SoftBank, Oracle and OpenAI are setting up a joint venture called Stargate and investing $500 billion in AI infrastructure projects in the US over the next four years. I have been very positive about the developments around the SoftBank Group for some time now, as you can see from previous posts. Microsoft, NVIDIA and ARM will also be technology partners in the project.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/ki/usa-openai-softbank-und-oracle-schmieden-kolossales-ki-buendnis/100102415.html

$9984 (+9,34 %)

$ORCL (+8,21 %)

$MSFT (+1,49 %)

$NVDA (+3,94 %)

$ARM (+3,82 %)

$NVDA (+3,94 %) I try to earn income every week with call options on Nvidia. I use a PMCC as a strategy

Trade is running. As always more info when premium is earned or losses need to be realized.

Here is an overview of all current option trades

A successful trading week to all

I've finally managed to convince my parents that it's time to dive into the stock market and start investing regularly. As of March, I have a monthly budget of €538 (mini-job), which I will invest in various ETFs and shares to build up a broadly diversified portfolio to have a good buffer after graduating from high school.

My plan:

1. core/buffer (70%)

The majority of my budget goes into broad and stable ETFs that offer broad diversification:

$IWDA (+0,04 %) (200 €): This is my basic ETF that covers companies from the largest and developed markets. It offers a stable and long-term source of growth.

$CSNDX (+0,55 %) (100 €): This ETF focuses on technology companies that are likely to continue to grow strongly over the next few years.

$XMME (-0,49 %) (75 €): I also want to invest in emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil to benefit from the momentum in these regions.

2. theme-specific ETFs (20%)

Here I focus on promising themes and markets:

$DFEN (+0,4 %) (50 €): An ETF that invests in the defense industry, a sector that could continue to grow in the coming years.

$INRG (-0,02 %) (50 €): Sustainability and the energy transition are important . I would therefore like to invest in renewable energies in order to benefit from green energy.

3. individual shares (10%)

I want to supplement my portfolio with individual stocks that have the potential for strong growth.

~60€ left for:

E.g

$NVDA (+3,94 %)

$TKA (+0,49 %)

I'm delighted that I can finally start investing and I'm excited to see how my portfolio will develop over the next few years!

Any ideas for improvement or tips? Keep them coming 👀

Hello my dears,

Today I'd like to give you a brief analysis of my portfolio in funnel form.

The upper funnel represents the core and the lower funnel the satellites.

What is striking here is the high cluster risk in Nvidia $NVDA (+3,94 %) and GFT technology $GFT (+0,11 %)

However, as I am still convinced of the two stocks, I am sticking with the large position. Nvidia is one of the largest positions in many ETFs, so I would almost include it in the core.

In the crypto area, I am still 0.89% in Defi Tech $DEFI (-0,42 %) and0.88% in Bitcoin $BITC (-1,59 %) which I will increase. Unfortunately, these positions were cut off at the bottom of the funnel.

I look forward to opinions and comments.

Podcast episode 71 "Buy High. Sell Low."

Subscribe to the podcast to get nuclear power plants back on the grid in Germany. Inshallah.

00:00:00 20 power stocks for AI: Constellation Energy, Rolls-Royce, Schneider Electric, Siemens Energy, Cameco, Fluor Corporation, Vistra Corp, RWE, GDF Suez, Enel, Flowserve, Uniper, Crane Co, Quanta Services, MasTec, Legrand, Emerson Electric, Eaton Corporation, Uranium Energy, VanEck Uranium and Nuclear Technologies ETF A3D47K

39:30 Watchlist Max: Fluor Corporation, Schneider Electric, Quanta Services, MasTec, Legrand, Eaton Corporation

00:41:00 AMD

01:10:00 Apple

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/08XzNKA3nuiMlpcz9BYixB?si=qhG3ie7ETXm8O20VPEsp_w

YouTube

https://youtu.be/6olb6fp5AbQ

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/folge-72-20-stromaktien-f%C3%BCr-ki-amd-apple/id1695869891?i=1000684571374

#podcast
#spotify
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$TSM (+1,19 %)
$2330

• Revenue: $26.24B (Est. $25.83B) ; +39% YoY
• Net Income: $11.31B (Est. $11.17B) ; +57% YoY
• Gross Margin: 59.0% (Est. 58.5%) ; +53% YoY
• Oper. Margin: 49.0% (Est. 48.1%)
• FY25 CapEx: $38B - $42B (Est. $35.15B)
• FY24 CapEx: $29.76B (Est. ~$29.5B)

Q1'25 Guidance:

• Revenue: $25B - $25.8B (Est. $24.43B)
• Gross Margin: 57% - 59%
• Operating Margin: 46.5% - 48.5% (Est. 46.4%)
• Management expects a ~5.5% sequential revenue drop (smartphone seasonality) but sustained robust AI demand.

Long-Term Revenue CAGR: ~20% (2024-2028)

• AI-related revenue was mid-teens percent of total in 2024 and is expected to double in 2025, with a ~40% CAGR for AI accelerators through 2029.
• AI & HPC cited as main growth engines
• Smartphone & PC segments also gain from higher silicon content

Q4 Process & Segment Details:

• Wafer Shipments: 3.418M; UP +15.6% YoY
• ASP per wafer: ~$6,850 (FY basis); UP +19% YoY
• Advanced Technologies (7nm & below): 74% of total wafer revenue (vs. 69% in Q3)
• 3nm: 26% (vs. 20% in Q3)
• 5nm: 34% (vs. 32% in Q3)
• 7nm: 14% (vs. 17% in Q3)

Q4 revenue by product platform

• HPC (incl. AI): 53% (vs. 51% in Q3) - HPC up +69% YoY
• Smartphone: 35% (vs. 34% in Q3)
• IoT: 5%
• Automotive: 4%
• Consumer Electronics: 1%
• Others: 2%

