Transmedics Grp

$TMDX (+1,52 %) - Slightly increased again 😁

$TMDX (+1,52 %) - Now also there, with a first position ✌️

So guys, I had to try it again this year. The setup was just too tasty. Oversold in the weekly, daily and 4h and at the 200.

Analyst updates, 17.12.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

• - UBS raises the price target for AMAZON from USD 230 to USD 264. Buy. $AMZN (+0,26 %)
• - CITIGROUP raises the target price for ALLIANZ SE from EUR 286 to EUR 314.40. Neutral. $ALV (-0,66 %)
• - BARCLAYS raises the target price for DHL GROUP from EUR 37.50 to EUR 38. Equal-Weight. $DHL (+0,13 %)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH upgrades AIRBUS from Hold to Buy and raises target price from EUR 155 to EUR 185. $AIR (-0,84 %)
• - BERENBERG raises the price target for MUNICH RE from EUR 525 to EUR 552. Hold. $MUV2 (-1,1 %)
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX raises the price target for ADESSO from EUR 80 to EUR 100. Hold. $ADN1 (-0,76 %)
• - WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for FMC from EUR 31 to EUR 36. Sell. $FME (-0,96 %)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for AUTO1 from EUR 12 to EUR 20. Buy. $AG1 (+3,11 %)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for MTU from EUR 329 to EUR 337. Hold. $MTX (-0,47 %)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the price target for HENSOLDT from EUR 37 to EUR 41. Buy. $HAG (-0,41 %)
• - DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for ROLLS-ROYCE from GBP 5.55 to GBP 6.30. Buy. $RR. (-0,37 %)
• - BOFA raises the target price for INFINEON from EUR 36 to EUR 40. Buy. $IFX (-1,35 %)
• - BOFA raises the price target for STMICRO from EUR 29 to EUR 30. Buy. $STMPA (-0,02 %)
• - BOFA raises the target price for NOKIA from EUR 4.07 to EUR 4.58. Neutral. $NOKIA (-0,2 %)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

• - JPMORGAN downgrades TRANSMEDICS from Overweight to Neutral and lowers target price from 116 USD to 75 USD. $TMDX (+1,52 %)
• - BOFA lowers the price target for SILTRONIC from EUR 59 to EUR 46. Underperform. $WAF (-3,21 %)
• - HSBC lowers the price target for CARL ZEISS MEDITEC from EUR 66 to EUR 54. Hold. $AFX (+0,2 %)
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for HEIDELBERGER DRUCK from EUR 1.25 to EUR 1. Hold. $HBGRY
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for EVONIK from EUR 25 to EUR 21. Buy. $EVK (-0,02 %)
• - KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for NORDEX from EUR 17 to EUR 14. Buy. $NDX1 (+0,57 %)

stop loss was executed

I'm out for now - loss compensation and possible reallocation to $AMD (-0,35 %) , $TMDX (+1,52 %) and $JMIA (+2,64 %)

$TMDX (+1,52 %) - Part 3

Summary of the most exciting parts of yesterday's Investor Day:

1. management is very confident that they can do 10,000 transplants. That is the publicly stated goal, but they have sites that could make far more possible.

2. currently we use less than 20% of lungs, less than 30% of hearts and about 60% of livers. This means that the majority of the donor pool is completely unused.

3. there are many $TMDX (+1,52 %) competitors that do not solve the ischemia problem. Ischemic damage occurs when an organ is not supplied with blood. The longer this lasts, the greater the risk of morbidity. There is no competitor that has a product that can eliminate ischemic damage and get the organ to the patient. $TMDX (+1,52 %) has the only portable multi-organ perfusion technology in the world.

4 $TMDX (+1,52 %) Data shows that it has reduced primary graft dysfunction in lung transplants by 50%, heart and liver by 65% and ischemic biliary complications in liver transplants by 84%.

5. $TMDX (+1,52 %) presented its command center, the heart of the logistics business. This is the place where $TMDX (+1,52 %) coordinates its missions (air and ground) to ensure that organs reach their destination as quickly as possible. It shows how$TMDX (+1,52 %) X has full control over its entire business operations. It is one of the biggest moats for a small-cap company in the entire market.

6. data has shown that ischemic biliary complications in 4,300 liver transplants using $TMDX (+1,52 %) transported organs are only 1.7%.

7. morning transplants are a key factor in the success of organ transplants and finances. Morning transplants have not been possible in the past, but with $TMDX (+1,52 %) logistical possibilities they are now.

8 There are three next-gen programs that will lead to tremendous growth in 2025, all leveraging the large investments in the logistics network in 2024. These are the Next Gen Lung Program, the Next Gen Heart Clinic Program and the NOP Network, which will be a digital ecosystem with full transparency for all stakeholders involved.

