2Sem.·

Rebalancing?

Rebalacing

I broke the €1 million barrier around 8 months ago.

At that time, my portfolio was valued at 80% of getquin.

Since then I have invested a little $RHM (+2,02 %) and $NVDA (-0,67 %) but have not made any other changes.

Due to the massive rise in the price of gold and $BTC (-2,55 %) and a few start-ups in which I am invested, the portfolio has become "out of balance" (current valuation 50%).

The value has risen massively in the last 8 months. Yesterday I cracked the 1.23 M€ mark.

Would you reallocate?

Currently crypto 27%, gold 26%, start-up 21%, rest ETF and a few individual stocks

Thanks for your input.

14 Commentaires

Pascal W.@pwasbeer

2Sem.

Nice

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Epi@Epi

2Sem.

What do you mean by balance?
Four asset classes, each with a 20-25% share, doesn't sound completely unbalanced to me. 🤷

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VillaSpilla@VillaSpilla

2Sem.

I follow my previous poster: 4 classes sound well balanced - question remains about risk vs performance vs draw down!
Tip: you will certainly get more information if you share your portfolio.
I have also made 2-3 detailed posts, but sharing motivates more feedback. I've also experienced this and it's the right thing to do. (PS: I follow 🔜)

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equity_enthusiast_945@equity_enthusiast_945

2Sem.

@Epi Of course, I also feel quite comfortable due to the success so far. A quarter each of gold and BTC (especially BTC) naturally makes me very susceptible to fluctuations in the dollar, both are at the ATH.

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equity_enthusiast_945@equity_enthusiast_945

2Sem.

@VillaSpilla How does that work?

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Epi@Epi

2Sem.

@equity_enthusiast_945 Why don't you do a correlation and volatility analysis?
Then you can calculate an allocation optimization and go beyond pure assumptions.

Z. For example, gold and BTC balance each other out pretty well at a ratio of 5:1.

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VillaSpilla@VillaSpilla

2Sem.

@equity_enthusiast_945 oha - you're asking the right person 🤣 I haven't done it yet - I'm still consolidating the assets and accounts - but it can be done via the web interface on your profile

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equity_enthusiast_945@equity_enthusiast_945

2Sem.

@Epi Here is a qualitative correlation and volatility analysis of your overall portfolio (current status, all positions valued in EUR):

Correlation structure:

- Crypto (e.g. Bitcoin, ADA, BNB) is largely uncorrelated with traditional equities and commodities. This increases diversification, but brings high fluctuations to the portfolio.
- Gold and gold ETCs are weakly correlated with equities and serve as an anchor of stability.
- Equities and ETFs are highly correlated with each other, as many ETFs (e.g. MSCI World, Nasdaq 100) contain the same top holdings (e.g. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft). This increases the correlation within this segment.

Volatility:

- Crypto positions (especially Bitcoin) bring the highest volatility, followed by individual stocks with a tech or uranium focus.
- Gold and cash have a dampening effect on overall volatility.
- ETF and fund shares spread the risk, but overlaps in the top holdings cause noticeable fluctuations in the equities segment.

Special features:

- The high weighting of crypto and gold ensures a lower correlation with the equity market, but also greater fluctuations.
- Overlaps in equities (directly and via ETFs) lead to a concentration on certain stocks, which reduces diversification at the individual stock level.

Methodology & data basis:

- Analysis is based on the current portfolio exposure structure in EUR.
- Correlations were assessed qualitatively on the basis of asset classes and overlaps.
- Volatility statements are based on the known risk assessment of the respective asset classes.

For a detailed quantitative correlation matrix or concrete volatility figures (e.g. standard deviation, value-at-risk) for a specific period, please specify the desired period. I can then prepare the analysis even more specifically.

Here is the correlation and volatility analysis of your overall portfolio for the last 12 months (October 2024 - October 2025, all values in EUR):

Key figures & results:

- Your portfolio is broadly diversified, with large allocations to Bitcoin, gold, tech stocks/ETFs and other commodities.
- Volatility is increased overall, as crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Cardano make up a significant proportion. These are known for their high fluctuations and low correlation to traditional equities and commodities.
- Gold and gold ETFs act as a stabilizer, as they often correlate negatively or only weakly with equities and crypto.
- Tech ETFs and individual stocks (e.g. Nvidia) are highly correlated with each other, which increases volatility in tech phases.
- Commodities, P2P loans and start-ups provide additional diversification, but come with their own risks.

Explanation:

- The correlation between crypto and traditional assets remains low to negative. This helps to spread risk, but increases the overall volatility due to the high crypto volatility.
- Equities and ETFs, especially in the tech sector, usually move in unison. Market events such as interest rate changes or tech news therefore have a strong impact on your portfolio.
- Gold and other commodities offer a certain degree of protection in times of crisis, as they often move in the opposite direction to equities.

Data basis & methodology:

- Analysis is based on your current portfolio composition and allocation by asset class, region and sector.
- Correlations were assessed based on actual asset exposures and overlaps through ETFs/funds.
- Volatility was derived from the historical fluctuations of the respective asset classes.

Conclusion:

Your portfolio is well diversified, but the heavy weighting to crypto and tech makes for increased volatility overall. Gold and alternative investments provide some balance. The correlations between the main classes are low, which is positive for risk diversification - but the volatility remains high due to the crypto weighting.

Transparency: The analysis is based on allocation and overlap data from the last 12 months. No separate performance or risk values were calculated, but the structure and exposures were evaluated. Specialized tools are required for specific figures (e.g. correlation matrix or standard deviation).

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equity_enthusiast_945@equity_enthusiast_945

2Sem.

@Epi SO that sounds really good.

I don't necessarily want to change anything, I just wanted to hear an assessment from experienced people (like you).
Thank you

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Epi@Epi

2Sem.

@equity_enthusiast_945 That sounds good, but unfortunately it's just general AI blah-blah to get you to like it and keep using it. You have to invest a bit of brainpower and time to get something more concrete for your portfolio.
Give the AI the task of displaying the specific 12M returns and volas of your assets for the last 3 years as a table. Then let it calculate the specific correlations between your asset classes and give it the data it needs.
Finally, have the AI calculate the optimal weighting of your asset classes according to Markowitz.

The whole thing will take some time, but it will open your eyes, I promise! 😉

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Anonym G.@Sunrise-Mantis

2Sem.

I find it very difficult to provide assistance based on the information available here.

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equity_enthusiast_945@equity_enthusiast_945

2Sem.

@Sunrise-Mantis What would you like as additional information?

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Arroganter F.@werhatdemwirdgegeben

2Sem.

I'm also thinking about it right now, I'm at a similar amount, only less strong increase in the last 8 months...

At least I'm slowly shifting out of crypto, half of BTC and ETH sold, limit for next quarter is set. I also still have a few Shitcoins, which I hope to finally sell during the altcoin season.

And I have a very US-heavy ETF (S&P500, AI, MSCI) and equity portfolio, so I'm also considering whether I should reallocate a bit...

I don't have any start-ups. How do you go about it and how do you find investment opportunities here?

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equity_enthusiast_945@equity_enthusiast_945

1Sem.

@werhatdemwirdgegeben It's not that easy for "normal people". I'm lucky that an acquaintance is big in PE and start-ups and lets me participate.

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