Is this a generational aviation plot twist nobody saw coming?
Airbus spent the last five years looking like the responsible one among the aircraft manufacturers while Boeing lit itself on fire every other quarter. Go back a year in time and everyone would talk about Airbus as the safe one, the competent one, the “we actually know where our bolts are” one. No mysterious crashes, no doors disintegrating mid-flight, no ridiculous debt load. But 2025 gave us a bit of a plot twist: Airbus is the one stumbling (obviously a slight exaggeration, considering the stock is still up YTD), and Boeing is finally starting to look functional again.
The WSJ reported that Airbus is facing fresh production delays, new supply-chain headaches, and slipping delivery targets. This sounds bad and is exactly what Boeing had to cope with over the last painful years. After an era of flawless execution, suddenly the company can’t deliver planes at the pace airlines desperately need. And airlines are truly desperate right now, which is why the backlogs for Airbus and Boeing are filled for years to come. Demand is exploding and routes are expanding. Is that really the time you should let the market down, Airbus?
Meanwhile Boeing, the company we collectively bullied for half a decade, is now the one cleaning up its act. They won a $100 billion defense contract for the F-47 project over Lockheed Martin and secured the future of this segment for Boeing, while the commercial side is recovering as well. The 737 MAX scandal is fading away, quality-control processes are stabilizing, and delivery numbers are finally heading in the right direction. For once, it’s Airbus giving excuses while Boeing quietly gets things done. A few years ago I would have bet on them going bankrupt rather than beating Airbus.
So do we have a new problem child? Maybe not a full-blown meltdown, but Airbus is undeniably wobbling. Add to that a P/E around 30, which might be fair for now given the demand backdrop, but still too expensive for my taste. Especially considering that sentiment can turn brutally fast in this industry. The moat is undeniably there, and nothing will change about the sort-of duopoly the giant is operating in, but cracks in the story can lead to a re-rating. I loved owning Airbus until earlier this year and made a nice return, but I refuse to pay luxury prices for a company beginning to struggle with years of no serious competition which left its marks.
Airbus will recover like great companies always do. But right now, the premium over Boeing, or one of my other aviation favorites Embraer, seems questionable.
