Good morning dear Getquin community 👋

Today I'd like to introduce you to The Humanoid 66 and what it's all about. The market for humanoid robotics is just taking off and is facing one of the biggest upheavals since the advent of the automobile. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs expect the market to be worth between 38 billion and three trillion US dollars by 2035. By 2050, over 60 million humanoid robots could be in use in the USA alone.

With The Humanoid 66, Morgan Stanley has compiled a list of 66 companies that are likely to benefit directly or indirectly from this development. These include not only the manufacturers themselves, but also suppliers and technology groups that provide the necessary infrastructure, from semiconductor and battery producers to sensor technology and software through to platform operators for artificial intelligence.

The leading players include $TSLA (-6,86 %) Tesla with Optimus, Figure AI with Figure 02, Agility Robotics with Digit, Boston Dynamics with Atlas and Unitree with H1 and G1. Tesla is already planning to use more than a thousand Optimus robots in its own factories by 2024. The goal is clear: to make humanoid machines suitable for mass production at prices between 20,000 and 30,000 US dollars. Figure AI works closely with $MSFT (-3,3 %) Microsoft, OpenAI and $BMW (-2,64 %) BMW and was able to raise over 675 million US dollars in a financing round.

Technological progress is the key driver of this development. Multimodal generative AI enables humanoid robots to understand speech, communicate with humans and perform tasks autonomously. Advances in actuator technology, LiDAR systems, force sensors and battery technology are making the machines more efficient and more human-like. The energy density of modern lithium-ion cells is increasing by around 20 percent every two years, while the cost per kilowatt hour is expected to fall to 80 US dollars by 2030.

At the same time, wage costs for human labor are rising significantly. In the USA, they are currently just under 40 US dollars per hour, while in China they are around 6.50 US dollars and in India 4.45 US dollars. Studies show that automation can reduce labor costs in industrialized countries such as Germany, Japan and the USA by up to a third by 2025. Sectors such as agriculture, construction, care, logistics and manufacturing, where millions of jobs remain unfilled today, will be particularly affected.

The Humanoid 66 shows that this change goes far beyond individual companies. A new industrial ecosystem is emerging that links hardware, software, energy and data. Price reduction, scalability and integration into existing value chains will determine who will be among the winners.

Takeaway: Humanoid robotics is no longer a vision of the future, but the beginning of a structural reorganization of the global economy. Those who invest early in key areas such as AI chips, batteries, sensor technology and automation are positioning themselves in a sector that is likely to have a similarly profound impact as the invention of the car. The crucial question is just how far society is prepared to accept and integrate this new form of workforce.

For those who want to delve deeper: These are the companies featured in the Morgan Stanley report Humanoids @Tenbagger2024
@Multibagger

1. Tesla - USA - $TSLA (-6,86 %)

2. Toyota - Japan - $7203 (-2,77 %)

3. Xpeng - China - $XPEV (-7,58 %)

4. Naver - South Korea - (not listed)

5. CATL - China - $3750 (-10,56 %)

6. LG Energy Solution - South Korea - $373220 Subsidiary of LG

7. Samsung / Samsung SDI - South Korea - $SMSN (-4,06 %)

8. SK Innovation - South Korea - $096770

9. HD Hyundai Infracore / Doosan (component) - South Korea - $042670

10. Hengli Hydraulic - China - $601100

11. NTN - Japan - $6472 (-4,11 %)

12. NSK - Japan - $6471 (-4,11 %)

13. Sanhua - China - $002050

14. Siemens - Germany - $SIE (-2,34 %)

15. Top Group ("Topu") - China - $601689

16. Ambarella - USA - $AMBA (-13,21 %)

17. Synopsys - USA - $SNPS (-12,42 %)

18. NXP - Netherlands / USA - $NXPI (-8,34 %)

19. Qualcomm - USA - $QCOM (-8,32 %)

20. TSMC - Taiwan - $TSM (-6,55 %)

21. Wolfspeed - USA - $WOLF (-11,73 %)

22. ARM - UK - $ARM (-10,82 %)

23. onsemi - USA - $ON (-7,46 %)

24. cadence - USA - $CDNS (-9,81 %)

25. STMicroelectronics - Netherlands - $STM (-5,65 %)

26. NVIDIA - USA - $NVDA (-6,14 %)

27. SK hynix - South Korea - $HY9H (-4,16 %)

28. sociionext - Japan - $6526

29. SMIC - China - $0981

30. infineon - Germany - $IFX (-4,21 %)

31. Renesas - Japan - $6723 (-2,94 %)

32. Dassault Systèmes - France - $DSY (-2,25 %)

33. Mobileye - Israel / Intel ecosystem - $MBLY

34. Hexagon - Sweden - $HEXA B (-3,76 %)

35. Knight Transportation - USA - $KNX (-5,68 %)

36. DSV - Denmark - $DSV (-1,67 %)

37. Werner Enterprises - USA - $WERN (-6,56 %)

38. DHL Group - Germany / international - $DHL (-1,89 %)

39. Kuehne + Nagel - Switzerland - $KNIN (-1,33 %)

40. Obayashi - Japan - $1802 (-5,13 %)

41. China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) - China - $601668

42. RBG (presumably an Asian construction company) - (not listed)

43. Shimizu - Japan - $1803 (-2,67 %)

44. Taisei - Japan - $1801 (-5,74 %)

45. Baker Hughes - USA - $BKR (-6,26 %)

46th SLB (Schlumberger) - USA - $SLB

47. Tenaris - Luxembourg / multinational - $TEN (-5,24 %)

48. Halliburton - USA - $HAL (-7,26 %)

49. amazon - USA - $AMZN (-5,92 %)

50th Coupang - South Korea $CPNG (-4,08 %)

51. JD.com - China - $JD (-6,72 %)

52. BMW - Germany - $BMW (-2,64 %)

53rd Mercedes-Benz - Germany - $MBG (-1 %)

54th General Motors - USA - $GM (-1,22 %)

55. BYD - China - $1211 (-4,45 %)

56. Stellantis - NL / multinational - $STLAM (-7,66 %)

57. Ford - USA - $F (-1,41 %)

58. McDonald's - USA - $MCD (+0,18 %)

59th Domino's - USA - $DPZ (+0,06 %)

60. BGF Retail - South Korea - $282330

61. GS Retail - South Korea - $007070

62nd Lotte - South Korea - $004990

63. Yum China - China - $YUMC (+2,11 %)

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Bluepaper Humanoids Investment Implications of Embodied AI and Stock3 drumbeat of Germany's humanoid robot manufacturers The Humanoid 66, 05.10.2025

https://api.guidants.com/db/e6/4/e134c52068e8c98a.pdf

Hello dear Getquin Community,

This year's IAA Mobility in Munich showed that the automotive industry is on the verge of a turning point. With over 30 percent more exhibitors than in 2023 and numerous premieres from Audi, $BMW (-2,64 %) BMW, $MBG (-1 %) Mercedes, $VOW3 (-2,24 %) VW, Opel and Chinese challengers such as BYD and $1211 (-4,45 %) BYD and $9868 (-8,75 %) XPeng, it became clear that electromobility has now become the standard. However, behind these new platforms and concepts lies an even bigger topic, namely autonomous driving and the robotaxis of the future.

