$9866 (-2,3 %)
$ZS (-0,82 %)
$M (-0,06 %)
$DLTR (-0,58 %)
$ASAN (+0,87 %)
$AEO (-1,02 %)
$AI (+5,01 %)
$GTLB (+1,78 %)
$CRM (+0,53 %)
$LULU (-1,78 %)
$DOCU (+2,25 %)
$PATH (+0,73 %)
$AVGO (-0,51 %)
$IOT
$FIG (+1,81 %)

After my first post on humanoid robots received a lot of positive feedback, I went into more detail. I have subsequently added my favorites in each sector.

Extended analysis of the value chain including shovel manufacturers and potential hidden champions

New categorySecondary key sectors (sales, marketing, financing)

In additionTop 25 companies worldwide, as well as Top 10 Europe and Top 10 Asia

I have also added a video link for beginners. This will give you an idea of how far the development of humanoid robotics has already progressed.

https://www.stern.de/panorama/wissen/humanoider-roboter---wie-reagiert-er-auf-beleidigungen--35996156.html

Thank you for your attention and your support 🙏

🌐 1. value chain of humanoid robots (with hidden champions)

1. research & chip design

$ARM (+0,31 %) ARM (UK) - CPU-IP, energy-efficient processors

$SNPS (-1,06 %) Synopsys (US) - EDA software, chip design

$CDNS (+0,05 %) Cadence (US) - EDA & Simulation

$PTC PTC (US) - Engineering Software, CAD/PLM

$DSY (-0,95 %) Dassault Systèmes (FR) - 3D Design & Digital Twin

$SIE (-0,19 %) Siemens (DE) - Industrial Software & Lifecycle Mgmt

$ADBE (-1,62 %) Adobe (US) - Design, AR/UX

ANSYS (US) - multiphysical simulation - acquisition by Synopsis

Altair (US) - CAE, simulation, digital twin - acquisition by Siemens

$HXGBY (+0,96 %)
Hexagon (SE) - Metrology & Simulation

$AWE (+0,11 %) Alphawave IP Group (UK) - High-speed chip IP for AI/robotics

1.Synopsis, 2.Siemens and 3.Adobe are my top 3 in this sector

2. manufacturing technology & equipment

$ASML (-0,29 %) ASML (NL) - Lithography (EUV)

$AMAT (+0,91 %) Applied Materials (US) - Semiconductor equipment

$8035 (+2,97 %) Tokyo Electron (JP) - wafer fabrication

$KEYS (-1,83 %) Keysight Technologies (US) - Metrology

$6857 (+4,42 %) Advantest (JP) - Chip test systems

$TER (+0,67 %) Teradyne (US) - test systems + cobots

$6954 (+3,57 %) Fanuc (JP) - Industrial robots, CNC

$CAT (+1,49 %) Caterpillar (US) - autonomous machines

$KU2G KUKA (DE) - industrial robots

Comau (IT) - automation - not listed on the stock exchange

$ROK Rockwell Automation (US) - industrial automation

$JBL (-6,48 %) Jabil (US) - contract manufacturing (EMS/ODM)

$KIT (-1,03 %) Kitron (NO) - European EMS/ODM manufacturer

$AIXA (-0,76 %) Aixtron (DE) - deposition equipment for compound semiconductors

$LRCX (+1,05 %)
Lam Research (US) - Etch/deposition systems

$MKSI (+0,75 %)
MKS Instruments (US) - Plasma/vacuum technology

$ASM (-0,44 %)
ASM International (NL) - Deposition systems

1.ASML, 2.Keysight Technologies, 3.Fanuc are my top 3 in this sector

3. chip manufacturing (foundries)

$TSM (+1,22 %) TSMC (TW) - leading foundry

$005930 Samsung Electronics (KR) - foundry + memory

$GFS (+1,32 %) GlobalFoundries (US) - specialty chips

$INTC (-1,64 %)
Intel Foundry Services (US) - new western foundry player

$981
SMIC (CN) - largest Chinese foundry

$UMC
UMC (TW) - Power/RF/Embedded chips

1.TSMC, 2.Intel, 3.Samsung Electronics are my top 3 in this sector

4. computing & control unit ("brain")

$NVDA (-0,8 %) Nvidia (US) - GPUs, AI chips

$INTC (-1,64 %) Intel (US) - CPUs, FPGAs

$AMD (-3,56 %) AMD (US) - CPUs, GPUs

$MRVL (-0,65 %) Marvell (US) - network chips

$MU (+2,16 %) Micron (US) - Memory

$DELL (-4,59 %) Dell Technologies (US) - Edge & Infrastructure

Graphcore (UK) - AI chips (IPU) - not a listed company

Cerebras (US) - Wafer-scale engine - not a listed company

SiPearl (FR) - European HPC chip - not a listed company

1.Nvidia, 2.Marvell, 3.Micron are my top 3 in this sector

5. sensors ("senses")

$6758 (+2,08 %) Sony (JP) - image sensors

$6861 (+1,69 %) Keyence (JP) - Industrial sensors

$STM (-1,21 %) STMicroelectronics (FR/IT) - Sensors, MCUs

$TDY Teledyne (US) - optical/infrared sensors

$CGNX (+1,23 %) Cognex (US) - Machine Vision

$HON (-1,64 %) Honeywell (US) - sensor technology, security

ANYbotics (CH) - autonomous sensor fusion - not a listed company

$AMBA (-2,11 %) Ambarella (US) - video & computer vision SoCs for real-time image recognition