9. $TMDX (+1,52 %) have eliminated all edema in lung transplants within 24 hours. This is something they have not yet achieved in 2024. This was communicated to 175 lung transplant surgeons in Boston 2 weeks ago, so it's all very new and an exciting development for 2025.

9 Management also introduced Envision, an ecosystem that manages all aspects from organ procurement to transplantation. It also includes all financial management tasks such as case counts for OCS, OCS costs and automated billing. More rationalization. More efficiency.

10. the management has repeatedly emphasized that $TMDX (+1,52 %) will be an international company. The TAM is huge.

11. the focus of development in 2025 will be on kidneys, with launch in 2029 after FDA clinical trials in 2027. this will add approximately 50,000 transplants to the TAM annually.

12. management discussed its vision for the next generation of OCS, which completely redefines how OCS works in order to $TMDX (+1,52 %) enable the performance of over 30,000 transplants per year. Everything will be highly automated and closely connected to the cloud, resulting in tremendous financial efficiencies.

Conclusion: It all sounds very exciting, the company certainly has potential and enormous growth opportunities, but it will take time and you have to be patient.

i have so much on my mind

I mistyped

of course I wanted to buy 10

$TMDX (+1,52 %) - Company presentation part 2

Why $TMDX (+1,52 %) could be an opportunity - reasons and concerns

Positive:

• $TMDX (+1,52 %) Is a demand-driven business. Selling products that people need usually means that the products sell themselves. In any economic climate, there are people waiting for organs.

• The business model of $TMDX (+1,52 %) is very robust. When an organization buys an organ, it keeps the console. When it uses the organ, it immediately buys a new organ to replenish the console. If an organization wants to use the NOP service for transport only, the contracts usually provide for OCS to be used in some way, whether to house/monitor the organ during transport or to purchase OCS outright to house the organ once the organization receives it.

• The entire transplant industry is massively underutilized

• Why $TMDX (+1,52 %) wins in transplants:

$TMDX (+1,52 %) Could easily become a monopoly (especially NOP) or expand their lead. You start in a niche, dominate it and keep expanding.

• $TMDX (+1,52 %) the NOP logistics command center:

• Unique competitive advantage:

Concerns:

• $TMDX Has only recently become profitable and is inconsistent. You only reached profitability a year ago.

Net income:

Q4 2023: 4 million $

Q1 2024: 12.2 million $

Q2 2024: 12.2 million dollars

Q3 2024: 4.2 million USD

• In the last four quarters, costs have risen faster than revenue. This is something you don't want to see in a company that has recently become profitable.

• $TMDX (+1,52 %) Has about $330m in cash, but still has about $178m in net debt

• $TMDX (+1,52 %) would be a candidate for loss absorption. The share price has fallen sharply for half a year. For people who are still holding the share with a book loss, a sale now would be a good opportunity to offset this with profits from this year.

• The sentiment at $TMDX is at a multi-year low. Having just posted their first QoQ decline (although still up 64% y/y), the aesthetics of their rising sales, which has led to a 900% return on share price in 4.5 years, is ruined. If $TMDX (+1,52 %) delivers another disappointing quarter, it could leave a nasty taste in Wall Street's mouth in the long run, regardless of how well the business might be doing - much like $PYPL (-0,38 %) and $SOFI (+1,24 %)

• $TMDX has a very asset-heavy business model. They own a fleet of aircraft, they own hubs that store OCS consoles and maintain aircraft, they own vehicles for ground transportation. All these assets are not cheap to maintain. This is a very complex logistics network that needs to be utilized/utilized, as opposed to e.g. $SHOP (+0,9 %) , $PLTR (+6,35 %) and Co, whose entire business is based on software.

• The whole business depends on the generosity of others. Without donors, there is no business. It is not the case that $TMDX (+1,52 %) can ramp up/scale organ production to higher numbers. I could see NOP and renting out this fleet in the future, for medical purposes only, could be a great way to expand the monopoly on transplants.

• has a very niche business. There are only a limited number of people looking for a new organ. This will lead to some restrictions on business growth unless they expand at some point.

Bottom line:

I think $TMDX (+1,52 %) could be a good buy now. The current weakness in the numbers is fundamentally not due to weakness in the business, but it is being sold off heavily as if it is. Down 50% because the transplant industry as a whole is down ? Because more was spent this quarter on expanding the business for 2025 ? Because the QoQ increase could not be sustained due to aircraft maintenance ?

I will consider getting in, what stops me at the moment is that you can't control the supply, but if you continue to develop the technology and others also use your services, the growth should be able to be sustained.

I am optimistic about the future!