In order to present this field in a clear and transparent way for investors, I have broken down the entire value chain into individual sectors. These include automotive and suppliers, semiconductors and technology, communication and infrastructure, software and algorithms, logistics and transportation, insurance and finance, energy and infrastructure, battery and propulsion, maps and mapping, and safety and cybersecurity. Within each sector, I have analyzed the big players, the hidden champions and the blade manufacturers and highlighted my favorites in each case with a brief explanation. @Multibagger 😎

My aim was to develop as comprehensive a picture as possible that shows where the opportunities lie in this new industry and how investors can position themselves at an early stage. Perhaps the IAA 2025 was not just a car show, but actually the starting signal for the next big investment ecosystem around robotaxis and autonomous driving. If I have overlooked any important aspects or if a categorization was not quite precise, I look forward to your comments @BamBamInvest
@Epi
😎 and exciting additions @All-in-or-nothing 😎 Together we can understand this topic even better and learn from each other. @Tenbagger2024 😎

Feel free to leave a 👍. I wish you every success with your investments 🚀

🚘 Automotive & suppliers

Big player:

$TSLA (-6,86 %) Tesla - pioneer in autopilot/FSD, vertical integration, huge database

$MBG (-1 %) Mercedes-Benz Group - EQS/EQE with Level 3 approval in Germany, strong regulatory expertise

$BMW (-2,64 %) BMW - New class platform, e-models with prepared sensor technology & level 3 approaches

$VOW (-1,77 %) VW Volkswagen - Cariad software unit, massive push towards ADAS/AV

$7203 (-2,77 %) Toyota (Japan) - largest OEM, cooperation with Pony.ai and Denso

$GOOGL (-3,4 %) Alphabet Waymo (private/Alphabet $GOOGL) - robotaxi pioneer in the USA

$9888 (-8,29 %) Baidu Apollo (9888.HK) - Robotaxi & Full-Stack AV in China

$Pony.ai (private, China) - Robotaxi & partnerships with Toyota

👉 Favorite: Alphabet Waymo ($GOOGL (-3,4 %))

Moat through years of data collection in real operation, deep AI integration, financially secured by Alphabet. Compounder potential, as Waymo can scale as a platform.

Hidden champions:

$APTV (-4,84 %) Aptiv - supplier for ADAS, sensor fusion, E/E architectures

$MG (-2,73 %) Magna International - produces complete vehicle systems including autonomous components

$ZF Friedrichshafen (private) - German giant in steering and braking systems for AVs

Veoneer (private, formerly listed) - safety software, vision, sensor technology

$SHA0 (-2,39 %) Schaeffler AG (DE, Germany, Xetra) - global supplier of drive, chassis and intelligent steering systems. Important for e-mobility and redundancy solutions in autonomous driving.

👉 Favorite: Aptiv ($APTV (-4,84 %)
)

High barriers to entry through system integration, broad customer base (OEM-agnostic), strong cash flow and close partner of major car manufacturers.

Blade manufacturer:

$NVDA (-6,14 %) Nvidia - Drive Orin / Thor chips for OEMs, standard in the AV sector

$QCOM (-8,32 %) Qualcomm - Snapdragon Ride platform for AVs

$INTC (-5,15 %) Intel Mobileye - EyeQ chips, one of the market leaders in ADAS

$LAZR (-8,11 %) Luminar Technologies - Lidar, partnerships with Volvo, Mercedes, SAIC

$OUST Ouster, Inc. - Lidar solutions

$INVZ Innoviz (INVZ) - Lidar sensor technology, cooperation with VW & BMW

👉 Favorite: Nvidia ($NVDA (-6,14 %)
)

Dominance in high-performance AI chips, ecosystem with software (CUDA, DriveSim), network effects through partnerships with almost all OEMs. Classic compounder, enormous moat due to technology and developer lock-in.

Takeaway:

In the automotive & supplier sector, it's not just who sells the most cars, but who has mastered the best technology stack for autonomy. OEMs work closely with specialized suppliers and blade manufacturers. Investors should focus less on unit numbers and more on data basis, software expertise and partnerships. The real levers often lie with suppliers and technology enablers, not just the traditional car brands.

💻 Semiconductors & technology

Big players:

$NVDA (-6,14 %) Nvidia - GPUs & AV chips (Drive Orin, Drive Thor), software ecosystem

$QCOM (-8,32 %) Qualcomm - Snapdragon Ride platform, automotive pipeline >30 billion USD

$INTC (-5,15 %) Intel / Mobileye - EyeQ chips, ADAS market leader

$AMD (-10,01 %) AMD - GPU/CPU, entry into automotive AI compute

👉 Favorite: Nvidia ($NVDA (-6,14 %)
) Unique position: Technological moat through CUDA ecosystem, enabler of almost all AV developments, quasi-monopoly in high-end compute. Classic compounder with long-term growth leverage.

Hidden champions:

$LAZR (-8,11 %) Luminar Technologies - Lidar supplier, partnerships (Volvo, Mercedes, SAIC)

$INVZ Innoviz Tech. - Lidar, BMW & VW as customers

$KOTMY Koito Manufacturing - world market leader in automotive lighting, entry into lidar through Cepton integration, important role as supplier for OEMs

$AMBA (-13,21 %) Ambarella (AMBA) - camera chips & vision processors for AV

$STMPA (-5,64 %) STMicroelectronics (France/Italy, Euronext) - automotive microcontrollers, sensors, power electronics. European counterpart to Infineon.

$AIXA (-7,29 %) Aixtron (Germany, Xetra) - supplies manufacturing equipment for SiC and GaN semiconductors, indispensable for power electronics in EV/AV.

$ELG (-4,04 %) Elmos Semiconductor (Germany, Xetra) - niche player for mixed-signal semiconductors in automotive, e.g. for radar and driver assistance.

👉 Favorite: Luminar ($LAZR (-8,11 %)
) Clear technical USP, strategic OEM deals in series production, high barriers to entry in lidar technology. Scalable compounder in a niche market.

