Global markets are in a phase of sharp correction*and risk aversion. Caution over the unfolding earnings season is combining with persistent worries about the Dollar and slowing growth, pushing the vast majority of sectors lower.

🇺🇸 US Equities (Pre-market)

S&P 500 (Futures) — Moving in a decisive drop, markets are pricing in a strong negative open.

$DJ30 — Sharp decline, dragged down by industrial and financial stocks.

$NSDQ100 — Under heavy pressure, the tech sector is the hardest hit by renewed *risk-offsentiment.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+2,31 %) — Down, the semiconductor sector is under pressure.

$GOOGL (+1,8 %) — Down, the Communication Services sector is taking losses.

$AVGO (+1,78 %) — Down, the semiconductor complex is negative.

$META (+0,46 %) — Down, aligning with the tech sector's weakness.

$MSFT (+0,63 %) — Down, the stock is losing ground.

$QBTS (+3,39 %) — Sharp correction, speculative stocks are hit by profit-taking.

$RGTI (+3,78 %) — Down, following the *new techcorrection.

$TSM (+1,4 %) — Down, chip optimism isn't holding against macro pressure.

$RR. (+1,01 %) — Down, the industrial sector is weak.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (+1,56 %) — Down, negative sentiment weighs on consumer confidence.

$BABA (+1,49 %) — Down, global uncertainties hit Chinese stocks.

$CVNA (+3,03 %) — Down, the stock is losing ground.

$SHOP (+3,64 %) — Down, retail tech is under pressure.

🇪🇺 Europe & Industrials

STOXX 600 — Decidedly negative*open, global pessimism is hitting Europe.

GER40 — Sharp drop, weakness is widespread.

$LDO (-0,99 %) — Down, the defense sector is cautious.

$IBE (+0,41 %) — Down, utilities are under pressure.

$OKLO — Down, the new tech stock is seeing profit-taking.

🏦 Banks & Finance

$UCG.MI, $ISP.MI — Down, the banking sector is under global pressure.

$BAMI.MI, $CE.MI, $BPE.MI — Down, Italian banks are giving up ground after the recent isolated rally.

$BBVA.MC — Down, the financial sector is impacted by the *risk-offmove.

$AXP, $V — Down, payment services are affected by consumer spending fears.

💱 Forex

$DXY — The Dollar Index is moving in a solid rally, acting as a haven in this environment.

$EURUSD — Down, the Euro loses ground against the Dollar.

$USDJPY — Up, the Yen is weakening due to the strong Dollar.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (-0,34 %) — Sharp correction, gold is down amid profit-taking after the recent double top (near $4400$).

$BRENT / $WTI — Down, oil is under pressure due to global demand fears.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (+0,4 %) / $ETH (-0,23 %) — Down, cryptocurrencies are under heavy pressure and aligned with the equity *risk-offmove, testing critical support levels.

In Summary: Caution has turned into fear. Weakness is generalized, with investors retreating from growth assets and even traditional havens like Gold, primarily driven by the strength of the Dollar. Focus remains squarely on $NFLX$ and $TSLA$ earnings, which could set the tone for the rest of the week.

Follow the Analysis:

For daily real-time market insights, *deep dives*, and trading discussions, follow me on X: [https://x.com/ThomasVioli](https://x.com/ThomasVioli)

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⚠️ Disclaimer:*Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

Today, October 21, 2025, global markets are mixed, but $BPE (+1,74 %) is absolutely dominating the scene. With a rally of +6.55%(at the open), the stock confirms itself as a pillar of my strategy.

While the $NSDQ100 loses momentum, BPER's performance in Milan—which is the fifth-largest holding in my portfolio—demonstrates how fundamental analysis can isolate specific stocks from macro fears.

🔎 Market & BPER Deep Dive

The Driver Behind the $BPE (+1,74 %) Rally:

The exceptional surge is fueled by strong positive sentiment related to optimistic corporate forecastsand the finalization of the Banca Popolare di Sondrio merger. Recent upward revisions of target pricesby analysts (like Barclays) and the bank's improved capital strength (CET1 Ratio) are insulating the stock from the concerns affecting other European banks. The market is rewarding efficiency and synergy realization.

Global Context: Is the Rally Sustainable?

Yesterday's risk-on rally is quickly losing steam:

Dollar Strength ($DXY$):The Dollar's return to strength is breaking the positive sentiment across nearly all risk assets and new tech.

Tech and Crypto:Following strong initial gains, $BTC (+0,4 %) , $ETH (-0,23 %) , and many Tech stocks ($GOOGL (+1,8 %) , $NVDA (+2,31 %) struggling) are undergoing a correction, confirming their vulnerability to risk-offsentiment.

