Hi guys,
In the last few months I decided to open a new portfolio in which I decided to collect companies the market doesn't want.
Just like a garbage collector would do I pick stocks that are sold off, hated , not more popular or at 52 weeks low.
I wanna test if this type of emotionless asymmetric approach can beat the market in the long run.
The rules are simple:
- Once I buy a stock I have to keep it and I cannot sell it until the market start to appreciate this company or the sector again
- I avoid companies who are clearly and objectivly going bankrupt according to GAAP principles
- I'll try my best to post regularly
The first sector which is obviously hated right now is the software sector with the so called SaaSpocalypse.
The company I decided to collect is $CSU (-2,23 %) - Constellation Software.
This company lost 50% of it's market cap due to the AI fears.
It is a serial acquirer who operates vertical critical softwares across different industries like for example in the mining sector or in the public services sector.
It owns more than a 1.000 small companies and operates in a decentralized way.
These are sectors with a very small Total Adressable Market so it's less likely that a competitor shows up.
The market fears that since everyone now can vibe code software this company will become useless because customers can simply stop using the mission critical softwares that Constellation provides and vibecode their own software with Claude.
I think this scenario is irrealistic because this softwares are usually cheap for the company who uses them (Constellation doesn't increase prices) and more importantly they are mission critical.
A problem in the code can stop the business activty for days and no manager want to be responsible fot that just to save few bucks.
However the market thinks otherwise and decided to annihilate this company.
"One man's trash is another man's treasure"