Blade manufacturer:

$TSM (-6,55 %) Taiwan Semiconductor - production of all relevant automotive chips

$ASML (-5,06 %) ASML Holding - Lithography monopolist, without ASML no AI/AV chips

$EQIX (-1,43 %) Equinix - data center colocation for AI training & simulations

$DLR (-3,41 %) Digital Realty - cloud and data infrastructure

$AMZN (-5,92 %) Amazon AWS - Cloud resources for AI training, simulation & OTA updates

👉 Favorite: ASML ($ASML (-5,06 %)
) Monopoly on EUV lithography, no advanced chips for autonomous driving without ASML. Moat through technology and patents, classic compounder.

Takeaway:

Semiconductors & technology are the foundation of autonomous driving. While Nvidia plays the central role with computing power, lidar specialists such as Luminar ensure perception. The real shovelware winner, however, is ASML, without whose machines there would be no AV chips. Investors will find the deepest technological moats in the entire value chain here.

📡 Communication & infrastructure

Big players:

$ERIC B (-0,31 %) Ericsson - 5G/6G networks, vehicle-to-everything (V2X) applications, global player

$NOK (+2,68 %) Nokia - 5G/Edge solutions for automotive & smart cities

$QCOM (-8,32 %) Qualcomm - Snapdragon Digital Chassis, V2X chipsets, automotive pipeline

Huawei (private, China) - strong player in 5G/AV communication, partnerships in Asia

👉 Favorite: Qualcomm ($QCOM (-8,32 %)
) Wide moat through IP in mobile communications, at the same time deep automotive integration via Snapdragon Ride & Digital Chassis. Compounder, as economies of scale in chips + licenses worldwide.

Hidden champions:

$Cohda Wireless (private, Australia) - pioneer for V2X communication, software solutions for OEMs

$Autotalks (private, Israel, acquisition by Qualcomm planned) - leader in dedicated V2X chips

Commsignia (private, Hungary) - V2X middleware & roadside units

👉 Favorite: Autotalks (private, Israel)

Technology leader in dedicated V2X chips, unique IP portfolio. Strong takeover candidate (Qualcomm already active), giving moat + exit potential.

Shovel manufacturer:

$CSCO (-3,83 %) Cisco Systems - network infrastructure for automotive, cloud & edge

$AMT (+0,44 %) American Tower - cell towers & infrastructure, benefits from 5G expansion

$CCI (+0,21 %) Crown Castle - radio tower and fiber optic infrastructure (mainly USA)

$EQIX (-1,43 %) Equinix - data centers, basis for edge computing and OTA updates

$DLR (-3,41 %) Digital Realty - colocation & data center capacity for simulations and AV data

👉 Favorite: Equinix ($EQIX (-1,43 %)
)

Global leader in data center colocation, benefits from the edge computing trend. Strong moat due to network effects & high switching costs. Long-term compounder.

Takeaway:

Communication & infrastructure are the silent cornerstones of autonomous driving. Without low-latency networks, edge data centers and V2X communication, no AV can drive safely. While Qualcomm forms the technological bridge between chip and infrastructure, hidden champions such as Autotalks secure niche leadership. On the blade side, Equinix remains unbeatable, as every OEM & service provider needs computing power at the edge.

🤖 Software, platforms & algorithms

Big Player:

$GOOGL (-3,4 %) Alphabet / Waymo - Robotaxi pioneer, full-stack AV software, years of database

$TSLA (-6,86 %) Tesla - FSD, Dojo supercomputer, vertical integration incl. fleet

$9888 (-8,29 %) Baidu Apollo (HK) - largest robotaxi network in China, full-stack solution

$UBER (-3,78 %) Uber - AV platform in partnership (e.g. with Momenta), scaling via existing user base

👉 Favorite: Alphabet / Waymo ($GOOGL (-3,4 %)
)

Unbeatable moat due to millions of real driving kilometers + simulations, strong financial base via Alphabet, focus on platform scaling (robotaxi, licensing model). Compounder with global expansion potential.

Hidden champions:

$Momenta (private, China) - L4 software for OEMs, partner of Mercedes, Toyota

$AUR Aurora Innovation - software + sensor technology for truck autonomy, partner PACCAR, Volvo

$Argo AI (private, USA) - formerly Ford/VW, now partly continued through partner projects

$Oxbotica (private, UK) - modular AV software, focus on industrial & logistics applications

👉 Favorite: Aurora Innovation ($AUR
)

Clear focus on trucking (biggest lever in the AV market), long-term OEM partnerships, strong moat due to specialization in long-haul autonomy. Still young, but strong compounder potential.

Shovel manufacturer:

$PLTR (-7,09 %) Palantir - data management, simulation & AI analysis for AV training

$SNOW (-4,44 %) Snowflake - Cloud data platform, relevant for AV data streams

$MSFT (-3,3 %) Microsoft Azure - cloud & simulation platform for OEMs

$AMZN (-5,92 %) AWS - largest provider for AI training & simulations in the AV sector

$ADBE (-3,29 %) Adobe - Simulation & Digital Twin Tools (via partnerships)

👉 Favorite: Palantir ($PLTR (-7,09 %)
)

Deep integration in data pipelines, modular platform for simulation & decision logic. Moat due to lock-in effects with major customers, strong compounder with AI scaling.

Takeaway:

Software and algorithms are the real key to autonomous driving. Vehicles are becoming "data centers on wheels" and only the companies with data, simulation and AI stacks can dominate the market in the long term. Waymo provides the scalable robotaxi ecosystem, Aurora scores with its trucking focus, and Palantir ensures that data streams remain manageable. This is where the biggest margins are generated, not in the sale of hardware.

🚚 Logistics & transportation

Big player:

$AUR Aurora Innovation - focus on autonomous trucks, partnerships with Volvo & PACCAR

$TuSimple (private, USA) - pioneer for autonomous trucks, strong in the USA and China, currently undergoing restructuring

$AMZN (-5,92 %) Amazon / Zoox - Robotaxi & autonomous delivery services, integration into e-commerce and Prime

$FDX (-6,02 %) FedEx - test programs for autonomous delivery (cooperations with Aurora, Nuro, among others)

$DHL (-1,89 %) Deutsche Post DHL - pilot projects with autonomous delivery vehicles & drones

👉 Favorite: Amazon / Zoox ($AMZN (-5,92 %)
)

Moat through e-commerce ecosystem, integration of AV in the last mile, strong financial power and scalability. Compounder due to synergies between logistics and technology.