Gold $GLD (-0,34 %) & Oil:Gold is sharply correcting, signaling that systemic fear is retreating. Meanwhile, oil hits 5-month lows due to supply concerns.

💼 My Strategy: Focus on Fundamentals

BPER's surge (6.55%) on a cautious global day reinforces the importance of selecting stocks based on strong fundamentalsover short-term sentiment. I continue to maintain my focus on:

1. Quality Stockswith strong, specific catalysts (like the BPER merger).

2. Strategic Technology($NVDA, $TSM$).

3. Active Risk Managementto absorb market shocks like last week's sell-off.

For daily real-time market insights, deep dives, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.etoro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

🇺🇸 USA

$SPX500 — Futures indicate a slight decline, showing loss of momentum after yesterday's rally, driven by negative tech futures.

$DJ30 — Down slightly, affected by the cautious sentiment and renewed Dollar strength.

$NSDQ100 — Under pressure, the tech rally has faded, leading to pre-market weakness.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+2,31 %) — Down slightly (-0.10%), the chipmaker stock is struggling to hold onto yesterday's gains.

$GOOGL (+1,8 %) — Down (-0.44%), aligning with the cautious sentiment in the tech sector.

$AVGO (+1,78 %) — Up slightly (0.09%), showing resilience in the semiconductor space.

$META (+0,46 %) — Down slightly (-0.02%), the Communication Services sector is mixed.

$MSFT (+0,63 %) — Up slightly (0.02%), the stock is essentially flat.

$QBTS (+3,39 %) — Down (-0.53%), the quantum sector is actively correcting.

$RGTI (+3,78 %) — Down (-0.51%), in line with the broader *new techcorrection.

$TSM (+1,4 %) — Up (0.80%), showing strong resilience and helping to support the chip sector.

$RR. (+1,01 %) — Down slightly (-0.06%), the Industrial/Aerospace stock is mixed.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (+1,56 %) — Up slightly (0.06%), essentially flat, following the mixed tech trend.

$BABA (+1,49 %) — Down (-1.99%), experiencing a clear drop, reflecting heavy selling in Chinese stocks.

$CVNA (+3,03 %) — Down slightly (-0.06%), losing ground.

$SHOP (+3,64 %) — Down (-0.64%), retail tech is under pressure.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

$LLY (+0,54 %) — Up slightly (0.01%), holding up better than the general market.

$HIMS (+1,27 %) — Stable (0.00%), in line with the cautious mood.

$INSM (-0,36 %) — Stable (0.00%), the biotech sector is mixed.

🇪🇺 Europe & Industrials

STOXX 600 — Opening solidly up, exceeding initial caution (resilience driven by defensive sectors).

GER40 — Up, showing resilience.

$LDO (-0,99 %) — Up slightly (0.38%), the defense sector is stable.

$IBE (+0,41 %) — Up (0.53%), the utilities sector is in the green, showing defensive appeal.

$OKLO — Down (-0.56%), the new tech stock is experiencing profit-taking.

🏦 Banking & Finance

$UCG (-2 %) — Up slightly (0.13%), Italian banks are mixed.

$ISP (-0,36 %) — Up slightly (0.16%), showing a modest gain.

$BAMI (+0 %)
$CE (-0,45 %) , $BPE (+1,74 %) — BPER Banca ($BPE.MI$) is in a massive rally (6.55%), strongly counter-trending the sector; $CE.MI$ is up $1.36\%$.

$BBVA (-0,12 %) — Down (-0.81%), showing clear pressure and vulnerability today.

$AXP (+0,56 %) — Down (-0.26%), ahead of today's earnings report.

$V (+0,08 %) — Down (-0.19%), following cautious sentiment in the payments sector.

$CS (+0,17 %) — Up slightly (0.15%), the financial services sector is mixed.

🌏 Asia

$JPN225 — Close in a solid gain, with the Nikkei hitting $50,000$.

$KOSPI — Close mixed/stable, Korean tech holds up.

$HK50 — Up, the index is recovering.

$CHINA50 — Up, tracking positive global sentiment.

💱 Forex

$EURUSD — Down, the Euro loses ground as the Dollar recovers.

$GBPUSD — Down, the Pound is under pressure.

$USDJPY — Solidly up, the Yen is falling as the Dollar makes a strong recovery.

$DXY — The Dollar Index is moving sharply higher, breaking the risk-on sentiment.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (-0,34 %) — Stable (0.00%), gold is pausing after yesterday's correction.

$CDE (-1,6 %) — Stable (0.00%), following the gold correction.