Q4 Revenue by Geography

• North America: 75% (vs. 71% in Q3)
• China: 9%
• Asia Pacific (ex-China): 9%
• Japan: 4%
• EMEA: 3%

Capital Expenditure:

• FY24 CapEx: $29.76B (Est. ~$29.5B)

- ~70% allocated to advanced nodes (N3, N2)

- ~10-20% for specialty tech & non-wafer (e.g., advanced packaging, mask)

• Sees FY25 CapEx: $38B - $42B (Est. $35.15B)

- "Higher than 2024" to fund advanced nodes (N3, N2) & packaging expansions

- Overseas fabs contribute to increased spending

Advanced Packaging (CoWoS, SoIC):

• ~8% of revenue in 2024; expected to exceed 10% in 2025
• "Any rumors about CoWoS order cuts are simply not true. We continue to increase capacity."

Comment from the management:

Sales drivers and overall performance in the 4th quarter

• "We attribute our sales performance in the fourth quarter to strong demand for 3 nm and 5 nm process technologies."
• "Advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer sales compared to 69% in the third quarter."

Full year 2024 and future outlook

• "TSMC expects 2025 to be another strong growth year, with revenue growth of over 20% in US dollar terms."
• "Over the next five years (from 2024), we expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20%, driven primarily by AI-related demand and the continued growth of silicon content in smartphones and PCs."

• "In 2024, AI-related revenue was a mid-double-digit percentage of TSMC's total revenue. It is expected to double by 2025 as the strong increase in AI demand continues."

• "We expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% for AI accelerator revenue over the next five years (2025-2029). This is an important driver for future growth."

AI demand, HPC and HBM

• "Memory will grow overall, but HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory) will grow very fast."

• "Demand for AI has more than tripled at TSMC in the last year and we expect it to more than double again in 2025."

• "We continue to see a robust demand profile in AI and can only hope that we can get enough teams and capacity together to support this growth."

Comment on rumors and expansion abroad

• "Rumors about capacity cuts at CoWoS are just rumors - we are continuing to expand our capacity. There are no plans to cut orders."

• "Factories abroad, including in the US and Japan, have an annual gross margin dilution effect of 2-3%, mainly due to smaller scale and higher supply chain costs. We expect this 2-3% margin effect to continue over the next five years."

• "Taiwan will always be the first to ramp up new nodes due to its proximity to our R&D labs (Hsinchu). Other factories abroad will follow depending on customer demand and government support."

• "Our factory in Arizona has started mass production of N4. The second factory is on schedule to produce N3 or N2 technology. Japan's second factory is planned for 2025 and Europe's first factory is also on schedule."

Non-AI markets and silicon content

• "Smartphones are still experiencing low single-digit growth, but the trend towards higher silicon content (AI features, advanced functions) will drive further growth and shorten replacement cycles."

• "PC is similar: overall unit growth is modest, but AI features in PCs are increasing, leading to advanced nodes and higher ASP."

Export controls and demand from China

• "We believe the new US export rules are manageable. We will apply for special licenses for customers as needed, especially in the automotive, industrial or other non-AI use cases."

• "China remains an important market, but currently only accounts for around 9-10% of sales. We continue to work within the regulatory framework."

Silicon photonics and packaging

• "We've had some technical success with silicon photonics, but we probably won't reach significant volumes for another year to a year and a half."

• "Advanced packaging accounted for over 8% of sales in 2024 and is expected to be over 10% in 2025. Our margins for advanced packaging are still slightly below the company average, but are improving."

• "The demand for CoWoS is extremely high for HPC and AI. Other applications (such as smartphones or PCs) may adopt CoWoS in the future, but for now the focus is on AI."

HBM, partnerships and supply chain

• "We are working with all memory manufacturers to provide advanced logic for HBM controllers. It could be another 1.5 years before significant product production from HBM-related logic makes a big revenue contribution."

• "We do not see TSMC as a bottleneck for AI demand. We are expanding capacity for advanced packaging (CoWoS) as quickly as possible and working with memory partners to align capacity."

Margins & pricing strategy

• "We operate in a capital-intensive business and therefore need a healthy gross margin to continue investing in advanced technologies. Pricing must reflect this."

• "We are seeing several cost headwinds including N3 ramps, N2 R&D, conversions from N5 to N3, inflationary pressures and higher costs overseas. We remain confident that we will achieve a gross margin of ~53% or more in the long term."

• "For wafers produced in the US, we are discussing with customers how they will bear the higher costs. Customers understand that the cost structure is different."

Further questions and answers for CEO/CFO

• "We don't comment on competitors' IDMs, we just say that they are important customers. This business is important to us."

• "AI includes CPUs, GPUs, ASICs and HBM logic for HPC/data centers. Edge AI could create 5-10% more chip area in smartphones/PCs, further driving the adoption of advanced nodes."

• "Currently, SoIC is mainly used in AI applications, but we expect more applications in the future."

• "We expect continued strong growth in the AI sector in 2026, although we have not yet made a specific forecast. Our focus is on ensuring sufficient capacity."

• "We are focused on narrowing the cost gap between factories in the US and Japan, but realistically the scale will remain smaller than Taiwan for years to come."

Final note from the CEO

• "2025 will be another strong year. We expect a 20% increase in sales in US dollars, driven by AI and our advanced technologies. We are ramping 3nm and preparing for N2 and beyond to maintain TSMC's technology leadership."

$ASML (+1,18 %) , $ASML (+1,09 %) , $NVDA (+3,94 %) , $AMD (+0,92 %) , $KLAC (-0,03 %) , $QCOM (+0,47 %) , $INTC (-0,62 %) , $MU (+1,55 %) ,