Hidden champions:

$Nuro (private, USA) - autonomous delivery vehicles specifically for the last mile

$Einride (private, Sweden) - electric autonomous trucks, focus on freight & sustainability

$Gatik (private, Canada/USA) - AV for medium distances (B2B supply chains, e.g. Walmart)

$Starship Technologies (private, Estonia/USA) - autonomous delivery robots for urban logistics

👉 Favorite: Gatik (private, Canada/USA)

Clear business model: "middle-mile" logistics, profitable niche market with predictable routes. Moat through early commercial contracts (Walmart). Compounder potential through scaling in the B2B sector.

Shovel manufacturer:

$CAT (-2,48 %) Caterpillar - autonomous technologies for construction machinery & mining, know-how transferable

$DE (-3,27 %) Deere & Co - autonomous agricultural machinery, similar technology stacks as for trucks

$ISRG (-4,16 %) Intuitive Surgical - example of high-end automation (here as a cross-reference for AV tech transfer)

$UPS (-3,46 %) United Parcel Service - logistics infrastructure, partner for AV integration

$R (-5,02 %) Ryder System - fleet management, leasing and AV test integration

👉 Favorite: Deere & Co ($DE (-3,27 %)
)

Autonomy already in use (precision farming), moat through data & technology in the agricultural sector. Compounder quality, as know-how in navigation & autonomy is transferable to transportation/logistics.

Takeaway:

Logistics is one of the first markets where autonomous driving brings real profitability. Trucks and delivery services benefit from 24/7 operation without drivers, while the last mile (Nuro, Gatik) opens up new business models. Amazon is the most powerful player through vertical integration, while hidden champions like Gatik occupy targeted profitable niche markets. Shovel manufacturers such as Deere supply the already proven autonomy stacks.

🏦 Insurance & finance

Major players:

$ALV (-0,68 %) Allianz - the world's largest insurer, involved in AV pilot projects at an early stage

$MUV2 (-0,74 %) Munich Re - reinsurance, develops models for AV risk transfer

$CS (-1,27 %) Axa - active in AV insurance testing & research

$BRK.B (-2,44 %) Berkshire Hathaway - large presence in the US motor insurance market via Geico

👉 Favorite: Munich Re ($MUV2 (-0,74 %)
)

Moat through global reinsurance strength, pioneer in new risk models for AVs. Compounder characteristics through diversification and ability to insure new markets (cyber, AV, climate) at an early stage.

Hidden champions:

$LMND (-10,89 %) Lemonade - digital insurance, AI-driven, quickly adaptable for AV policies

$Root Insurance (private/USA, formerly listed) - data-driven car insurance, use of driving data

$Next Insurance (private, USA) - platform approach, simple onboarding for new risks

$Wefox (private, Germany) - digital platform for insurance brokerage, flexible for new products

👉 Favorite: Lemonade ($LMND (-10,89 %)
)

Pure digital insurer with AI-driven underwriting. Moat through data and automation approach. Still small, but compounder potential as scalable platform can be used in new markets such as AV policies.

Shovel manufacturer:

$SREN (-0,95 %) Swiss Re - global reinsurer, benefits from increasing AV risk volume

$VRSK Verisk Analytics - data & risk analytics for insurers, AV risk models

$GWRE (+0,61 %) Guidewire Software - software solutions for insurance companies, customization for AV policies

$FICO (-2,99 %) Fair Isaac - Analytics & risk modeling, increasingly relevant for complex AV data

👉 Favorite: Verisk Analytics ($VRSK
)

Moat through exclusive data pools & analytics. Enabler for almost all insurers. Compounder character, as growing demand for data & models in new markets such as AVs.

Takeaway:

Autonomous driving shifts liability from the driver to the manufacturer or software provider. Insurers need to develop new products, reinsurers and data providers are becoming more important. Munich Re is protecting the industry, Lemonade is testing digital models and Verisk is providing the data intelligence without which no AV insurance can function. Investors will find silent but indispensable winners of the upheaval here.

🛡️ Security & Cybersecurity

Big players:

$PANW (-4,92 %) Palo Alto Networks - market leader in network security, focus on cloud & IoT, relevant for connected vehicles

$CRWD (-4,63 %) CrowdStrike ($CRWD) - endpoint security, strong platform for AV endpoints and fleets

$CHKP (-1,42 %) Check Point ($CHKP) - Security appliances & firewalls, focus on embedded & IoT

$CSCO (-3,83 %) Cisco Systems ($CSCO) - Network security + automotive infrastructure

👉 Favorite: Palo Alto Networks ($PANW (-4,92 %)
)

moat due to the width of the platform, which extends from the data center to the vehicle. With the $CYBR (-3,24 %) -integration, PANW has also covered the topic of identity security. Compounder properties through continuous expansion, high customer loyalty and a strong M&A strategy.

Hidden champions:

$CON (-1,18 %) Argus Cyber Security (private, subsidiary of Continental) - specialized in automotive cybersecurity

$Upstream Security (private, Israel) - cloud-based cyber platform specifically for connected vehicles

Karamba Security (private, Israel) - embedded security for control units (ECUs)

$4704 (-5,07 %) VicOne (subsidiary of Trend Micro) - AV-specific threat analysis

👉 Favorite: Argus Cyber Security (private, part of $CON (-1,18 %)
Continental)

Pioneer in the automotive segment, deep integration in OEMs. Moat through early partnerships and specialization in vehicle architectures.

Shovel manufacturer:

$AKAM (-3,46 %) Akamai - Content Delivery & Edge Security, relevant for OTA updates

$FTNT (-4,55 %) Fortinet - Network & IoT security, broad base

$ZS Zscaler - cloud-native security for data traffic between AV & cloud

$NET (-4,51 %) Cloudflare - infrastructure protection, DDoS protection for fleets & updates

$BB (-7,21 %) BlackBerry QNX - Operating system & security framework for automotive

👉 Favorite: BlackBerry ($BB (-7,21 %)
)

Moat by QNX, which is already running in millions of vehicles. Strong lock-in with OEMs. Compounder potential if QNX continues to scale as a security operating system for AV architectures.

Takeaway:

Cybersecurity is the nervous system of autonomous driving. Without secure communication, OTA updates and fleet protection, AV is inconceivable. Palo Alto Networks provides the necessary breadth and depth, Argus secures the vehicles themselves, and BlackBerry QNX provides the foundation in the control units. Investors are relying on the invisible gatekeepers of tomorrow's mobility.

⚡ Energy & infrastructure

Big player:

$EBK (+1,64 %) EnBW - operator of charging infrastructure in Germany, expansion of fast-charging parks

$SHEL (-3,05 %) Shell - massive entry into e-mobility & charging infrastructure, partnerships with OEMs

$BP (-2,69 %) BP - charging and energy infrastructure via bp pulse, global rollout

$TSLA (-6,86 %) Tesla ($TSLA) - Supercharger network as AV backbone, potential licensing model

👉 Favorite: Tesla ($TSLA (-6,86 %)
)

Moat due to world's largest fast charging network with high availability & own software integration. Compounder, as Supercharger can grow as a service independently of the OEM.