$BRENT — Down slightly, oil drops to a 5-month low.

$WTI — Losing ground, in line with Brent.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (+0,4 %) — Down, crypto is undergoing a significant correction.

$ETH (-0,23 %) — Down, following Bitcoin.

$TRX (-1,64 %) — Down, the altcoin sector is negative.

$CRO (+2,36 %) — Down, in line with overall negative sentiment.

🚀 Space & New Tech

$RKLB (+1,36 %) — Up (2.75%), strong counter-trend move in high-beta growth stocks.

🔎 Deep Dive: The Market Divergence

The key theme today is divergence. US indices futures are soft, but specific European stocks are surging (BPER Banca is up over $6\%$) in a massive counter-trend move, highlighting local corporate strength despite global caution. The New Tech sector is mixed: $TSM$ is surprisingly up, while $NVDA$ is slightly down. The Dollar ($DXY$) continues its strength, penalizing risk assets like Bitcoin ($BTC$), while Utilities ($IBE.MC$) and specific banks demonstrate insulation. Today is a major test with $NFLX and $LMT reporting.

For daily real-time market insights, *deep dives*, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.etoro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang ( $NVDA (+2,31 %) ), recently made headlines when he claimed that global spending on AI infrastructure (AI CapEx) could soar from about $600 billion today to $3–4 trillion per year by 2030.

The number sounds astronomical. Yet, according to a new analysis by JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), this vision might actually be financially feasible—though it comes with serious caveats.

The Rationale Behind the Forecast

JPMorgan argues that the explosive growth of AI applications, combined with the massive need for computing power, data centers, and energy systems, could drive the tech industry into an unprecedented investment cycle.

Even with an annual funding gap of roughly $1.6 trillion, private markets could contribute about $500 billion per year through 2030, while the rest could be covered by leverage, corporate debt, and bond issuance.

The bank estimates that around 40 % of the new debt (~$430 billion) could come from bank loans, while 60 % (~$640 billion) might be raised through bond markets.

Despite the scale, the sector’s net-debt-to-cash-flow ratio would likely rise only modestly—from 0.7× to 1.2×—remaining below the global average.

In simple terms: the money exists, and the system can likely absorb it.

The Energy Bottleneck

Where things get complicated, however, is energy. JPMorgan warns that the real constraint won’t be funding—it will be the power grid.

The rapid proliferation of AI data centers demands enormous amounts of electricity, cooling, and physical infrastructure, stretching grids to their limits.

Without a major global upgrade in generation capacity and transmission infrastructure, the energy system could become the new bottleneck of the AI revolution.

Why the Scenario Isn’t Pure Fantasy

The $3–4 trillion figure refers to annual spending by the end of the decade, not cumulative investment until 2030.

And it doesn’t just involve chipmakers like Nvidia or AMD. It spans the entire AI value chain—from semiconductor suppliers and data-center operators to power utilities, construction firms, and software integrators.

If realized, this would mark one of the largest capital-investment shifts in modern history—comparable to the internet boom of the 1990s or the mobile revolution of the 2000s.

Still, that doesn’t mean every “AI-related” company will skyrocket. Capital will flow toward players with durable moats, differentiated technologies, and real cash-flow strength.

The Big Picture

JPMorgan’s message is twofold:

• Yes, the $3–4 trillion AI CapEx vision is theoretically achievable.
• No, it won’t happen automatically without massive upgrades in energy infrastructure and policy stability.

AI isn’t just about algorithms or software. It’s a new industrial revolution that will demand cement, steel, electricity, and enormous physical investment to sustain itself.

Final Thought

Whether this vision materializes won’t depend solely on financing—it will hinge on the world’s real-world infrastructure.

Technology moves fast, but power grids and cooling systems don’t get built overnight.

If AI truly is the next industrial revolution, then 2030 will belong not only to chipmakers—but also to those who fuel this transformation with energy, materials, and bold ideas.

#AI
#Nvidia
#JPMorgan
#Energy
#CapEx
#Investing

🇺🇸 USA

$SPX500 — Futures indicate a decisive surge, with the market attempting to recover losses from last week's banking sell-off.

$DJ30 — Futures in a solid rise, showing generalized risk-on sentiment.

$NSDQ100 — Futures are strongly up, with tech leading the market rebound.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+2,31 %) — Up (0.55%), the stock is leading the semiconductor sector, confirming strong AI demand.

$GOOGL (+1,8 %) — Up (0.19%), the stock joins the positive Nasdaq trend.

$AVGO (+1,78 %) — Up (0.53%), the semiconductor sector benefits from renewed optimism.

