Dear friends of Getquin,

I'm usually a silent reader, but if everyone just reads, eventually there's no more reading material, is there? So today I want to share my story with you.

The beginnings:

It's hard for me to say exactly when my journey began, but I do know that I developed a fascination with money as a child. My first "investment" was when I was about 7 or 8 years old, when I bought an ounce of gold with my own pocket money. At that time, no one in my family had anything to do with investments, but I had seen it in my mother's bank when I often accompanied her there. I was fascinated by the shiny coins and wanted to know how I could have a piece myself.

Then, around the turn of the millennium, I saw my father, together with a "great" bank advisor, invest the entire family savings in the middle of the dotcom bubble. The result: a massive loss within a few months. But my mother, who was at home at the time, fought hard and was miraculously able to recoup the losses. I was about 9 or 10 years old at the time and watched her sit in front of the PC every day and look at the figures. From that moment on, I was hooked! I started using an Excel spreadsheet to track which shares I would have bought at what price and watched the performance of my fictitious investments with great interest every day after school.

The first few years:

My mother stopped day trading after about a year and went back to work. However, shares were no longer an issue for me until I was 26.

Getting into real shares:

In 2018, in the summer, as a die-hard Juventus fan, I read about an article on the transfer of CR7 and how Juventus shares went through the roof. I was there again! At that time, however, I only had a small income as a working student. My father, who had failed with his investments in the past, gave me €2,000 - and I bought Juventus shares. However, he made me promise him that I would never invest in shares again. How did the story end? The "trade" with Juventus was a success, but I had to pay taxes for the first time - and I still hate that to this day.

The first losses:

After my Juventus adventure, I began to delve deeper into the matter. I tried out recommendations from "Aktionär" and repeatedly bet on individual shares for smaller trades. It was more of a game, but I generally remained profitable - sometimes a few percent profit, sometimes a few percent loss. Thanks to the profits and additional deposits, I built up my portfolio to €18,000 until I was hit by Wirecard. In the end, I had to accept a loss of around €6,000. It was painful, but not life-threatening - and I learned a lot from this mistake. In particular, I made the mistake of constantly buying more. If I had left it at the original position of € 1,500, the loss would probably not have been so dramatic.

Don't give up:

After the Wirecard debacle, I radically rethought my strategy. I increasingly focused on conservative companies, regular dividend payers and low growth. But here, too, I realized that I was underperforming the market. So I adapted my strategy further and took a long-term approach. I have since been able to slowly recoup my losses.

The clean cut - a new start:

In the summer of 2023, I needed all my assets for a private housing project and decided to make a real "fresh start". I sold all the positions in my portfolio and only kept my ETF savings plans with TradeRepublic.

The new era:

When the housing project was completed, I wanted to build up a new portfolio with the money I had left over - and here you can see the result. My aim is to find companies that are growing strongly and have a solid moat. Dividends are nice, but not a must. My portfolio also contains defensive, boring stocks as a healthy addition. At the same time, I try to further expand my ETF positions through one-off purchases - I stopped my regular ETF savings plans at the end of January 2025. I have also invested a little in crypto and gold on the side. I have made further investments in Lego (€500), Pokémon (€1,000) and Counterstrike cases (€3,000), but these are not part of the public list - that would be too costly for me.

Fun fact:

My cash ratio has never been higher than €3,000 since I first entered the stock market (2018). This is currently an exception because I want to build up a cash reserve for the next generation.

Goal:

I don't have a specific, set goal when it comes to my investments. It's more of a hobby for me. I just enjoy seeing how my portfolio grows and how I can accompany exciting companies and be a small part of them as they develop. For me, it feels a bit like collecting: I enjoy discovering interesting companies, investing in them and watching them develop over the long term.

Thank you:

A big thank you goes to Goldesel Investing and Markus Koch, who have been with me since my first stock market steps. Without you, the share culture in German-speaking countries would certainly not be as strong! And of course a big thank you to Getquin - I've always dreamed of a platform like this! 0% bullshit, 100% investments.

I hope you like the revised version! The text is now more clearly structured, reads more smoothly and still retains your personal style.

Please let me know if you liked my story!

A little tip: My Bitpanda portfolio has a longer history, but I was too lazy to enter everything manually. I also didn't want to take over the history because, as I said, I wanted to start a new chapter in my investment history in November 2023. Overall, however, my crypto track is up €3000-4000.