Hidden champions:

$Ionity (private, joint venture of BMW, Mercedes, Ford, VW, Hyundai) - Europe's premium charging network 👉 Access via OEMs such as BMW or Mercedes

$ALLG Allego - listed charging infrastructure operator, focus on Europe

$FAST (-2,75 %) Fastned (FAST.AS) - fast charging network in Europe, rapidly growing

$DCFC Tritium DCFC - manufacturer of fast charging stations, globally active

👉 Favorite: Fastned ($FAST (-2,75 %)
)

Clear business model as a pure fast-charging operator, strong moat through premium locations & brand perception. Compounder potential via expansion in Europe.

Shovel manufacturer:

$ABBN (-0,59 %) ABB - leader in charging hardware & power grid infrastructure

$ENR (-3,54 %) Siemens Energy - grid infrastructure & charging hardware, important supplier for energy transition + AV

$SU (-2,76 %) Schneider Electric - power distribution, smart grids for charging infrastructure

$6594 (-2,91 %) Nidec - motors & drives for e-mobility

$ETN (-2,61 %) Eaton - Energy management & charging infrastructure components

👉 Favorite: ABB ($ABBN (-0,59 %)
)

Broadly positioned from fast charging hardware to grid technology. Moat due to market leadership & long-standing customer base. Compounder, as electromobility + AV will bring growth for decades.

Takeaway:

Autonomous vehicles don't just need software, they need a reliable charging and energy base. Tesla is securing a massive advantage with its Supercharger network, while hidden champions such as Fastned are setting the pace in Europe. On the shovel side, ABB dominates with its global infrastructure expertise. Investors should not underestimate this sector, as no AV will drive without energy.

🏙️ Mobility services & platforms

Big players:

$UBER (-3,78 %) Uber Technologies - ride-hailing, partnerships with AV start-ups (Momenta), robotaxi plans in Munich

$LYFT (-3,74 %) Lyft - ride-hailing, own AV programs, cooperations with Aptiv & Motional

$DIDIY (-6,25 %) Didi Global - largest ride-hailing network in China, AV research on Didi Autonomous Driving

$9888 (-8,29 %) Baidu Apollo - robotaxi operator in China, leading with Apollo Go

$AMZN (-5,92 %) Amazon / Zoox - fully autonomous robotaxi, integration into Amazon ecosystem

👉 Favorite: Baidu Apollo ($9888 (-8,29 %)
HK, China, HKEX)

Moat through network effects in the world's largest mobility market. Apollo Go has already completed hundreds of thousands of robotaxi journeys. Compounder potential as China aggressively promotes AV.

Hidden champions:

$Momenta (private, China) - L4 autonomy software, partnerships with Mercedes & Toyota, based in Suzhou, China

👉 Access indirectly via investors such as $7203 (-2,77 %) Toyota or Mercedes $MBG (-1 %)

$Motional (joint venture Hyundai & Aptiv, private, USA/South Korea) - Robotaxi tests in the USA

👉 Access via $Hyundai or $APTV (-4,84 %) Aptiv

$WeRide (private, China) - Robotaxi & AV bus solutions, based in Guangzhou, China

👉 Investors: Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance

$Cruise (private, USA) - GM subsidiary for robotaxis, based in San Francisco

👉 Access via $GM (-1,22 %) General Motors

👉 Favorite: Motional (private, USA/South Korea)

Strong moat through OEM partnerships (Hyundai + Aptiv). Realistic scaling through series integration, compounder potential via global fleet integration.

Shovel manufacturer:

$HTZ (-2,24 %) Hertz Global - fleet management, integration of AVs in rental fleets

$SIX2 (-1,61 %) Sixt SE - Car sharing & fleet leasing, focus on Europe

$R (-5,02 %) Ryder System ($R, USA, NYSE) - fleet services & leasing, AV test integration

$GRAB (-5,45 %) Grab Holdings ($GRAB, Singapore, Nasdaq) - Southeast Asian ride-hailing market leader, entry into AV services

$Ola Cabs (private, India) - AV pilot projects in India

👉 Favorite: Sixt SE ($SIX2 (-1,61 %)
.DE, Germany, Xetra)

Moat due to premium positioning in Europe, flexible business model (rental, leasing, car sharing). Compounder, as Sixt invests early in fleet integration of AVs and benefits from growing Mobility-as-a-Service market.

Takeaway:

Mobility services are the interface to the end customer. This is where it will be decided whether AVs remain just technology or break through to the mass market. Baidu dominates in China, Motional scores with strong partners in the West, and Sixt provides the platform to bring scalable AVs into everyday life in Europe. Investors who get in early will secure access to the future platform monopolies of mobility.

🔋 Battery & drive

Big player:

$300750 CATL - world market leader for battery cells, supplies almost all major OEMs

$373220 LG Energy Solution - global player, supplier for Tesla, Hyundai, GM

$6752 (-3,59 %) Panasonic Holdings - long-standing partner of Tesla, strong in energy storage

$1211 (-4,45 %) BYD - integrates battery production and vehicles, pioneer in blade batteries

👉 Favorite: CATL ($300750
SZ, China, Shenzhen)

Moat due to technological leadership and economies of scale, supplies almost all global OEMs. Classic compounder, as batteries are at the heart of every AV fleet.

Hidden champions:

$Northvolt (private, Sweden) - European battery startup, sustainable production, supplies VW and BMW 👉 Access indirectly via VW ($VOW3 (-2,24 %) DE, Germany, Xetra) or BMW ($BMW (-2,64 %) DE, Germany, Xetra)

$SLDP Solid Power - specialist for solid-state batteries, partnerships with Ford and BMW

$ProLogium (private, Taiwan) - solid-state batteries, pilot projects with Mercedes👉 Access indirectly via Mercedes-Benz Group ($MBG (-1 %) DE, Germany, Xetra)

$QS QuantumScape ($QS, USA, NYSE) - solid-state batteries, strong focus on future technology

$MOD (-3,94 %) Modine Manufacturing (USA, NYSE) - Thermal management for batteries, e-motors and power electronics. Critical for range and safety.

$KULR (-6,68 %) Technology (USA, NYSE) - specializes in battery cooling, energy storage and recycling. Still small, but focus on safety makes it interesting in the AV context.

$ZIL2 (+5,96 %) ElringKlinger (DE, Germany, Xetra) - supplier of battery packs, housings, seals and fuel cell technology. Supports OEMs in electrification and alternative drive systems.