$OUST
Velodyne Lidar (US) - Lidar sensors - acquisition by Ouster

$AMS (+1,15 %)
-OSRAM (AT/DE) - optical sensors

1.Teledyne, 2.Keyence, 3.Ouster are my top 3 in this sector

6. actuators & power electronics ("muscles")

$IFX (-0,83 %) Infineon (DE) - Power Electronics

$ON (+0,85 %) onsemi (US) - Power & Sensors

$TXN (-0,99 %) Texas Instruments (US) - Mixed-Signal Chips

$ADI (-0,11 %) Analog Devices (US) - Signal Processing

$PH Parker-Hannifin (US) - Hydraulics/Pneumatics

$MP (+1,32 %) MP Materials (US) - Magnets

$APH (-0,79 %) Amphenol (US) - Connectors

$6481 (+0 %) THK (JP) - Linear guides & actuators

$6324 (+3,96 %)
Harmonic Drive (JP) - Precision gears & servo drives for robotics

$6594 (+0,32 %)
Nidec (JP) - Electric motors

$6506 (+10,65 %)
Yaskawa (JP) - Drives & Robotics

$SU (-0,22 %)
Schneider Electric (FR) - Energy & control solutions

$ZIL2 (+0,17 %)
ElringKlinger (DE) - Battery & fuel cell technology, lightweight construction

1.Parker-Hannifin, 2.MP Materials, 3.Infinion are my top 3 in this sector

7. communication & networking ("nerves")

$QCOM (-0,19 %) Qualcomm (US) - mobile communications, edge AI

$ANET (+0,95 %) Arista Networks (US) - Networks

$CSCO (-0,67 %) Cisco (US) - Networks, Security

$EQIX (+1,24 %) Equinix (US) - Data centers

NTT Docomo (JP) - 5G/6G carrier - not a listed company

$VZ Verizon (US) - Telecommunications

$SFTBY SoftBank (JP) - Carrier + Robotics

$ERIC B (-0,1 %)
Ericsson (SE) - 5G/IoT infrastructure

$NOKIA (+0,84 %)
Nokia (FI) - 5G/6G for industry

$HPE (-0,72 %)
Juniper Networks (US) - Network technology - acquisition by HP

1.Arista Networks, 2.SoftBank, 3.Cisco are my top 3 in this sector

8. energy supply

$3750 (-0,74 %) CATL (CN) - Batteries

$6752 (+6,41 %) Panasonic (JP) - Batteries

$373220 LG Energy (KR) - Batteries

$ALB (-0,03 %) Albemarle (US) - Lithium

$LYC (+6,67 %) Lynas (AU) - Rare earths

$UMICY (-2,15 %) Umicore (BE) - Recycling

WiTricity (US) - inductive charging - not a listed company

$ABBN (+0,42 %) Charging (CH) - charging infrastructure

$SLDP
Solid Power (US) - Solid-state batteries

Northvolt (SE) - European batteries - not a listed company

$PLUG
Plug Power (US) - fuel cells

$KULR (+14 %)
KULR Technology (US) - Thermal management & battery safety for mobile systems

1.Albemarle, 2.CATL, 3.Panasonic are my top 3 in this sector

9. cloud & infrastructure

$AMZN (-1,27 %) Amazon AWS (US) - Cloud, AI

$MSFT (-0,15 %) Microsoft Azure (US) - Cloud, AI

$GOOG (-0,5 %) Alphabet Google Cloud (US) - Cloud, ML

$VRT
Vertiv Holdings (US) - Data center infrastructure (UPS, cooling, edge)

$ORCL (-1,41 %)
Oracle Cloud (US) - ERP + Cloud

$IBM (+0,31 %)
IBM Cloud (US) - Hybrid cloud + AI

$OVH (+0,78 %)
OVHcloud (FR) - European cloud

1.Alphabet, 2.Microsoft, 3.Oracle are my top 3 in this sector

10. software & data platforms

$PLTR (-6,93 %) Palantir (US) - Data integration

$DDOG (+0,18 %) Datadog (US) - Monitoring

$SNOW (-2,39 %) Snowflake (US) - Data Cloud

$ORCL (-1,41 %) Oracle (US) - Databases, ERP

$SAP (-0,74 %) SAP (DE) - ERP systems

$SPGI S&P Global (US) - financial/market data

ROS2 Foundation - robotics middleware - not listed on the stock exchange

$NVDA (-0,8 %) NVIDIA Isaac (US) - robotics development - part of Nvidia

$INOD (-2,07 %) Innodata (US) - data annotation & AI training data

$PATH (+0,73 %)
UiPath (RO/US) - Robotic process automation

$AI (+5,01 %)
C3.ai (US) - AI platform

$ESTC (-2,77 %)
(NL/US) - Search & data analysis

1.S&P Global, 2.Palantir, 3.Datadog are my top 3 in this sector

11. end applications / robots

$ABBN (+0,42 %) ABB (CH/SE) - Industrial Robots

$6954 (+3,57 %) Fanuc (JP) - Industrial robots

$TSLA (-2,01 %) Tesla Optimus (US) - humanoid robot

$9618 (-0,27 %) JD.com (CN) - logistics robot

$AAPL (-0,07 %) Apple (US) - Platform & UX

$700 (-0,01 %) Tencent (CN) - Platform & AI

$9988 (-0,91 %) Alibaba (CN) - logistics & platform

PAL Robotics (ES) - humanoid robots - not a listed company

Neura Robotics (DE) - cognitive humanoid robots - not a listed company

$TER (+0,67 %) Universal Robots (DK) - cobots - belongs to the Teradyne Corporation