$CSPX (-1,14 %)
$ETH (+1,85 %)
$BLK (-1,16 %)
$GS (-2,21 %)
$XDWD (-0,98 %)
$V (-0,16 %)
$MC (+0,4 %)
$MS (-1,6 %)
$QCOM (-4,11 %)
$JNJ (+2,12 %)
$ASML (-0,72 %)
$RBOT (-2,12 %)
$LOCK (-1,22 %)
$MRK (+2,28 %)
$UNP (-0,01 %)
$NKE (-0,48 %)
$QDV5 (-0,66 %)
$MA (-0,3 %)
$TGT (-2,56 %)
$PEP (+3,26 %)
$NU (-11,11 %)
$AAPL (+0,26 %)
$TSLA (-4,32 %)
$DOGE (+2 %)
$BTC (+0,74 %)
$BRK.B (-0,13 %)
$PEPE (+1,19 %)

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

__________

In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (+0,26 %) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (-0,12 %) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-2,18 %) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA (-3,09 %) are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (-1,45 %) D.R. Horton $DHI (-1,49 %) and Caterpillar $CAT (-2,26 %) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (+4,11 %) Boeing $BA (-1,57 %) and Qualcomm $QCOM (-4,11 %) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (-4,32 %) , Ford $F (-0,67 %) and General Motors $GM (-2,75 %) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (-2,98 %) , U.S. Steel $X (-2,22 %) and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (-4,12 %) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (+1,91 %) Moderna $MRNA (+6,04 %) and Eli Lilly $LLY (+0,32 %) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (-0,73 %) , Chevron$CVX (-0,58 %) and Expand Energy $CHK (-1,7 %) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (-4,07 %) and Texas Instruments$TXN (-0,26 %) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (+0,26 %) NVIDIA $NVDA (-3,63 %) , AMD $AMD (-2,29 %) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (-4,32 %) , Ford $F (-0,67 %) , General Motors $GM (-2,75 %) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (-1,57 %) and Caterpillar $CAT (-2,26 %) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-2,31 %) , Target $TGT (-2,56 %) and Nike $NKE (-0,48 %) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (+2,37 %) Duke Energy $DUK (+2,62 %) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (-6,94 %) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+2,12 %) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (-4,07 %) , Eli Lilly $LLY (+0,32 %) , Nucor $NUE (-2,98 %) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

__________

Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html

The target trade has been cashed out. The recovery to the dip at €145 is taking too long for me. Just under 18% in no idea how many weeks or possibly even 2 months.

$ELF (+5,42 %) - Because it also reflects my opinion ✌️

Goldman Sachs with buy recommendation for $ELF (+5,42 %) Target price USD 165; "One of the fastest growing and most disruptive players in the beauty space"

"We view ELF as one of the fastest growing and most disruptive players in the beauty space. The company's continued market share gains and growth momentum stand in sharp contrast to the slowing trends in the beauty category, particularly among mass retailers such as $TGT (-2,56 %) , $WMT (-2,31 %) and $ULTA (-1,47 %)

As such, we expect the company to continue to deliver healthy sales growth driven by a disciplined, disruptive innovation strategy and breakthrough marketing techniques that resonate well with core Generation Z consumers. We see further upside internationally and believe the importance of this opportunity is underestimated. Our analysis suggests that one point of market share gain in the seven focus markets of $ELF (+5,42 %) could increase ELF's sales growth by 4 percentage points.

In addition, we expect ELF's steady increase in EBITDA margin to translate into an EBITDA CAGR of over 20% (FY24-28), which should comfortably support EPS growth in the low to mid-20s. Finally, we believe that the current valuation of $ELF (+5,42 %) is attractive given its strong fundamentals, which should lead to a further re-rating from current levels."

✌️🚀

The gray November showed what it can do. Rain, clouds, cold and wet. It was just the perfect weather for me to go hiking and ice bathing. Especially in the second half of the month, the temperatures headed towards freezing point. I was finally able to hike and ice bathe in temperatures that were perfect for toughening up. So while I was trudging through Saxon Switzerland in the first decent snow from sunrise to sunset and bathing in ice water at 1°C for two proud minutes, on the other side of the pond the newly elected president unleashed the "Trump wave", which lifted all our deposits and wallets. Time for a look back.

I present the following points for the past month of November 2024:

➡️ SHARES

➡️ ETFS

➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS

➡️ CASHBACK

➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES

➡️ P2P CREDITS

➡️ CRYPTO

➡️ WHAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT

➡️ OUTLOOK

➡️ Shares

$AVGO (-3,16 %) , cooled off in terms of performance in the past month. Of course, its +169% is impressive, but the positions behind it are not sleeping. $NFLX (-1,73 %) is close behind with +151%. This also applies to the volume invested. It's hard to believe that the streaming giant is doing so well. I didn't think the company would see such rosy times again. All due respect! Together with Netflix, it is also $WMT (-2,31 %) in terms of volume and is already at +89% in terms of performance. I would hardly have expected such a boring business model to deliver such a stable performance. At the lower end $DHR (+1,24 %) Dick is still in the red. For me, this is still the result of the unbundling. $NKE (-0,48 %) and $TGT (-2,56 %) have problems with their business figures and $OR (+1,22 %) certainly also. I would be happy to add to this, if only I had significantly large sums to spare.

