After the latest news, should you consider investing in $ORCL (+5,84 %) or $9984 (+11,32 %) to invest?
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6522.01.2025
Netflix with record increase of almost 19 million users + Evotec receives funding from the Korean government + Trump announces AI infrastructure investments + Trump open to Musk's purchase of Tiktok
Netflix $NFLX (-1,9 %)delivers after-hours figures
- Netflix has broken the 300 million user mark after record growth in the past quarter.
- In the quarter with the second season of the South Korean hit series "Squid Game", the company added almost 19 million users, as announced by the company on Tuesday after the US stock exchange closed.
- This was around twice as many as analysts had expected - the video streaming market leader also exceeded Wall Street forecasts for revenue and profit.
- Netflix now has 301.6 million customer households.
- The largest quarterly increase to date was around 15 million at the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
- However, with the record, Netflix will now stop providing information on the number of users.
- Netflix's revenue rose by 16% year-on-year to 10.2 billion dollars in the past quarter.
- At the bottom line, profit jumped from 938 million dollars a year earlier to 1.87 billion dollars.
- The results were well received by investors: The share price rose by eight percent at times in after-hours trading.
Evotec $EVT (+0,54 %)receives funding from the Korean government to develop novel antibody-based treatments for lung diseases
- Yonsei University, Zymedi and Evotec receive USD 4.5 m from the Korea Institute of Advanced Technology under the Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.
- The funding will support a novel collaboration to develop first-in-class therapeutics for the treatment of asthma and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis
Trump announces AI infrastructure investments led by Oracle $ORCL (+5,84 %), OpenAI and Softbank $9984 (+11,32 %)supported by
- Executives pledged to invest an initial $100 billion and up to $500 billion over the next four years in the project, which will be set up as an independent company
- https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/21/trump-ai-openai-oracle-softbank.html?irclickid=x7cRozR4exyKT%3ARS-WUlu0FFUksxGHydHx9a1w0&irgwc=1
Trump open to Musk's purchase of Tiktok
- US President Donald Trump has no objections to tech billionaire Elon Musk taking over Tiktok.
- He is open to it if Musk wants to buy the video app, Trump said in the White House in response to a question from journalists.
- He also reiterated that he believes Tiktok should be half-owned by the USA.
- Musk's name had recently been mentioned in media reports.
- The Wall Street Journal and the financial service Bloomberg wrote that the Chinese government was considering the option of selling Tiktok to Musk.
- The tech billionaire and current Trump confidant has considerable business interests in China: the electric car manufacturer Tesla, which he manages, has a large plant in Shanghai.
- Musk could link Tiktok with X Musk already owns the online platform X, which is based on the short messaging service he bought, Twitter.
- He supported Trump's election campaign with more than 200 million dollars and made X an even more important platform for the president and his supporters.
- The clock is ticking for Tiktok in the USA. A US law stipulated that the China-based Tiktok owner Bytedance had to divest itself of Tiktok by last Sunday in order for the app to remain available in the US.
- However, this did not happen and the app was temporarily taken offline at the weekend.
- Trump gives Tiktok more time On Monday, however, Trump issued an executive order that the Department of Justice should not enforce the provisions of the law for 75 days.
- It remains to be seen whether he can do this legally.
- Trump is convinced that he can strike a deal for Tiktok. He argues that Tiktok is worth nothing without the US market and that he is therefore in a strong negotiating position.
- Officially, Tiktok has always rejected a change of ownership.
- Concerns in the US The law - which Trump must also abide by - was triggered by worries that the Chinese government could use Tiktok to gain access to US users' data and manipulate public opinion in the US.
- Tiktok rejects this.
- At the same time, Trump played down the data protection concerns.
- There are bigger problems than information about young Tiktok users falling into Chinese hands, he said on Monday.
Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures
- ex-dividend of individual stocks
- Acerinox EUR 0.31
- Dell Technologies Registered USD 0.45
- Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
- 12:25 Johnson & Johnson quarterly figures
- 12:30 GE Vernova quarterly figures
- 12:45 Halliburton | Johnson & Johnson quarterly figures
- 12:55 Procter & Gamble quarterly figures
- 13:00 Travelers Cos quarterly figures
- 13:30 Abbott Laboratories quarterly figures
- 16:00 United Airlines quarterly figures
- 22:10 Alcoa annual results
- Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
- 08:00 Easyjet quarterly figures
- 17:45 VW Pre Close Call
Economic data
11:00 EU: Government Debt 3Q | Government Deficit 3Q
12:00 DE: Bundesbank, monthly report January
16:00 US: Leading Indicators Index December FORECAST: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy
16:15 CH: ECB President Lagarde, participation in dialog on "Beyond Crisis: Unlocking Europe's Potential" at World Economic Forum Davos
19:30 CH: ECB Governing Council member Nagel, participation in panel at World Economic Forum Davos
19:30 DE: President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, participates in a panel discussion at the event "Evening Reception, Frankfurt RheinMain International Marketing of the Region"
Stargate
SoftBank, Oracle and OpenAI are setting up a joint venture called Stargate and investing $500 billion in AI infrastructure projects in the US over the next four years. I have been very positive about the developments around the SoftBank Group for some time now, as you can see from previous posts. Microsoft, NVIDIA and ARM will also be technology partners in the project.
Oracle introduces AI agents for sales professionals
US-based Oracle is one of a number of major technology companies focusing on the development of virtual assistants that can perform repetitive or difficult tasks with greater autonomy.
Microsoft and Alphabet's Google have also placed agents at the center of their AI strategies.
Unlike the general virtual assistants used by consumers, Oracle's agents are designed to complete specific tasks. Every time a sales representative meets with a customer, they need to update the company's data on the progress of a deal, and the agents can take over this task.
However, some tasks are more complex.
A customer intelligence agent can pull records from all categories of Oracle's enterprise software and create a report for sales teams preparing for business meetings, even if those records are in different languages.
For example, the system can show a US-based sales team that a regular customer in another country has not received its deliveries on time - information that could be helpful in offering concessions to extend a contract.
"Our customers are often brands that you may never have heard of, but are active in the industry. They transport rock and manufacture machinery. They tend to be global," Rob Pinkerton, a senior vice president at Oracle, said in an interview.
"The ability to bring together the data from all the languages that are important to a vendor is very useful." According to Oracle, the features will be available from Tuesday. The company is not charging any additional fees for the new agents.
Liquidation of the portfolio
Due to my own inattention or incompetence, I will liquidate the positions except for gold and BTC.
Why? I only realized today that this taxation of unrealized gains on ETFs is actually coming into force.
In order to replicate the performance of Info Tech and Defense as closely as possible (I still want to exclude Mag 7 and the savings plan options also limit me slightly), I am betting on these stocks (all are equally weighted):
My ETF portfolio
Only completed this month, so the gains and losses are perhaps a little strange.
The Information Tech ETF serves to invest as focused as possible in all the compounders, I would generally prefer the equal weight variant, but unfortunately it is not yet available in Europe as far as I know. The VanEck ETF is intended to protect the portfolio somewhat from geopolitical risks, and the companies are also quite interesting and all have the state as a major customer, either directly or indirectly, which I think is a very good addition. Weighting is around 55% at the beginning and will be rebalanced as soon as the equities exceed the 80-85% threshold. In this way, I hope to take as much upside as possible and leave the equity area largely unhindered.
The 22% weighting is based on the post from dear @Epi regarding gold.
Like gold, the combination of bonds is intended to take out some volatility and provide an alternative cash position. However, I am considering possibly exchanging the 1-3 year bonds for BTC.
11.12.2024
Teamviewer continues to grow + Oracle's quarterly figures received negatively + IPO of Delivery Hero subsidiary Talabat flops
Teamviewer $TMV (+0,23 %)went shopping again, share plummets.
- The shares slumped by 12.2 percent after an acquisition.
- The software company acquired the London-based company 1E, a specialist for digital workplaces, for 720 million dollars.
Oracle $ORCL (+5,84 %)with quarterly figures from the previous evening, left its biggest competitor SAP $SAP (+1,56 %)cold.
- The SAP competitor's figures were slightly below expectations on both the revenue and earnings side.