$META (+0,46 %) — Up (0.48%), showing a strong recovery after recent weakness.

$MSFT (+0,63 %) — Up (0.36%), the stock regains momentum with positive sentiment.

$QBTS (+3,39 %) — Strongly up, quantum computing sentiment has turned positive amid the tech rebound.

$RGTI (+3,78 %) — Up sharply (3.08%), the quantum sector actively participates in the risk-on move.

$TSM (+1,4 %) — Up sharply (2.43%), boosted by optimism in the semiconductor sector.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (+1,56 %) — Up (0.80%), strong pre-market recovery, led by tech.

$BABA (+1,49 %) — Down (-0.57%), counter-trending Western tech, affected by Asian uncertainties.

$CVNA (+3,03 %) — Up (0.57%), the stock gains ground following the broader market trend.

$SHOP (+3,64 %) — Solidly up, retail tech is driven by the general risk-on mood.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

$LLY (+0,54 %) — Up, tracking the general market rebound.

$HIMS (+1,27 %) — Stable (0.00%), the stock is steady after last week's volatility.

$INSM (-0,36 %) — Stable (0.00%), the biotech sector cautiously joins the rally.

🇪🇺 Europe

STOXX 600 — Opening solidly up, in line with global optimism.

GER40 — Decisively higher, the German market regains momentum.

$LDO (-0,99 %) — Stable (0.00%), the defense sector is neutral in this rebound phase.

$$IBE (+0,41 %) — Stable (0.00%), utilities are static in a risk-on environment.

$OKLO — Up sharply (1.73%), advanced nuclear technology continues its positive trend.

🏦 Banking & Finance

$$UCG (-2 %) — Stable (0.00%), Italian banks are trying to establish a base after heavy selling.

$$ISP (-0,36 %) — Stable (0.00%), awaiting clearer signals.

$$BAMI (+0 %) , $CE (-0,45 %) , $BPE (+1,74 %) — Stable (0.00%), the financial sector shows caution despite the risk-on trend.

$$BBVA (-0,12 %) — Stable (0.00%), the Spanish stock is leading the European banking recovery.

$AXP (+0,56 %) — Up (0.59%), the payments sector participates in the rebound.

$V (+0,08 %) — Up (0.07%), confirming its positive tone.

🌏 Asia

$JPN225 — Close in a solid rise, led by optimism in tech markets.

$KOSPI — Close up, Korean tech drives the index.

$HK50 — Up, tech stocks recover despite BABA's uncertainties.

$CHINA50 — Up, following positive global sentiment.

💱 Forex

$EURUSD — Up, the Dollar is losing momentum in a risk-on phase.

$GBPUSD — Up, the market positively assesses prospects for a stronger economy.

$USDJPY — Down, the Yen is gaining ground.

$DXY — The Dollar Index is showing clear weakness.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (-0,34 %) — Down slightly (0.00%), gold consolidates as investors shift to riskier assets.

$CDE (-1,6 %) — Stable (0.00%), tracking the flat movement of gold.

$BRENT — Up, showing signs of demand recovery.

$WTI — Gaining ground, reflecting positive macroeconomic sentiment.

📈 Benchmark ETFs

$VOO (+0,68 %) — Tracking $SPX500$ futures higher.

$VGT (+1,34 %) — Up (0.00%), reflecting the strength of the technology sector.

$$CSNDX (+0,82 %) — Up (0.00%), tracking Nasdaq futures in positive territory.

$BND (-0,02 %) — Down (0.00%), reflecting rising yields.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (+0,4 %) — Strong recovery, the crypto sector bounces off the bottom and gains ground.

$ETH (-0,23 %) — Solidly up, following Bitcoin.

$TRX (-2,52 %) — Up (0.00%), the altcoin sector participates in the rally.

$CRO (+2,36 %) — Up, in line with overall positive sentiment.

🚀 Space & New Tech

$RKLB (+1,36 %) — Up, sentiment for growth stocks suggests a rebound.

🔎 Deep Dive: The Return of Risk-On

The week opens with a decisive "Risk-On" mood. Markets are clearly shrugging off (for now) last week's banking tensions, focusing instead on tech-led growth ($NVDA, $TSM$) and hopes for monetary easing. The strong rally in cryptocurrencies ($BTC, $ETH$) and the weakness of the Dollar ($DXY$) are clear indicators that liquidity is flowing back into riskier assets. European banks ($BBVA.MC$) and the semiconductor sector show unexpected strength, while gold ($GLD$) pauses, confirming the shift in focus from systemic risk to growth opportunities.

For daily real-time market insights, deep dives, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.etoro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.