👉 Favorite: Solid Power ($SLDP
USA, Nasdaq)

Technology leader in solid-state batteries with strong OEM partnerships. Moat through patents and early market entries. Compounder potential through commercialization from 2027+.

Blade manufacturer:

$6594 (-2,91 %) Nidec (JP) - leader in electric motors for EVs and AVs

$IFX (-4,21 %) Infineon Technologies (DE) - semiconductors for power electronics and battery management

$300450 Wuxi Lead Intelligent (China, Shenzhen) - machines for battery production

$UMI (-3,88 %) Umicore (Belgium, Euronext) - cathode materials and recycling

$ALB (-7,74 %) Albemarle (USA, NYSE) - Lithium mining and processing

👉 Favorite: Infineon Technologies ($IFX (-4,21 %)
DE, Germany, Xetra)

Moat due to market leadership in power electronics, deeply integrated in battery and drive systems. Compounder potential due to growing demand for silicon carbide (SiC) chips for EV and AV applications.

Takeaway:

Battery and drive are the foundation of autonomy. Without powerful energy storage, reliable electric motors and robust power electronics, no autonomous vehicle can be operated economically. CATL dominates cell production, Solid Power is a promise of the future in solid state technology, and Infineon supplies the critical power electronics. Investors who neglect this sector are ignoring the heart of autonomous driving.

🗺️ Maps & Mapping

Big players:

$GOOGL (-3,4 %) Alphabet / Waymo (USA, Nasdaq) - HD maps for robotaxis, combined with AI-supported real-time navigation

$9888 (-8,29 %) Baidu Apollo (China, HKEX) - leader in AV mapping in China, integrated into Apollo Go

$HERE Technologies (private, based in NL/DE, owners: Audi, BMW, Mercedes and others) - global provider of HD maps, industry standard for many OEMs

$TOM2 (-3,77 %) TomTom (Netherlands, Euronext) - specialized in HD maps for AVs, partner of Volvo and Bosch

👉 Favorite: HERE Technologies (private, access via OEMs Audi, BMW, Mercedes)

Moat through global map databases, OEM consortium as backing. Compounder potential, as almost all autonomous vehicles rely on HD maps.

Hidden champions:

$002405 Navinfo Co. Ltd, (China, Shenzhen) - market leader for digital maps in China, partnerships with OEMs - unfortunately not tradable in the EU

$Civil Maps (private, USA) - specialized in AI-supported HD mapping for AVs

$DeepMap (private, USA, acquired by $NVDA (-6,14 %) Nvidia) - high-precision mapping, integration with Nvidia Drive

$Mapbox (private, USA) - cloud-based mapping platform, strong in the developer ecosystem

👉 Favorite: NavInfo ($002405
SZ, China, Shenzhen)

Dominance in the Chinese market, regulatory anchoring and partnerships with major OEMs. Moat through market access in China, compounder potential through data growth.

Shovel manufacturer:

$PL Planet Labs (USA, NYSE) - daily earth observation data, basis for dynamic mapping

$HEXA B (-3,76 %) Hexagon AB (Sweden, Nasdaq Stockholm) - measurement technology and geodata solutions

$TRMB (-4,92 %) Trimble (USA, Nasdaq) - positioning and geospatial data for AV and industrial applications

👉 Favorite: Hexagon AB ($HEXA B (-3,76 %)
Sweden, Nasdaq Stockholm)

Moat due to decades of experience in geodata and measurement technology, strong market position in industry and automotive. Compounder potential, as mapping and positioning are indispensable for all AV applications.

Takeaway:

High-precision maps are the nervous system of autonomous driving. Without continuously updated HD maps, vehicles cannot navigate safely. HERE secures a key role through OEM stakes, NavInfo dominates the Chinese market, and Hexagon provides the geospatial bucket technology. Investors should not overlook this sector, as mapping is the invisible foundation on which autonomy works.

Sources: own research, https://www.t-online.de/mobilitaet/aktuelles/id_100901210/iaa-mobility-muenchen-2025-alle-neuheiten-von-audi-bmw-vw-opel.html

Images: https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/mobilitaet-oel-energie/robotaxis-das-milliardenrennen-der-autonomen-autos-20381083.html

https://insideevs.de/features/763886/vorschau-iaa-2025-neuheiten-2026/

Here is a clear overview of the quarterly figures due next week.

$NXPI (-8,34 %)
$CLF (-8,05 %)
$LOGN (-7,22 %)
$KO (+0,18 %)
$GM (-1,22 %)
$LMT (-1,11 %)
$NOC (-2,31 %)
$PM (+2,02 %)
$RYTT34
$UPS (-3,46 %)
$V (-2,33 %)
$T (-1,52 %)
$FCX (-6,65 %)
$GD (-3,41 %)
$GOOGL (-3,4 %)
$IBM (-4,51 %)
$NOW (-3,24 %)
$TSLA (-6,86 %)
$DOW (-7,35 %)
$HON (-2,58 %)
$VLO (-1,75 %)
$BMY (-2,36 %)
$AON (-0,55 %)
$CL (-0,24 %)

Hello Getquins,

As always, I'm starting my summer a little early with a vacation. This time it's not Asia but surprisingly :-) the USA.

As it's my first vacation in this country (otherwise only on business) I'm taking advantage of other opportunities, not just the company and hotel.

$ROST (-3,91 %) The shares of the company are very strong here and were not known to me as a share, the turnover, profit and share price in the past are very lucrative.

My investment $PEP (+3,06 %) I hardly see here except for sweets like Lay Chips but $KO (+0,18 %) is the leading beverage here.

I have $TSLA (-6,86 %) and am surprised at the company empire, the South African is doing (almost) everything right. His company Space X (now also rockets), the Boring Company opposite and batteries under construction for houses, companies and cities are a large portfolio.

They build like mad here, whether streets $CAT (-2,48 %)

$DE (-3,27 %) or entire residential areas with several hundred houses.

The integration of South Americans has been properly implemented here, you can see them working in construction, with the cleaning crew or as handymen in the trades. Whether this will work in Europe with state support is questionable, but it's a different topic.

Almost 90% of people here have $AAPL (-4,63 %) iphone, $F (-1,41 %) pickups or $GM (-1,22 %) a few European ones can also be seen here $VOW (-1,77 %)
$BMW (-2,64 %)

The bar culture, restaurants and dinners are very popular.

$BOM

Of course there is a huge $WMT (-0,92 %) and next to it the $CVS (-0,22 %)

Best regards and hope you had Easter or soon Whitsun vacation.