Engineered Arts (UK) - humanoid robots - not a listed company

$ISRG (+2,4 %) Intuitive Surgical (US) - surgical robotics

$GMED (+3,33 %)
Globus Medical (US) - surgical robotics (ExcelsiusGPS platform)

$7012 (-4,69 %) Kawasaki Heavy Industries (JP) - industrial robots, automation

$CPNG (-0,82 %) Coupang (KR) - Logistics end user

$IRBT (+5,85 %)
iRobot (US) - consumer robotics (e.g. Roomba), non-humanoid, but navigation/sensor fusion

Boston Dynamics (US) - humanoid & mobile robots-no listed company

Hanson Robotics (HK) - humanoid robots (Sophia) - not a listed company

Agility Robotics (US) - humanoid robot "Digit" - not a listed company

1.Apple, 2.Tencent, 3.Alibaba are my top 3 in this sector

🛠 2. cross enablers (shovel manufacturers) - with hidden champions

Raw materials & battery materials

Albemarle - Lynas - Umicore

$SQM
SQM (CL) - Lithium

$ILU (+6,24 %)
Iluka Resources (AU) - Rare earths

$ARR (+0 %)
American Rare Earths (US/AU) - New supply chains

my number 1 in the sector is Albemarle

manufacturing technology

ASML - Applied Materials - Tokyo Electron

$LRCX (+1,05 %)
Lam Research (US) - Plasma/etching processes

$ASM (-0,44 %)
ASM International (NL) - ALD equipment

$MKSI (+0,75 %)
MKS Instruments (US) - Plasma/vacuum technology

my number 1 in the sector is ASML

Quality assurance

Keysight - Advantest - Teradyne

$EMR (+1,09 %)
National Instruments (US) - Measurement technology - from Emerson Electric adopted

$300567
ATE Test Systems (CN) - test systems

$FORM (+0,6 %)
FormFactor (US) - Wafer probing

my number 1 in the sector is Keysight

Motion & Drive

Parker-Hannifin

Festo (DE) - Pneumatics, Soft Robotics - not a listed company

Bosch Rexroth (DE) - Drives, Controls - not a listed company

$6481 (+0 %)
THK (JP) - Linear guides

my number 1 in the sector is Parker-Hannifin

Sensors/Imaging

$TDY Teledyne

$BSL (-5,3 %) Basler (DE) - Industrial cameras

FLIR (US) - Thermal imaging sensors - acquisition by Teledyne

ISRA Vision (DE) - Machine Vision - not a listed company

my number 1 in the sector is Teledyne

Magnets & Materials

MP Materials

$6501 (+6,03 %)
Hitachi Metals (JP) - Magnetic materials

VacuumSchmelze (DE) - Magnetic materials - not a listed company

$4063 (+3,22 %)
Shin-Etsu Chemical (JP) - Specialty materials

my number 1 in the sector is MP Materials

Chip Design & Simulation

Synopsys - Cadence - ARM

$SIE (-0,19 %)
Siemens EDA (DE/US)-Mentor Graphics-strategic business unit of Siemens AG

Imagination Tech (UK) - GPU-IP - not a listed company

$CEVA (-0,42 %)
CEVA (IL) - Signal Processor IP

my number 1 in the sector is Synopsys

Engineering & Lifecycle

PTC - Dassault - Siemens

Altair (US) - Simulation - no longer a listed company

$HXGBY (+0,96 %)
Hexagon (SE) - Metrology

$SNPS (-1,06 %)
ANSYS (US) - Simulation - takeover by Synopsys

my number 1 in the sector is Siemens

Networks & Data Centers

Arista - Cisco - Equinix

$HPE (-0,72 %)
Juniper (US) - Networks - Acquisition of HPE

$DTE (-0,22 %)
T-Systems (DE) - Industry cloud

$OVH (+0,78 %)
OVHcloud (FR) - European cloud

my number 1 in the sector is Arista

Cloud infrastructure

AWS - Azure - Google Cloud

$ORCL (-1,41 %)
Oracle Cloud (US) - ERP & databases

$IBM (+0,31 %)
IBM Cloud (US) - Hybrid Cloud

$9988 (-0,91 %)
Alibaba Cloud (CN) - Asian Cloud

$VRT
Vertiv Holdings (US) - Cloud/Infra

my number 1 in the sector is Alphabet (Google)

finance/information infra

S&P Global

$MCO (+0,36 %)
Moody's (US) - Ratings

$MSCI (-0,34 %)
MSCI (US) - Indices

$MORN
Morningstar (US) - Investment Research

my number 1 in the sector is S&P Global

Creative/Experience Infra

Adobe

$ADSK (-0,84 %)
Autodesk (US) - CAD & Design

$U
Unity (US) - 3D/AR simulation

Epic Games (US) - Unreal Engine - not a listed company

my number 1 in the sector is Adobe

Platform & Ecosystem

Apple - Tencent - Alibaba

$META (-2,33 %)
Meta (US) - AR/VR, Social Robotics

ByteDance (CN) - AI & platforms - not a listed company

$9888 (+0,77 %)
Baidu (CN) - AI & Cloud

my number 1 in the sector is Tencent

Infrastructure/Edge

Dell

$HPE (-0,72 %)
HPE (US) - Edge Computing

$SMCI
Supermicro (US) - AI servers

$6702 (+4,49 %)
Fujitsu (JP) - Edge & HPC

my number 1 in the sector is Dell

storage solutions

Micron

$HY9H
SK Hynix (KR) - Memory

$285A (+11,59 %)
Kioxia (JP) - NAND

$WDC
Western Digital (US) - Storage solutions

my number 1 in the sector is Micron

🏛 3. secondary key sectors with hidden champions

Financing & Capital

$GS (+0,94 %) Goldman Sachs (US) - investment bank; ECM/DCM, M&A, growth financing

