Adapt to market phases

1Lun

Buy & Hold thrives on sitting out market phases. If you deviate from this, you automatically take a timing risk and have to consistently implement signals. Do you have a clearly defined set of rules for this, or do you tend to go with your gut feeling?

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1Lun

@Yoshika Yes, at least 90% of them go into strategies with clearly defined rules. Partly momentum-based (GTAA), partly only SMA-based (different variants). I will research the exact allocation of the strategies in more detail. The rest possibly crypto or individual stocks. Are you going for a specific strategy or are you running one?

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1Lun

@Simon_n
Thanks for the insights, that sounds pretty systematic 👍. I'm taking more of a bottom-up trend-following approach.

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1Lun

@Yoshika also interesting, trend following on single stocks or ETFs?

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1Lun

@Simon_n
rule-based via SMA200, stops and gradual position building. Let profits run, losses are consistently limited via stops, without active selling.
In other words, systematically at individual stock level.

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1Lun

@Yoshika cool, I like it, good luck with it 🚀

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1Lun

@Simon_n
Thank you ♥️.
Good luck to you too.

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1Lun

The good old market timing lol good luck you are basically gambling.
Going in and out market has been proven countless time to be a losing strategy, I don’t really understand why people still do this

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1Lun

@surgicalinvesting It‘s not gambling, it‘s actually very strategic with clear rules. Only a small fraction of this is being kept for potential pullbacks, the vast majority will flow into well tested and proven Momentum strategies. As stated in the post, this is not about going in and out, but about rearranging my portfolio to be more resilient while delivering better performance.

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1Lun

@Simon_n again, it’s being proven that keeping money on the side in hope for dips is a losing strategy in the long run, but you do you

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1Lun

@surgicalinvesting true, but looking at many, many, market indicators, it doesn’t look very promising for the next year. Maybe I‘ll miss out on something, maybe not.

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1Lun

You and I don’t have the knowledge to “look at the indicators”, this is only for phds working at Wall Street. Don’t fall for this bullshit, keep buying without looking at the news

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1Lun

@surgicalinvesting Well those data are easily available, and some studies have shown, that the performance in the years following a phase with e.g. a higher than average CAPE-Ratio was significantly smaller. Why do you think that‘s just for wall street phds?

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1Lun

@Simon_n cape ratio has already been disproved as a predictive model. Do you think you can compete with Wall Street? Ahah

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1Lun

@surgicalinvesting How exactly has it been disproven? I‘m not aware of any evidence, if you have any please share it. And it‘s not the only metric indicating a difficult market situation.

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1Lun

@surgicalinvesting And I don‘t think I can compete with „wall street“ although thats not a person, I just want to secure my portfolio against deep drawdowns. That‘s all. If you think it doesn‘t work, fine.

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1Lun

Cape ratio doesn’t take in consideration factors as risk factors. And history has proven that nobody can predict market drops consistently unless you are literally in the top 0.001% of investors. I’m telling you this to help you not lose money

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