So long

Smudo

Trump calls Fed chief a fool after decision + US auto industry criticizes Trump's deal with UK + Half of high-tech chips to come from US + Trade Desk beats expectations for first quarter

Trump calls Fed chief a fool after decision

• US President Donald Trump has called Fed Chairman Jerome Powell a fool following the Federal Reserve's decision to leave the key interest rate unchanged for the time being.
• "Jerome Powell is a fool who has no idea", Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
• He had already attacked Powell several times in the past, calling him a "loser" or "Mr. Too Late".
• The Fed had been on a collision course with Trump, who is vehemently calling for interest rate cuts, the day before.
• In view of Trump's aggressive tariff policy, it had opted for a wait-and-see approach and does not want to commit to cutting interest rates any time soon.
• "We have to wait and see how the situation develops," said Fed Chairman Powell when asked by a reporter whether the central bank should cut interest rates at all this year.
• The Fed left the key interest rate at a high level in the range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.

US car industry criticizes Trump's deal with the UK

• US President Donald Trump's trade pact with the UK has gone down badly with the US automotive industry.
• The reason for this is the reduction in import duties for 100,000 British cars from 25 to 10 percent.
• This would favor manufacturers from the UK over their own industry, criticized the industry association AAPC.
• It represents the big three US car manufacturers: Ford $F (-1,41 %) , General Motors $GM (-1,22 %)and the Stellantis Group $STLAM (-7,66 %)with brands such as Jeep and Dodge.
• Trump's government had imposed tariffs of 25 percent on imported vehicles and components.
• The US manufacturers produce some car models in Mexico and Canada and also source parts from there for production in the USA.
• A large proportion of these are initially exempt from the tariffs as long as the requirements of the USMCA free trade agreement are met.
• Association sees damage for US industry
• Over time, however, the foreign components of USMCA-compliant imported vehicles will also be subject to a 25 percent tariff.
• The trade pact will make it cheaper to bring a British car to the USA than a vehicle from Canada or Mexico, half of which consists of US parts, criticized the association.
• This would harm American manufacturers, suppliers and employees.
• Trump's Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick had argued that 100,000 vehicles only made up a small part of the US car market but were a relevant amount for British manufacturers such as Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Jaguar and Land Rover.

US Secretary of Commerce: Half of high-tech chips to come from the USA

• US President Donald Trump's administration has set a new ambitious target for the semiconductor market: 50 percent of modern high-tech chips are to be produced in the USA.
• This should give the country the "firepower" to develop artificial intelligence, said Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on US broadcaster CNBC.
• The majority of chips have been produced in Asia for decades.
• The most modern semiconductors for smartphones or AI data centers, for example, come from Taiwan from contract manufacturer TSMC $TSM (-6,55 %).
• There is great concern in the West that China could cut off supplies.
• Trump's predecessor Joe Biden therefore tried to bring more production to the USA.
• His government promised subsidies of around 39 billion dollars (35 billion euros) for this, and several plants are currently being built.
• Trump criticized the aid as a waste of money and wants to focus on tariffs instead.
• Restrictions on the export of US chips At the same time, Trump's government under Biden overturned export barriers for AI technology.
• Export restrictions were planned for many countries - to prevent chips and software from reaching countries such as China via detours.
• Lutnick criticized that this would have cut off allies such as Poland from modern US technology.
• The Trump administration has a different approach.
• According to this, chip deliveries should be permitted if they come to data centers of US operators, said Lutnick.
• As a second requirement, the data center would have to be connected to a cloud infrastructure "from someone we trust".

The Trade Desk $TTD (-5,03 %)exceeds expectations for the first quarter thanks to strong demand for advertising technology

• Trade Desk released first-quarter revenue and earnings figures on Thursday that beat analysts' expectations thanks to strong demand for automated ad-buying technology.
• The company's shares rose by 14% in after-hours trading.
• The advertising company's strong results come at a time when companies are reducing their marketing spending due to prevailing recession fears and the uncertain economic situation.
• The advertising platform offers advertisers access to an extensive network of publishers and media partners across a range of industries, enabling them to target their advertising campaigns with precision.
• The Trade Desk is expanding support for its advertising ID "Unified ID 2.0" (UID2), which it says is more privacy-focused and an improvement and alternative to third-party cookies.
• Revenue increased by 25% to USD 616 million in the first quarter, exceeding estimates of USD 584 million, according to data from LSEG.
• On an adjusted basis, the company posted earnings of 33 cents per share for the quarter, above estimates of 25 cents.
• Trade Desk, which has partnerships with retailers such as Walmart, is forecasting second-quarter sales of at least $682 million, slightly below analysts' average estimate of $683.2 million.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Allianz EUR 15.40
• MTU Aero Engines EUR 2.20
• Talanx EUR 2.70
• IBM USD 1.68
• Mensch und Maschine Software EUR 1.85
• Kuehne + Nagel International 8.25 CH
• Pfizer 0.43 USD
• Walmart 0.24 USD

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 16:00 Colgate-Palmolive | AbbVie AGM

• Quarterly figures / company dates Europe
• 07:00 Commerzbank | Krones Quarterly figures
• 07:30 Bechtle quarterly figures
• 08:00 PNE AG | International Consolidated Airlines Quarterly figures
• 09:00 Commerzbank Analyst Conference
• 10:00 Drägerwerk AGM | PNE AG Analyst and Press Conference
• 10:30 Commerzbank | Bechtle PK
• 11:00 Villeroy & Boch AGM
• 13:00 Krones Analyst Conference

• Economic data

04:00 CN: April trade balance PROGNOSE: +97.60bn USD previous: +102.64bn USD Exports PROGNOSE: +2.5% yoy previous: +12.4% yoy Imports PROGNOSE: -5.5% yoy previous: -4.3% yoy

12:45 IS: Fed Governor Barr and Fed Governor Kugler (14:30) and Fed Governor Waller (17:30) et al, Reykjavik Economic Conference

14:30 US: Fed Richmond President Barkin to participate in Loudon County Chamber of Commerce Fireside Chat

16:00 US: Fed-Chicago President Goolsbee, attends Fed list-serve event

17:30 US: Fed Richmond President Barkin, attends Greater Washington Board of Trade event

No time specified:

- DE: Start of the trade fair "Invest - the financial event for your future ", Stuttgart

- RU: China's President Xi, visit to Russia

- FR: France's President Macron and Poland's Prime Minister Tusk sign defense agreement

According to $JPM (-2,22 %) the neuen Zölle
$GM (-1,22 %) could cost up to 14 billion US dollars, which would eat up almost the entire forecast global EBIT of 12.5-14.5 billion US dollars for 2025. For $F (-1,41 %) is expected to have an impact of around USD 6 billion, which corresponds to approximately 75% of the estimated global EBIT of USD 7.75 billion for 2025.