$MS Morgan Stanley (US) - investment bank; tech banking, capital markets

$BLK (+0,33 %) BlackRock (US) - asset manager; capital allocation, ETFs/index funds

$9984 (+2,83 %) SoftBank Vision Fund (JP) - mega VC; growth equity in robotics/AI

Sequoia Capital (US) - venture capital; early/growth in AI/robotics - this is a classic venture capital fund

DARPA (US) - government R&D funding (robotics/defense) - independent research and development agency

EU Horizon (EU) - research funding/grants for DeepTech - Innovative Europe pillar

China State Funds (CN) - state industry/technology fund

Lux Capital (US) - VC for DeepTech - Uptake (US) - AI-based predictive maintenance

DCVC (US) - Robotics & AI focus - investing exclusively via VC fund investments

Speedinvest (AT) - EU VC for robotics - access to investment only via fund investments

my number 1 in the sector is Softbank

Maintenance & Service

$SIE (-0,19 %) Siemens (DE) - Industrial Service, Lifecycle & Retrofit

$ABBN (+0,42 %) ABB (CH/SE) - Robotics Service, Spare Parts, Field Support

$GEHC (-1,1 %) GE Healthcare (US) - Medtech service incl. robotic systems

Uptake (US) - AI-based predictive maintenance - not a listed company

Augury (US/IL) - condition monitoring, condition diagnostics - not a listed company

$KU2 KUKA Service (DE) - Robotics maintenance

$6954 (+3,57 %) Fanuc Service (JP) - global service network

Boston Dynamics AI Institute (US) - Robotics longevity - funded by Hyundai Motor Group

my number 1 in the sector is Siemens

Marketing & Advertising

$WPP (+1,92 %) WPP (UK) - global advertising group; branding/communications

$OMC Omnicom (US) - marketing/PR network

$PUB (+0,62 %) Publicis (FR) - communications/advertising group

$META (-2,33 %) Meta (US) - Digital Ads (Facebook/Instagram)

$GOOG (-0,5 %) Google Ads (US) - search & display advertising

TikTok / ByteDance (CN) - social ads & distribution - not a listed company

$AAPL (-0,07 %) Apple (US) - Branding/UX; Acceptance & Platform Marketing

$WPP (+1,92 %)
AKQA (UK/US) - Tech branding - Since 2012 majority owned by the WPP Groupbut continues to operate as an autonomous operating unit

R/GA (US) - Innovation marketing - not a listed company

Serviceplan (DE) - largest independent EU agency - not a listed company

my number 1 in the sector is Meta

Law, Regulation & Ethics

ISO (CH) - international standards, robotics standards

TÜV (DE) - certification & safety tests

UL (US) - safety/conformity testing

EU AI Act (EU) - legal framework for AI & robotics

UNESCO AI Ethics (UN) - global ethics guidelines

Fraunhofer IPA (DE) - Robotics safety standards

ANSI (US) - standards

IEC (CH) - Electrical engineering standards

Training & Talent

MIT (US) - Robotics/AI Research & Education

ETH Zurich (CH) - autonomous systems & robotics

Stanford (US) - AI/Robotics labs & spin-offs

Tsinghua University (CN) - Robotics/AI in Asia

CMU (US) - Robotics Institute

EPFL (CH) - Robotics research

TU Munich (DE) - humanoid robot "Roboy"

🌍 Top 25 companies for humanoid robotics

These companies are central to the development & production of humanoid robotsbecause without them, crucial parts of the chain would be missing:

Chips & computing power (brain of the robots)

$NVDA (-0,8 %) Nvidia (US) - AI GPUs & Isaac platform, foundation for robotic AI

$2330 TSMC (TW) - world's most important foundry, produces the AI chips

$ASML (-0,29 %) ASML (NL) - EUV lithography, indispensable for chip production

$005930 Samsung Electronics (KR) - memory, logic, foundry

$HY9H SK Hynix (KR) - DRAM & NAND memory for AI

$MU (+2,16 %) Micron (US) - Memory solutions for AI workloads

my number 1 in the sector is ASML

Sensors & perception (senses of robots)

$SONY Sony (JP) - image sensors, market leader

$6861 (+1,69 %) Keyence (JP) - Industrial sensors & vision systems

$CGNX (+1,23 %) Cognex (US) - Machine Vision, precise image processing

my number 1 in the sector is Keyence

Actuators & motion (muscles of robots)

$IFX (-0,83 %) Infineon (DE) - power electronics, motor control

$6594 (+0,32 %) Nidec (JP) - World market leader for electric motors

$PH Parker-Hannifin (US) - hydraulics/pneumatics, motion technology

$6481 (+0 %) THK (JP) - Linear guides & actuators

my number 1 in the sector is Parker-Hannifin

Communication, cloud & infrastructure (nerves & data flow)

$QCOM (-0,19 %) Qualcomm (US) - Mobile & Edge Chips

$AMZN (-1,27 %) Amazon AWS (US) - Cloud & AI infrastructure

$MSFT (-0,15 %) Microsoft Azure (US) - Cloud, AI services

$CSCO (-0,67 %) Cisco (US) - Networks & Security

$VRT Vertiv Holdings (US) - Data Center Infrastructure

my number 1 in the sector is Microsoft

End Applications & Platforms (robots themselves)

$TSLA (-2,01 %) Tesla (US) - humanoid robot Optimus

$ABBN (+0,42 %) ABB (CH/SE) - Robotics & Automation

$6954 (+3,57 %) Fanuc (JP) - industrial robots & CNC systems

$7012 (-4,69 %) Kawasaki Heavy Industries (JP) - industrial robots

PAL Robotics (ES) - humanoid robots (TALOS, ARI, TIAGo) - not a listed company

Neura Robotics (DE) - cognitive humanoid robots - not a listed company

Universal Robots (DK) - cobots

my number 1 in the sector is Tesla

🇪🇺 Top 10 European key companies for humanoid robotics

$ASML (-0,29 %)
ASML (NL)

World market leader in EUV lithography - no modern chips for AI & robotics without ASML.

