Why is the market not afraid of the Powell speech?
Sure, the inflation data came in pretty much in line with expectations, maybe a tad above. But I see Powell being rhetorically hawkish today. The "red wave" has sparked a lot of euphoria, and Trump may make the Fed more restrictive than under Harris. Asset inflation has been quite high this year, which should now slowly (with a delay of 6-18 months) feed through to core inflation. The betting markets currently see an 82% probability of a rate cut in December - but wouldn't today be an opportunity for Powell to slowly steer the market towards caution?
What's your take on this, is this really relevant at all at the moment or am I completely wrong?
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