$GM (-1,22 %) imports around USD 56 billion worth of vehicles annually from Mexico and Canada, resulting in estimated tariffs of around USD 10 billion on finished vehicles and an additional USD 4 billion on parts, totaling USD 14 billion.

The tariffs could increase vehicle prices by $3k to $12k, potentially reducing US sales by 500k units.

$JPM (-2,22 %) has lowered the price target for $GM (-1,22 %) from 64 US dollars to 53 US dollars and for $F (-1,41 %) from 13 US dollars to 11 US dollars

$BARC (-3,05 %) warns that the tariffs could make car manufacturers "structurally unprofitable" if they remain unchanged.

Walt Disney surprises positively thanks to streaming business + Siemens Healthineers increases profit + Trump's tariffs could cost US industry billions

Walt Disney $DIS (-2,19 %)surprises positively thanks to 'Moana 2' and streaming business

• Thanks to a strong streaming business and the success of the animated film "Moana 2", the US media company Walt Disney has exceeded market expectations at the start of its new financial year.
• Sales and profits were higher than expected, according to the figures presented by Disney in Burbank on Wednesday.
• In other business areas, however, including the TV business and the operation of the theme parks, things were less rosy.
• The stock market also criticized the fact that the forecast was not raised.
• The share price fell in pre-market US trading. In the first quarter to the end of December, Disney's turnover rose by 5 percent to 24.7 billion US dollars (23.9 billion euros) compared to the same period in the previous year.
• Adjusted operating profit rose by almost a third to 5.1 billion dollars.
• The profit attributable to shareholders climbed even more strongly to just under 2.6 billion dollars.
• The quarter was a strong start to the financial year, said Disney CEO Bob Iger according to the press release.
• He remains confident about the growth strategy.

Siemens Healthineers $SHL (-3,21 %)American demand and restructuring

• The medical technology group Siemens Healthineers has made a surprisingly good start to the new fiscal year.
• In the three months to the end of December, total sales climbed by almost six percent to just under 5.5 billion euros, as the Siemens subsidiary announced in Erlangen on Thursday.
• Excluding currency and portfolio effects, the increase amounted to 5.7 percent.
• Business in the Americas and in the Asia, Pacific, Japan region grew in particular.
• In China, however, revenue fell by a mid-single-digit percentage due to the ongoing delays in the awarding of orders.
• Adjusted for special effects, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased by eleven percent to 822 million euros, mainly due to cost savings in connection with restructuring in the Diagnostics division.
• Sales and operating profit thus exceeded analysts' expectations.
• The bottom line for Siemens Healthineers shareholders was a profit of 474 million euros after 431 million in the previous year.
• Group CEO Bernd Montag maintained the targets for the fiscal year.

Trump's tariffs could cost the US industry billions

• Ford$F (-1,41 %) -Ford CEO Jim Farley has warned the White House that long-term punitive tariffs of 25 percent on deliveries from Mexico and Canada would hit the US car industry hard.
• This would cost American manufacturers billions of dollars in profits and have serious consequences for jobs in the USA, Farley said after presenting quarterly figures.
• US car giants such as Ford and General Motors $GM (-1,22 %)had expanded production in neighboring countries in recent years.
• US President Donald Trump recently imposed additional tariffs of 25 percent on goods from Mexico and Canada - but then quickly postponed them for 30 days.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Ascencio SCA EUR 4.30

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 12:30 Honeywell quarterly figures
• 13:00 Philip Morris | Conocophillips Quarterly figures
• 22:00 Expedia Group quarterly figures
• 22:05 Amazon | Verisign quarterly figures
• No time specified: Yum! Brands | Hershey | Air Products and Chemicals | Eli Lilly | Bristol Myers Squibb | Intercontinental Exchange | KKR & Co | Sonos | Warner Music quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 06:30 Societe Generale annual results
• 07:00 Aurubis | Siemens Healthineers | Rational | Arcelormittal | ING Groep | Volvo Car Annual results
• 07:30 Hannover Re Renewals 2025 | Siemens Healthineers PK
• 08:00 Astrazeneca | A.P. Moeller-Maersk Annual Results
• 08:30 Siemens Healthineers Analyst Conference
• 09:00 Hannover Re PK
• 10:00 Qiagen annual results press conference
• 12:00 Linde quarterly figures
• 15:00 Kion Pre-Close-Call | Linde PK
• 16:00 Qiagen Analyst Conference
• 17:45 Vinci annual results
• 18:00 LOreal annual results

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: New orders December seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +2.0% yoy previous: -5.4% yoy
• 11:00 EU: December Eurozone Retail Sales PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.1% yoy
• 13:00 UK: BoE, outcome and minutes of the Monetary Policy Council meeting and Monetary Policy Report Bank Rate FORECAST: 4.50% previously: 4.75%
• 14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 214,000 previously: 207,000
• 14:30 US: Productivity ex Agriculture (1st release) 4Q annualized PROGNOSE: +1.4% yoy Q3: +2.2% yoy Unit labor costs PROGNOSE: +3.3% yoy Q3: +0.8% yoy
• 20:30 US: Fed Governor Waller, speech at the Atlantic Council at 'Navigating the Future of Payments' event

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

__________

In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (-4,63 %) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (-5,92 %) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-0,22 %) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (+0,32 %) D.R. Horton $DHI (-1,25 %) and Caterpillar $CAT (-2,48 %) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (-1,36 %) Boeing $BA (-3,43 %) and Qualcomm $QCOM (-8,32 %) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (-6,86 %) , Ford $F (-1,41 %) and General Motors $GM (-1,22 %) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (-3,79 %) , U.S. Steel $X and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (-6,65 %) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (-3,02 %) Moderna $MRNA (-4,23 %) and Eli Lilly $LLY (-3,36 %) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (-2,64 %) , Chevron$CVX (-2,7 %) and Expand Energy $CHK (-4,46 %) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (-5,15 %) and Texas Instruments$TXN (-4,45 %) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (-4,63 %) NVIDIA $NVDA (-6,14 %) , AMD $AMD (-10,01 %) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (-6,86 %) , Ford $F (-1,41 %) , General Motors $GM (-1,22 %) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (-3,43 %) and Caterpillar $CAT (-2,48 %) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-0,92 %) , Target $TGT (-4,66 %) and Nike $NKE (-4,98 %) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (-1,61 %) Duke Energy $DUK (+0,97 %) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (-5,78 %) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-0,5 %) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (-5,15 %) , Eli Lilly $LLY (-3,36 %) , Nucor $NUE (-3,79 %) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

__________

Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html