$IFX (-0,83 %) Infineon (DE)

Leading in power electronics & motor control - crucial for actuators of humanoid robots.

$STM (-1,21 %)
STMicroelectronics (FR/IT)

Sensors, microcontrollers & power chips - the basis for control & perception.

$SAP (-0,74 %)
SAP (DE)

ERP & data platforms, important for integrating humanoid robots into industrial processes.

$SIE (-0,19 %)
Siemens (DE)

Industrial software, automation, digital twin - key for engineering & lifecycle management.

$KU2 KUKA (EN)

Robotics pioneer, industrial robots & automation - know-how for humanoid motion mechanics.

PAL Robotics (ES) - not a listed company

Specialist for humanoid robots (TALOS, ARI, TIAGo), internationally used in research & service.

Neura Robotics (DE) - Not a listed company

Young high-tech company, develops cognitive humanoid robots with advanced AI (4NE-1).

Universal Robots (DK) - Not a listed company

Market leader for cobots - platform for safe human-robot collaboration.

Engineered Arts (UK) - not a listed company

Develops humanoid robots such as Amecaknown for realistic facial expressions & gestures - important for HRI (Human-Robot Interaction)

🌏 Top 10 Asian key companies for humanoid robotics

$2330
TSMC (Taiwan)

World's largest semiconductor foundry, produces high-end chips (e.g. Nvidia, AMD, Apple) - no AI hardware without TSMC.

$005930
Samsung Electronics (South Korea)

Foundry, memory, logic chips, image sensors - extremely broadly positioned in robotics components.

$HY9H
SK Hynix (KR) - Memory

$SONY
Sony (Japan)

Market leader in CMOS image sensors, essential for robotic vision & perception.

$6861 (+1,69 %)
Keyence (Japan)

Sensor technology & machine vision for industrial automation, widely used in robotics.

$6954 (+3,57 %)
Fanuc (Japan)

Industrial robots & CNC systems, one of the most important manufacturers of robotics hardware worldwide.

$6506 (+10,65 %)
Yaskawa Electric (Japan)

Drives, motion control & robot arms - relevant for humanoid motion control.

$6594 (+0,32 %)
Nidec (Japan)

World market leader for electric motors (from mini motors to high-performance drives).

$7012 (-4,69 %)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (JP) - Industrial robots

$9618 (-0,27 %)
JD.com (China)

Driver for robotics in e-commerce & logistics, invests in humanoid robotics applications

The possibility that we are currently in an AI bubble is real. As with previous hypes, the valuation of AI companies seems to be ahead of their actual profitability. Moreover, the S&P 500 is heavily overconcentrated in a handful of large tech players that are benefiting from the AI hype. Should these fall, the entire index will be pulled down with them.

That risk is compounded by the fact that the S&P has become historically expensive, with P/E ratios well above average. The risks are clear: if promised growth fails to materialize, valuations could collapse hard. The situation is reminiscent of the dot.com bubble of the early 2000s, but with an important difference: now, a lot of credit is being borrowed to finance AI growth. That makes a blow more dangerous, because debt puts extra pressure in a downturn.

Conclusion: AI could change the world permanently, but current valuations seem fragile. A bubble need not mean AI disappears, it does mean investors should prepare for sharp corrections.

$NVDA (-0,8 %)
$MSFT (-0,15 %)
$AMZN (-1,27 %)
$GOOGL (-0,67 %)
$META (-2,33 %)
$AVGO (-0,51 %)
$TSM (+1,22 %)
$ORCL (-1,41 %)
$PLTR (-6,93 %)
$ADBE (-1,62 %)
$AMD (-3,56 %)
$AAPL (-0,07 %)
$IBM (+0,31 %)
$QCOM (-0,19 %)
$MU (+2,16 %)
$SNOW (-2,39 %)
$CRM (+0,53 %)
$MDB (-1,92 %)
$AI (+5,01 %)
$VOO (+0,04 %)

The hype is all about humanoid robots, but the constant winners are in the background.

I have divided the analysis into two perspectives. 1. the complete value chain of humanoid robots, which shows all the players from the chip to the finished robot, and 2. the blade manufacturers in the background, who always earn money as enablers, regardless of which manufacturer wins the race.

ASML, Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron dominate in manufacturing technology. Quality assurance comes from Keysight, Advantest and Teradyne. Chip design is supported by Synopsys, Cadence and ARM. Data streams are secured by Arista Networks, Cisco and Equinix. The computing basis is created in the cloud by Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet. Albemarle, Lynas and Umicore play a central role in raw materials and battery materials. These companies monetize their customers' investment waves, have high barriers to entry, service revenues and pricing power, but remain cyclical with risks from export rules, capex cuts and currency movements.