- It was mainly analysts' comments that moved share prices.
- Analysts from Jefferies and JPMorgan emphasize that Oracle needs stronger growth in the cloud segment for further share price gains.
- Oracle recorded an increase in sales of just under 9 percent in the second quarter, but missed analysts' expectations in terms of profit and growth.
- The stock recorded a 9% increase in sales to 14.06 billion dollars in the second quarter, missing market expectations of 14.11 billion dollars, according to LSEG.
- Despite robust growth in the cloud segment, Morgan Stanley analysts say the company is under scrutiny for how it can translate strong demand into accelerated revenue and sustained double-digit EPS growth.
IPO of Delivery Hero subsidiary $DHER (-3,63 %)Talabat $TALABATflops
- The IPO of Delivery Hero subsidiary Talabat turned out to be a disappointment on the first day of trading.
- Talabat shares were last listed on the Dubai Stock Exchange with a discount of almost seven percent at 1.49 dirhams (0.38 euros). At the start, it had still looked like a successful debut.
- The Talabat share had initially risen by 7.5 percent.
- The parent company has now also lost ground.
- Shares in Delivery Hero lost 9.6 percent to 32.17 euros around midday.
- The Delivery Hero Group had raised the equivalent of almost two billion euros with the offered 20 percent stake in Talabat.
- Originally, the Berlin-based food delivery service wanted to offer 15 percent of its Middle East subsidiary on the market.
- According to Bloomberg data, the IPO was the largest in the region in 2024. Talabat is active in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Egypt, among other countries, and delivers food and everyday items.
- In 2023, the business recorded a gross merchandise value (GMV) of more than five billion euros.
- In the first half of 2024, this figure increased by more than a fifth.
- Of the gross merchandise value, more than six percent remained as operating profit adjusted for special effects (EBITDA margin).
Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures
- Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
13:00 Exxon Mobil strategy update
13:00 Exxon Mobil analyst and press conference
22:05 Adobe detailed annual results
- Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
07:00 Tui | Carl Zeiss Meditec detailed annual results
07:30 Inditex 9-month results | Talanx Capital Markets Day press conference
08:00 British American Tobacco Pre-Close Trading Update Annual Results
09:15 Tui PK
10:00 Metro Annual Press Conference & Capital Markets Update
- Economic data
08:00 DE: Domestic Tourism October
11:00 DE: Federal Government, Cabinet Meeting, Berlin
13:00 US: MBA Mortgage Applications
14:30 US: Consumer Prices November PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+2.7% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+2.6% yoy Core Consumer Prices PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+3.3% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/+3.3% yoy
14:30 US: Real income November
15:45 CA: Bank of Canada (BoC), outcome of the Monetary Policy Council meeting Overnight Rate PROGNOSE: n.a. previously: 3.75%
16:30 US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
HERE'S WHAT WALL ST. IS SAYING ABOUT $ORCL (+5,84 %) FOLLOWING EARNINGS:
1. Piper Sandler (Overweight, PT: $210):
"A fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating cRPO growth to 20% y/y (vs. 18% last quarter) reinforces our confidence in a multi-quarter growth reacceleration, underpinned by cloud and AI tailwinds. Meta joining companies like xAI, NVIDIA, and Cohere as customers leveraging Oracle’s AI infrastructure highlights strong momentum. Consistent expense discipline and improving margins across cloud applications and infrastructure are equally encouraging. We raise our PT to $210 based on continued cloud momentum and roll forward to CY29E."
2. Bernstein (Outperform, PT: $213):
"While the stock reaction was not pretty (down ~8%) after mixed results, the key story drivers remain strong. OCI YoY growth accelerated, Strategic Back Office grew 18%, and Database Cloud grew 28%, hitting a $2.2B run rate with >$100M from partnerships with Azure, GCP, and AWS. Weakness creates a buying opportunity for long-term investors, as we see significant upside. We raise our PT to $213, driven by rolling forward estimates and increasing the P/FE multiple to 27x."