➡️ ETFs

I'll spare myself the typical "everyone has to have this" blah-blah-blah this time and my $VWRL (-0,91 %) is the heavyweight of my entire securities portfolio at 13.41%. You know what I mean. The only thing I have to say is that financial education in Germany is still inadequate and something needs to be done about it. Now one party is stating in its platform that capital gains should be taxed as a secondary type of income like a main type of income. Such a demand is simply the result of a lack of financial education and - excuse my language - stupidity. For me, this party is absolutely unelectable. But that goes beyond the scope. Politics does not belong in my program, but perhaps there will be a separate post here about why I am ultimately an absolute fan of the capital gains tax - simple flat tax. Hopefully, more and more young people will join the capital markets and use their votes to ensure that left-wing non-performance-related blah-blah-blah will soon be a thing of the past. Because we must not leave Germany behind.

➡️ Dividends

I received 19 distributions on 8 payout days in November. I am grateful for this additional income stream. My minimum target has been met again. Even in this low-distribution month. I can therefore now safely increase the size of the reinvestment of the distributions. From next month, €105 will be reinvested instead of the planned €80. I have already explained how my reinvestment strategy works in a separate article. The snowball rolling down the slope is getting bigger and bigger.

➡️ Cashback

In November there was a small payout from the health insurance bonus program. Otherwise the month was poor in terms of cashback. But that will come again in December.

➡️ Subsequent purchases

Two small additional purchases were made to boost the cash flow in my old portfolios On November 7 and 8, small sums went into the $GGRP (-0,99 %) and $SPYD (+0,62 %) .

➡️ P2P loans

I want to continue to cut back and get rid of the two remaining platforms. Only Mintos and Peerberry are left. There has been no interest for a long time.

This asset class will soon be history for me

➡️ Crypto

Wow! What a month. The red Trump wave has really boosted my crypto portfolio. Can you still remember the days when $BTC (+0,74 %) were bobbing around at under 70K? The price level was totally unusual. I'm wide awake now and haven't just been on the sidelines for a long time. I regularly check the prices and a few indicators. The first limit orders were already triggered at $xrp in November. At USD 1.10, this token was kicked out of my portfolio. Of course I could have done more, but I went home with a good profit. As I write now, the next limit orders will be triggered soon. I described how my strategy works, what assumptions I make and where I see the exits in great detail in two posts earlier this month. As of now, no subsequent dividend stock or dividend ETF has been bought from the proceeds, from whose dividends the additional purchases will be made in the new bear market. But I am sure that this will happen this year.

➡️ What is really important

Thanks to the automation of long-term wealth accumulation, there is enough time to focus on the important things in life. Because the end of it is sure to come.

With a healthy lifestyle, I want to delay the end as much as possible. And yet I'm currently thinking about who I want to leave my estate to at some point. It certainly won't be the state, it's already cashing in well on taxes. Regular readers can now imagine who might be in my favor. I'll have to deal with the subject of wills at some point. In any case, I want to sort it out somehow when I'm young, even if it's subject to change.

At the end of the month, I spent time with the kids again, whose father I would have liked to have been myself. The older one has now reached an age where she's slowly beginning to realize that she's not growing up in such good financial circumstances. After I made a firm commitment to her during our trip to Berlin to support her with her dreams and her future, I also took action. It is important to me to introduce the child to financial education step by step. My principle is not to encourage and challenge at the same time. Let's see how well I succeed, I'm certainly very optimistic.

➡️ Outlook

Why I have dollar signs in my eyes when I see my utility bill and where I'm donating some of my earnings in December, as well as the further course of my implemented crypto strategy, will be revealed in December. In any case, the month is full of excitement, as 2 more cryptocurrencies will soon be released from my wallet.

Links:

Social media links can be found in my profile, also feel free to check out the Instagram version of my review.

Portfolio feedback requested

I (early 50s, so still a good 15 years to work on the portfolio) would like to hear your opinion. I've been with Trade Republic since January, mainly because of the 4%. But then I started saving a few ETFs, then buying and selling a few shares. So I played around. At the moment my portfolio has three or rather four different parts. Let's put it this way, the family treasury has given me around €10k to play with. The rest remains in call money.

Of this 10K I would like to have a part to play, individual stocks, §IWDA, other ETFs that are close to me because of my work, XRP.

But that's not my topic here.

I want to build a dividend portfolio. Reduce working hours or improve pension, we'll see where the journey takes me. For now, I would reinvest all payouts.

The composition from December would look like this:

$MCD (+0,5 %) 15%

$EXSH (+0,33 %) 9%

$MAIN (-0,54 %) 9%

$ARCC (+0,18 %) 9%

$HTGC (-0,77 %) 9%

$O (+1,37 %) 9%

$CSWC (-0,93 %) 5%

$PFE (+1,91 %) 5%

$KAP (-0,56 %) 5%

$JEGP (+0,05 %) 5%

$TGT (-2,56 %) 3,5%

$GAIN (-0,91 %) 5%

$QYLE (-1,07 %) 5%

$VHYL (-0,58 %) 1%

What do you think about the composition? Should something go in/out?

My aim would be to distribute the monthly distributions evenly. I'll have to play around with the ratios a bit.

My problem is that the months of January, February, April and May look too poor. What would you suggest that pays out in these months?

Roast me!