🌐 Value chain of humanoid robots Sector overview

1. research & chip design (IP / EDA)

$ARM (+0,31 %)
ARM Holdings (ARM, UK/USA) - CPU architectures

$SNPS (-1,06 %)
Synopsys (SNPS, USA) - Chip design software

$CDNS (+0,05 %)
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, USA) - EDA & Simulation

2. manufacturing technology & equipment

$ASML (-0,29 %)
ASML (ASML, NL) - EUV lithography, key monopoly

$AMAT (+0,91 %)
Applied Materials (AMAT, USA) - Process equipment

$8035 (+2,97 %)
Tokyo Electron (8035.T, JP) - Wafer equipment

$KEYS (-1,83 %)
Keysight Technologies (KEYS, USA) - Test & RF measurement technology

$6857 (+4,42 %)
Advantest (6857.T, JP) - Semiconductor test systems

$TER (+0,67 %)
Teradyne (TER, USA) - Test systems + robotics (Universal Robots)

3. chip production (Foundries)

$TSM (+1,22 %)
TSMC (TSM, TW) - Largest contract manufacturer

$005930
Samsung Electronics (005930.KQ, KR) - Memory + Foundry

$GFS (+1,32 %)
GlobalFoundries (GFS, USA) - Specialized production

4. computing & control unit ("brain")

$NVDA (-0,8 %)
Nvidia (NVDA, USA) - GPUs, AI accelerators

$INTC (-1,64 %)
Intel (INTC, USA) - CPUs, FPGAs

$AMD (-3,56 %)
AMD (AMD, USA) - CPUs/GPUs

$MRVL (-0,65 %)
Marvell Technology (MRVL, USA) - Network/data center chips

5. sensors ("senses")

$6758 (+2,08 %)
Sony (6758.T, JP) - CMOS image sensors

$6861 (+1,69 %)
Keyence (6861.T, JP) - Vision systems, sensors

$STM (-1,21 %)
STMicroelectronics (STM, CH/FR) - MEMS sensors

6. actuators & power electronics ("muscles")

$IFX (-0,83 %)
Infineon (IFX, DE) - Power semiconductors, SiC

$ON (+0,85 %)
N Semiconductor (ON, USA) - SiC/Power Chips

$STM (-1,21 %)
STMicroelectronics (STM, CH/FR) - Motor control & power

$TXN (-0,99 %)
Texas Instruments (TXN, USA) - Motor control, power ICs

$ADI (-0,11 %)
Analog Devices (ADI, USA) - Energy & BMS chips

7. communication & networking ("nerves")

$QCOM (-0,19 %)
Qualcomm (QCOM, USA) - 5G/SoCs

$AVGO (-0,51 %)
Broadcom (AVGO, USA) - Network & radio chips

$SWKS (-0,56 %)
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, USA) - RF components

8. energy supply

$300750
CATL (300750.SZ, CN) - Batteries

$6752 (+6,41 %)
Panasonic (6752.T, JP) - Batteries for automotive/robotics

$373220
LG Energy Solution (373220.KQ, KR) - Batteries

9. cloud & infrastructure

$AMZN (-1,27 %)
Amazon (AMZN, USA) - AWS

$MSFT (-0,15 %)
Microsoft (MSFT, USA) - Azure

$GOOG (-0,5 %)
Alphabet (GOOGL, USA) - Google Cloud

$EQIX (+1,24 %)
Equinix (EQIX, USA) - Data center operator

$ANET (+0,95 %)
Arista Networks (ANET, USA) - Network infrastructure

$CSCO (-0,67 %)
Cisco Systems (CSCO, USA) - Edge & Data Center Networks

10. software & data platforms

$PLTR (-6,93 %)
Palantir (PLTR, USA) - Data integration, decision software

$DDOG (+0,18 %)
Datadog (DDOG, USA) - Cloud monitoring / observability

$SNOW (-2,39 %)
Snowflake (SNOW, USA) - Cloud-native data platform

$ORCL (-1,41 %)
Oracle (ORCL, USA) - Databases, ERP

$SAP (-0,74 %)
SAP (SAP, DE) - ERP/cloud systems

$PATH (+0,73 %)
UiPath (PATH, USA) - Automation software (RPA)

$AI (+5,01 %)
C3.ai (AI, USA) - Enterprise AI platform

11. end applications / robots

$ABB
ABB (ABB, CH) - Industrial robots

$6954 (+3,57 %)
Fanuc (6954.T, JP) - Industrial robots, CNC

$TSLA (-2,01 %)
Tesla (TSLA, USA) - Optimus" humanoid robot

$9618 (-0,27 %)
JD.com (JD, CN) - E-commerce & automated logistics

🛠️ Shovel manufacturer for humanoid robots

🔹 Hardtech (physical "shovels")

These companies provide the material basis: manufacturing machines, raw materials, semiconductor base.

Semiconductor Equipment & Manufacturing

$ASML (-0,29 %)
ASML (ASML, NL) - EUV lithography (monopoly).

$AMAT (+0,91 %)
Applied Materials (AMAT, USA) - Wafer equipment.

$8035 (+2,97 %)
Tokyo Electron (8035.T, JP) - Process equipment.

Test systems (hardware-side)

$6857 (+4,42 %)
Advantest (6857.T, JP) - Semiconductor test.

$TER (+0,67 %)
Teradyne (TER, USA) - Test systems + industrial robots.

Materials & raw materials

$ALB (-0,03 %)
Albemarle (ALB, USA) - Lithium (batteries).

$LYC (+6,67 %)
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX, AUS) - Rare earths for magnets.

$UMICY (-2,15 %)
Umicore (UMI.BR, BE) - Cathode materials, recycling.

🔹 Soft/infra (digital "shovels")

These companies supply the infrastructure & toolswithout which development, training and operation would be impossible.

Design Software & IP

$SNPS (-1,06 %)
Synopsys (SNPS, USA) - EDA software.

$CDNS (+0,05 %)
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS, USA) - Chip design & simulation.

