5D·

Belly vs. head challenge! Month 1!

So dear community. The 4th week and therefore the 1st month of our challenge is over.

And how?

Well, our @Epi didn't really get off the ground this week and after the first month stands at

+ 1,76 %

@Krush82 will certainly not be satisfied with the month.

It ended the first month at - 4.14%

That leaves the multibagger. I haven't changed anything in my values this week.

$RIOT (+0,81 %) has performed well and now stands at + 11.77%

$ENPH (-4,65 %) has also performed well and is now up 44.5%.

$BB (-10,18 %) but has taken the cake and now stands at

+ 55,5 %

Overall, the multibagger in the Challenge is thus at a monthly plus of

+ 55,62 %. And that's without any derivatives so far.

That's pretty good and I think and hope that my two opponents want to and will improve their performance with new players.

I don't know yet whether I'll change one or more values at the start of the new month, but if I do, you'll be there live!

Start. Status Change € %

879,36. 894,82. 15,46 1,76 %

942,60. 903,54 - 39,06 - 4,14%

1000. 1556,23 556,23 55,62%

25 Comentarios

Epi@Epi

You've had a lucky month: one of the strongest stock rallies ever right at the start.

It is built into GTAA that it underperforms during stock rallies. This is one of the systematic costs of a low-beta strategy.

If you had started at the beginning of 2024 or so, the comparison would certainly look different. In this respect, I'm rather curious to see where we stand at the end of 2026 and 2027. 👍

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Epi The nice thing is that, thanks to my new stability anchor😉, I also benefit when things are otherwise going against me. 🚀
So it's a win/win for me!
Even if you wouldn't expect it from me at first glance. I already thought about what sense a challenge could make beforehand, apart from a comparison of tails for which I'm too old.

Your first sentence is called time the market!
Of course the result is not representative. But it also shows again that my assumptions, like the wikis, were not wrong, unlike my strategy in certain market phases. I came up with the idea at the beginning of April after seeing that your strategies went through the roof in the exact month when my portfolio was down 15%. And after a little more historical comparison of other top and bottom months of mine, I then started in May.

•

Epi@Epi

@Multibagger The first month with this performance can make it much more difficult to compare the strategies. If in one year your strategy has +50% and mine +45%, then it looks to the layman as if yours is better. However, yours would then be much more asymmetrical (everything at the beginning, then nothing more, i.e. more luck) and mine more continuous (+5% every month, i.e. more of a system). This can be mapped with Sortino Ratio, but few people are interested in and know such metrics.

In other words, for a real challenge, perhaps we should use comparison metrics that go beyond simple profit accumulation? 🤷

•

Krush82@Krush82

@Epi that's a good idea

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Epi I will also add a monthly performance in addition to the cumulative performance. This is also in my interest because I can then compare even better whether my assumptions of non-correlation are correct.

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Epi What do you have in mind? I don't want to make a science out of it 😉

••

Epi@Epi

@Multibagger I think an overview of the monthly performances could help with the overview. On this basis, you can also make more informed statements about the strategies after 1-2 years. 🤷

•

Krush82@Krush82

@Epi sounds good, if @Multibagger then also includes the spy and qqq in the monthly performance matrix, one could most likely make really well-founded statements

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Krush82 I have no idea what you're talking about. 😉 And to be honest, I don't want to do that much evaluation work either.

••

Chris@Multibagger

@Krush82 Please bear one thing in mind. I admire your accretion in the development of your strategies. But I am only rudimentarily interested in the analyses behind them. I look at whether a strategy, share or derivative works and generates a sufficient return for me. Then I invest. I don't need to know whether the performance is due to Spy or qqq or anything else. At the moment, I plan to let this comparison run for a whole year. I can draw enough conclusions from it for myself. What you then make of it is up to you.
Don't be angry. For me, the stock market is not a science.

•

Epi@Epi

@Multibagger Science is only the successful belly explicated and systematized.

So: a simple table with the various monthly performances lined up should suffice as an initial overview, I think. Or is it?

•

Ver todas las 2 respuestas adicionales

Wealth-Accelerator@Wealth-Accelerator

Really strong, that has to be made up first 🫨
My MSCI World Momentum Champions satellite returned an impressive 21% (5,000 euros) in May. Kioxia started as the smallest position and finished as the top performer with over 70% in May.
Here is my latest report and my picks for June https://getqu.in/SVf1YK/ 💪

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Wealth-Accelerator Congratulations, it looks very good too.

•

Krush82@Krush82

Why shouldn't I be satisfied? I can't quite understand your -4.14% return, but neither can I understand the stated 1M performance (+14%) at wikifolio :-) In the end only the YTD performance counts and looks okay so far

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Krush82 My performance, which I have shown, is simply the difference between the purchase of your certificate on May 4 and the price yesterday at the closing price. I can't evaluate anything else.

••

Krush82@Krush82

@Multibagger ok, i didn't know exactly when you bought... then of course you got off to a bad start. it's just a snapshot. Then let's just ignore the first 4 weeks of the challenge ;-)

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Krush82 The challenge continues. I got off to a good start. My aim is to test whether my observation that your wikis don't correlate with my strategy and thus perform when things aren't going well for me is correct.

•

Krush82@Krush82

@Multibagger what was / is your thesis again - when will you out/underperform the two wikis?

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Krush82 if the broad market is volatile and goes up, I will outperform you. In risk-off mode with concentration on the big stocks you will be ahead. If the stock market tends to move sideways or downwards across the board, Epi will be ahead. You could see this very clearly in March, for example, where I made -15% and you took off like a rocket. It was the same last year with my two months, at least with Epi. Yours didn't exist then. So if I'm right and you reach at least 45% a year, I'll increase the shares.

••

Krush82@Krush82

@Multibagger Okay, I understand, which performance value for which benchmark index would you use as a guideline for the scenarios mentioned (broad market goes up, sideways or down)?

•

Wealth-Accelerator@Wealth-Accelerator

@Krush82
What's next for you in the wiki? Back to Micron and Western Digital?

•

Chris@Multibagger

@Krush82 steep, as you have certainly seen in recent weeks. However, I think that even 2-3% in the NASDAQ on a monthly basis is enough for me to achieve a significant outperformance, as I can then concentrate on the most promising sectors and clearly outperform.
Whenever the S&P outperforms the NASDAQ, you come into play.
And when both indices go backwards over a period of 1-2 months, the hour of Epi strikes.
But the percentages are not set in stone. They are just starting points.

••

Krush82@Krush82

•