3. KeyBanc (Overweight, PT: $200):
"A stumble, but bookings momentum remains on track, and OCI/SaaS businesses are expected to accelerate through 2H. Operating margins continue to trend positively. OCI revenue accelerated to 55% growth, with consumption revenue rising to 58%. While RPO grew y/y, sequential declines raised investor concerns. Management expects RPO to rebound in Q3. We still like Oracle heading into 2025."
4. Evercore ISI (Outperform, PT: $200):
"Oracle delivered solid F2Q results. The pullback seems more tied to profit-taking after a big YTD run than any fundamental change. Incremental FX headwinds explain adjustments to estimates. OCI growth remains robust (+50% expected going forward), and confidence in capacity expansion for CY25 is high. Highlights include RPO hitting $97B (expected to rebound in 2H) and 58% OCI consumption growth. At 24x CY26 EPS, risk/reward remains attractive."
5. BMO Capital (Market Perform, PT: $205):
"We consider 50% y/y CC RPO growth and 21% y/y CC CRPO growth to be solid results. Cloud services revenue growth was in line with our estimates (~24% y/y CC), though slightly disappointing given the conversion from RPO. Expense management was impressive, with operating margins increasing by 60bps y/y. As a result of another solid RPO quarter, we are raising our target price to $205, based on 28x FY26 P/E. We would consider getting more constructive at a more attractive entry point."
6. RBC Capital (Sector Perform, PT: $165):
"Oracle reported a mixed quarter, and against elevated expectations, shares fell 8% after-hours. Q3 revenue and EPS were solid on a constant currency basis, but FY25 revenue guidance was reiterated, and EPS slightly missed due to below-the-line dynamics. OCI growth accelerated slightly on AI workloads, but investors are struggling to underwrite management's aggressive 2H cloud growth targets. Shares trade at 27x CY25E P/E; our $165 PT applies a 25x multiple."
7. Mizuho (Outperform, PT: $210):
"Mizuho raised the price target on Oracle to $210 from $185 while maintaining an Outperform rating, reflecting confidence in Oracle's cloud growth and momentum."
8. DA Davidson (Neutral, PT: $150):
"We maintain our Neutral rating and raise our PT to $150 following a mixed quarter. Revenue and EPS missed consensus, though OCI revenue remains elevated on strong AI compute demand. Oracle expects capital expenditures to double but remains cautious about pacing investments with demand signals."
$ORCL (+5,84 %) Oracle Corporation reported earnings
Q2 FY2025 results ended on November 30th 2024
- Revenue: $14.1B, +9% YoY
- Net Income: $3.2B, +26% YoY
- EPS: $1.10, +24% YoY
- Cloud Revenue: $5.9B, +24% YoY
CEO Safra Catz: "Record level AI demand drove Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue up 52% in Q2, a much higher growth rate than any of our hyperscale cloud infrastructure competitors. Growth in the AI segment of our Infrastructure business was extraordinary—GPU consumption was up 336% in the quarter."
🌱Revenue & Growth
- Cloud Services & License Support: $10.8B, +12% YoY
- Cloud License & On-Premise: $1.2B, +1% YoY
- Hardware: $728M, -4% YoY
- Services: $1.3B, -3% YoY
- Americas Revenue: $8.9B, +11% YoY
- Europe/Middle East/Africa: $3.4B, +7% YoY
- Asia Pacific: $1.7B, +2% YoY
💰Profits & Financials
- Operating Income: $4.2B, +17% YoY
- Operating Margin: 30% vs 28% YoY
- Free Cash Flow: $9.5B (trailing 12 months)
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $10.9B
- Total Debt: $88.6B
- Quarterly Dividend: $0.40 per share
📌Business Highlights
- Cloud Infrastructure Revenue grew 52% YoY
- GPU consumption increased 336% in Q2
- Signed agreement with Meta for AI Cloud Infrastructure
- Developing AI Agents based on Meta's Llama models
- Total Remaining Performance Obligations reached $97B, +49% YoY
🔮Future Outlook
- Total Oracle Cloud revenue expected to exceed $25B this fiscal year
- Focused on expanding AI infrastructure capabilities
- Continuing development of specialized AI models and agents
- Expanding partnerships for AI cloud infrastructure services
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