$ARM (+0,31 %)
ARM Holdings (ARM, UK/USA) - CPU architectures (license model).

Test & Measurement (software/signal level)

$KEYS (-1,83 %)
Keysight Technologies (KEYS, USA) - Electronics & RF test systems.

Network & data center backbone

$ANET (+0,95 %)
Arista Networks (ANET, USA) - High-speed networks.

$CSCO (-0,67 %)
Cisco Systems (CSCO, USA) - Data center/edge networks.

$EQIX (+1,24 %)
Equinix (EQIX, USA) - Data centers (colocation).

Cloud infrastructure

$AMZN (-1,27 %)
Amazon (AMZN, USA) - AWS (cloud, AI training).

$MSFT (-0,15 %)
Microsoft (MSFT, USA) - Azure.

$GOOG (-0,5 %)
Alphabet (GOOGL, USA) - Google Cloud.

Takeaway: Investing in the infrastructure stack allows you to participate in the robotics trend regardless of the subsequent product winner and reduces the individual product risk, but you have to live with cycles. In your opinion, which stage of the chain offers the best risk/return combination and fits into a disciplined portfolio?

Source: Own analysis based on publicly available company information and IR materials of the companies mentioned.

Image material: Techa Tungateja/iStockphoto

The current earnings wave shows impressively how differently AI and tech stocks are performing: $BBAI (-2,91 %) BigBear.ai collapses by almost 30% after disappointing figures and it is by no means a new $PLTR (-6,93 %) Palantir. Investors should avoid the stock and focus on profitable growth stocks. $FTNT (-0,38 %) Although Fortinet exceeded expectations, its weak outlook in the firewall segment is causing uncertainty. $TTD (+0,74 %) Trade Desk and $AI (+5,01 %) C3.ai are unable to translate their technical expertise into sustained market confidence, while $DUOL Duolingo increases sales and profits significantly thanks to efficient AI integration. Palantir maintains its role as a defensive AI play with strong roots in the government sector. This divergence shows that execution business model and sustainable profitability are more crucial than mere buzzwords. Will market selection in the AI sector be even tougher in the future?

Source wallstreet ONLINE from August 12, 2025

$AI (+5,01 %)

One of the not so well-known companies, I am open for a discussion ☑️

Entry was yesterday before earnings btw.

Nvidia quarterly figures + Salesforce revenue misses expectations and outlook disappoints + Cryptocurrency threatens to slide into a bear market + Amazon launches "Alexa+" with advanced AI features + Snowflake beats estimates + C3.ai loss narrows and revenue rises + EBay forecasts quarterly revenue

Nvidia $NVDA (-0,8 %)quarterly figures

• NVIDIA Corp. fourth quarter earnings per share of $0.89 beat analyst estimates of $0.84.
• Revenue of USD 39.3 billion exceeds expectations of USD 38.02 billion.
• Sales increase of 78 percent in the past quarter
• Nvidia forecasts sales of USD 43 billion (plus/minus 2%) for the first quarter, exceeding market expectations of USD 41.78 billion, as the company expects continued strong demand for its AI chips.
• Gross margin is expected to fall to 71% due to start-up costs for the new Blackwell AI chips, below the 72.2% expected by Wall Street.

Salesforce revenue $CRM (+0,53 %)misses expectations and outlook disappoints

• Salesforce reported fourth-quarter revenue late Wednesday that fell short of Wall Street estimates, while earnings from its customer relationship management platform came in higher than expected.
• Revenue rose 8% year-over-year to $9.99 billion for the three months ended Jan. 31, but fell short of the $10.04 billion consensus estimate compiled by FactSet.
• Adjusted earnings per share rose from $2.29 to $2.78, above market expectations of $2.61.
• Shares fell 5.6% in after-hours trading.
• Subscription and support revenue rose 8% to $9.45 billion, while professional services and other increased from $539 million to $542 million.
• Salesforce expects fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $11.09 to $11.17, which would be an increase from the $10.20 reported in January but below the consensus estimate of $11.20.
• Revenue is expected to increase 7% to 8% to $40.5 billion to $40.9 billion, a slowdown from the 9% growth in fiscal 2025 and below market expectations of $41.37 billion for fiscal 2026.
• For the current quarter, Salesforce expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.53 to $2.55 on revenue of between $9.71 billion and $9.76 billion, which would represent year-over-year growth of 6% to 7%.
• The Street is expecting $2.62 billion and $9.91 billion respectively.

Cryptocurrency $BTC (+1,49 %)threatens slide into a bear market

• Bitcoin's price slide accelerated in the meantime on Wednesday afternoon.
• However, the oldest and best-known digital currency stabilized again recently.
• Bitcoin briefly slipped to 85,341 dollars on the Bitstamp trading platform, its lowest level since mid-November last year.
• Most recently, Bitcoin was trading at almost 87,900 dollars and thus back at the level of Tuesday evening.
• Since reaching a record high of more than 109,000 dollars in January, Bitcoin has lost around a fifth at its peak.
• From a market perspective, the cryptocurrency is in a "bear market" at this level.
• This means that prices are set to fall over a longer period of time.
• Bitcoin's most recent slide accelerated on Tuesday after the price fell below 90,000 dollars.
• This caught those investors on the wrong foot who had bet on rising prices with leveraged products.
• These investors now had to close their positions, which intensified the selling pressure in the short term.
• "Bitcoin and Co. are still in the grip of trade disputes," wrote expert Timo Emden from Emden Research.
• Investors fear further punitive tariffs by US President Donald Trump in particular, which is detrimental to general risk appetite.
• At the same time, disappointment over the lack of concrete steps to introduce strategic Bitcoin reserves in the US is likely to resonate.
• In addition, the developments of the past weekend could continue to weigh on sentiment for cryptocurrencies, Emden continued.
• A cyber attack on the service provider Bybit had caused a furor.

