It usually happens suddenly and rapidly.

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Imi@Kay88

4Mo

I would say stop prices, if it goes down drastically you would still be somewhat hedged

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KryX_DE@KryX_DE

4Mo

If you think it's a "bubble", I wouldn't invest at all if I were you.

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ChrisKay@ChrisKay

4Mo

@KryX_DE As mentioned in the many comments, there are technical indicators that point to a bubble forming. The trend will continue with or without a bubble, which is why everyone is riding the wave and trying to generate profits.

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Lum0k@Lum0k

4Mo

Set an SL, then you will stay invested if the AI hype continues.

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K@TechNav

4Mo

Trailing stop loss for equities: 20-25% For indices/ETFs: 12-18%

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Matt@MattD

4Mo

OpenAI now has around 700 million weekly users, which corresponds to around ten percent of the world's adult population. In Nov 23 it was 100 million. The billion mark will probably be reached by the end of 2025. There are also a few other use cases for AI. Think a few more data centers will be built 😅

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Matzke@Matzke

4Mo

If I suspect strong declines, I sell the riskiest stocks and start making money with factor shorts on Nasdaq etc.. This happened again yesterday. Yes - I've already burned a lot of money with it, but I've also won a lot!

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Johannes🦅🔥@Johannes001

2Mo

DON'T DO ANYTHING "TIME IN THE MARKET, BEATS TIMING THE MARKET" IF YOU EXPIRE YOU HAVE TO PAY TAX + TAKE FEES WITH YOU ON YOUR NEXT PURCHASE

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AI bubble: exit strategies