Amazon $AMZN (-1,27 %)introduces "Alexa+" with enhanced AI functions

• With the new functions, it can converse with users and is available free of charge for Prime customers
• The new version is initially launching in the USA.
• The platform will be rolled out gradually in all countries where Alexa is currently available, enabling more natural control of smart home devices and connection to security cameras.

Snowflake $SNOW (-2,39 %)exceeds estimates in the 4th quarter

• Snowflake on Wednesday reported fourth-quarter non-GAAP diluted earnings of $0.30 per share, up from $0.35 a year earlier.
• Analysts polled by FactSet had expected $0.18.
• Revenue for the quarter ended Jan. 31 was $986.8 million, up from $774.7 million a year earlier.
• Analysts polled by FactSet had expected $956.9 million.
• The company said it expects product revenue of $955 million to $960 million for the first quarter and $4.28 billion for fiscal 2026.
• Analysts were expecting $961 million for the quarter and $4.23 billion for the year.
• The stock rose more than 9% in extended trading.

C3.ai $AI (+5,01 %)Q3 loss narrows and revenue increases

• C3.ai on Wednesday reported a non-GAAP diluted loss of $0.12 per share for the third quarter, down from a loss of $0.13 a year earlier.
• Analysts polled by FactSet had expected a loss of $0.25.
• Revenue for the quarter ended Jan. 31 was $98.8 million, up from $78.4 million a year earlier.
• Analysts polled by FactSet had expected $98.1 million.
• The company expects fourth-quarter revenue of $103.6 million to $113.6 million and 2025 revenue of $383.9 million to $393.9 million.
• Analysts polled by FactSet expect $108.6 million for the quarter and $388.3 million for the year.

EBay $EBAY (+4,04 %)forecasts quarterly revenue

• E-commerce company eBay on Wednesday forecast first-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates, pointing to weak demand for products such as collectibles and refurbished goods.
• Shares of eBay fell about 7% in extended trading.
• High interest rates and persistent inflation have held back consumer spending in the U.S. for two years, leading to sluggish demand for non-essential items such as collectibles and luxury accessories.
• EBay has been pressured by slowing advertising revenue.
• The company expects revenue for the quarter to be between $2.52 billion and $2.56 billion, compared with analysts' average estimate of $2.59 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
• The company expects first-quarter adjusted earnings between $1.32 and $1.36 per share, with the midpoint above estimates of $1.33.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• Unilever GBP 0.38
• Diageo 0.41 GBP
• Barclays final 0.06 GBP

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 22:30 HP Inc Quarterly figures
• No time specified: Edison International | The Mosaic | Dell | Autodesk quarterly figures | GE Healthcare Technologies Investor Day

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 06:00 Adtran Networks preliminary annual results
• 07:00 Hella | Kion | Nordex | Deutsche Pfandbriefbank | Axa | ABB | Swiss Re annual results
• 07:30 Baader Bank | Befesa | Sixt | Aixtron | Hensoldt | Scout24 | Telefonica SA annual results
• 07:45 Eni SpA, Strategic Plan 2025 - 2028 | Engie SA Annual Results
• 08:00 Beiersdorf | Haleon | London Stock Exchange | Rolls-Royce Annual Results
• 09:00 Iberdrola Annual Results | Kion Analyst and Press Conference | Befesa Analyst Conference | Beiersdorf Analyst and Press Conference
• 09:30 Deutsche Pfandbriefbank BI-PK
• 10:00 Hella Analyst Conference | Scout24 PK
• 12:00 Intesa Sanpaolo detailed annual results and annual report
• 13:00 SAP Annual Report
• 14:00 Eni SpA analyst and press conference
• 15:00 Scout24 Analyst Conference
• 18:05 Saint-Gobain annual results
• Without time information: ACS | Endesa | Valeo | EDP Annual figures

• Economic data

09:00 CH: GDP 4Q FORECAST: +0.2% yoy/+1.6% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy/+2.0% yoy

09:00 ES: HICP and consumer prices (preliminary) February HICP PROGNOSE: +2.9% yoy previously: +2.9% yoy

10:00 EU: ECB, M3 money supply and lending January M3 money supply FORECAST: +3.8% yoy previously: +3.5% yoy

11:00 EU: Economic Sentiment Index February Eurozone Economic Sentiment PROGNOSE: 96.0 PREV: 95.2 Industrial confidence Eurozone PROGNOSE: -12.0 PREV: -12.9 Consumer confidence Eurozone PROGNOSE: -13.6 PREV: -13.6 PREV: -14.2

11:00 EU: Eurozone Business Climate Index February

11:30 BE: Consumer Prices February

13:30 EU: ECB, minutes of the Governing Council meeting of January 29/30

13:30 US: Richmond Fed President Barkin, speech at Fayetteville Cumberland Economic Development

14:30 US: GDP (2nd release) 4Q annualized PROGNOSE: +2.3% yoy 1st release: +2.3% yoy 3rd quarter: +3.1% yoy GDP deflator PROGNOSE: +2.2% yoy 1st release: +2.2% yoy 3rd quarter: +1.9% yoy

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) FORECAST: 225,000 Previous: 219,000

14:30 US: New orders for durable goods January FORECAST: +2.0% yoy previous: -2.2% yoy

17:45 US: Fed Governor Bowman to speak at Fort Hays State University Robbins Banking Institute event