1Año·

$MAERSK A (+1,93 %)
$HLAG (+1,98 %)
$ZIM (-1,06 %)
#container


A few weeks ago, there were some posts on the topic of shipping companies, mainly triggered by the partly nice or rather high special dividends đŸ€‘


For all those who deal with shipping companies, perhaps a few facts about transshipment and the largest ports in the world are also interesting? Without container ports, global trade would grind to a halt!


When it comes to valuing and estimating the future development of the companies, the data of the ports or their estimates can also be a good indicator, or another source of information to check your own investment case.


Among the top 10 container ports, there are now 8 in China 😳. The "size" of a port is measured by its handling volume in standard containers, so-called TEU. These are Twenty-foot-Equivalent Units, an internationally standardized unit for throughput volume.


The container throughput worldwide will grow to almost one billion TEU by 2024 (Drewry estimate - see link below). (Drewry estimate - see link below). Asia in particular will grow strongly, according to shipping experts. Europe, the second largest region after Asia, will also benefit from the increase in transport volume, but not quite as strongly. Overall, all regions will record an "increase" in container throughput, including the Middle East, North and South America, as well as Africa and Australia with Oceania.


Throughput has been increasing worldwide for years. Compared to 2015 (index = 100), the container throughput index is 20 percent higher worldwide (120.2 in January 2023). It peaked in June 2022 at 126.4.


The current largest ports in the world (volume 2022) are as follows


1. shanghai 47.28 mio TEU

2. Singapore 37.29 mio TEU

3. ningbo-zhou 33.36 million TEU

4. shenzhen 30.04 mio TEU

5. qingdao 25.66 mio TEU

6. guangzhou 24.60 mio TEU

7. busan 22.07 mio TEU

8. tianjin 21.03 mio TEU

9: Los Angeles 19.04 million TEU

10th Hong Kong 16.64 mio TEU

11 Rotterdam 14.46 mio TEU

12: Dubai 13.97 million TEU

13 Antwerp 13.50 mio TEU

14: Port Klang 13.22 million TEU

15. xiamen 12.03 mio TEU


My conclusion: The increasing freight volumes should not be a disadvantage for the major shipping companies! Nevertheless, to date I am not invested in $MAERSK A (+1,93 %)
$HLAG (+1,98 %)
$ZIM (-1,06 %) and Co. Many factors influence the freight rates and thus also the achievable returns. Container rates China-Europe were a few years ago still under 1000USD, these have increased in the Corona crisis by a multiple, now somewhat normalized again, but still very volatile. For me a little too incalculable. But, still remains an interesting area!


Sources:

Drewry - Maritime Research, Consulting and Financial Advisory Services

Online liner shipping solution - Alphaliner

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34 Comentarios

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1Año
@TomTurboInvest nice contribution, thank you đŸ™‚đŸ€ As an international logistics manager with focus on the lanes NCMP (simplified exAsia to EU) these topics are my daily bread. Since about August 2022 the sea freight rates are strongly declining and have leveled off again with the current rate to a pre-Covid level. However, one must take into account that due to the geopolitical situation, inflation and the resulting lack of purchasing power, the volume to be shipped has been declining for months or is at a very low level. In short: There is a lack of export volume, forwarders are again contacting customers and asking for volume/orders, shipping companies are canceling planned sailings and announcing blank sailings in order to fill the remaining ships. In parallel, new, large ships with more capacity are being deployed and older, smaller ships are going into the shipyard or being taken off the market. Basically, I can report a slight shift in volumes CN, VN. It remains exciting to see how India will develop. 📈 It is still gigantic sums of TEU that are transported, but for 2023 to the half-year 2024 I do not assume that the shipping company after the record year 2021/2022 to their sales will continue and here it will be exciting, investors will react to this in the long term. No investment advice 🖖😃
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@iboT_K Do you hear a strong overvaluation between the lines? In other words, the current prices correspond to the decline in business? A hot topic these shipping companies that I would like to have despite the dividend reluctantly in the portfolio😅
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@iboT_K if you're still a logistics manager in this area after Corona, you've already got top resilience 😅👍 The "normal" annual peak seasons were nothing compared to that... I work in purchasing, where logistics has taken on a completely different significance, I mean it's always been important, but it's never been such a bottleneckđŸ„¶ It's great for us that things have eased up again 😉 ...
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1Año
@GoDividend Sales expectations have been and will be further adjusted and reduced, yes. I do not see record sales in the medium term. * With a fleet of 250 container ships and a transport capacity of 1.8 million TEU, Hapag-Lloyd is the fifth largest shipping company in the world - behind Cosco, CMA CGM, Maersk and the prime MSC. Like Hapag-Lloyd, the considerably larger Danish shipping company Maersk had also recently published slumps in its business figures at the beginning of the year. Accordingly, sales fell by 26 percent in the first quarter to 14.2 billion dollars (around 12.8 billion euros). Earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) shrank by more than two thirds to 2.3 billion dollars.* Source Manager Magazin (https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/hapag-lloyd-reederei-mit-massivem-gewinn-und-umsatzeinbruch-nach-rekordjahr-a-4a1c3afb-a541-402e-aecd-23f880e97f7f#)
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1Año
@TomTurboInvest yes 😂 and even with promotion đŸ€ Peak seasons are really nothing compared to that. The annual rate increases around Christmas, Golden Week and chinese year are a drop in the bucket in comparison. 💧 I'm with you on that 🙂 anyone who has worked in these areas through Covid and had to deal with supply chain difficulties, equipment issues, 5 digit ocean freight rates and all the challenges, yes today's day to day business is almost boring 😂🙌
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@iboT_K NCMP = NorthChinaMainPort. However, the abbreviation does not describe the trade, otherwise I'm with you 😃
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1Año
@InvestmentQuelle It is not about the trade, but about the lanes. However, not only the main ports from CN run under the NCMP, but also, for example, the MP from Vietnam ect.
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@iboT_K no that is not correct. NCMP = NorthChinaMainPorts. This includes Shanghai and Ningbo in particular, but certainly not the ports from Vietnam.
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1Año
@InvestmentQuelle then tell me with pleasure under which the MP from Vietnam are to be classified in the SCFI (NCMP, MED, SAM, PEGU ect.) 😊 How do you come on it and which points of contact do you have with me the SC?
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@iboT_K The SCFI is a rate index and has less to do with the regional abbreviation NCMP. If by SC, you mean the supply chain and you go out on a limb with your market assessment as an international logistics manager, then the data should also be correct. I strongly assume that you work as a logistics manager for a company in the manufacturing or trade sector and that your main focus is the procurement of products from Asia. Or do you work for an ocean freight forwarder or shipping company? Then I would be even more surprised about the untruths
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1Año
@InvestmentQuelle your statements and theses are super interesting, also your interpretation of "going out on a limb". i would be happy if you tell us what is your assumption under which abbreviation the vietnamese mainports are shown in the SCFI? also interesting to understand would be where you got the knowledge from?
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I found the rental business around the containers interesting and therefore had $TRTN in the portfolio. ->Because even if less is transported the things were just rented and whether they were on the road or not did not matter. But now no longer in the depot because -> https://getqu.in/hj7Xsl/hKreJy/
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@GoDividend I don't even want to think about the container bottleneck in the Corona era đŸ„¶ Increasing freight volume requires more containers...
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@TomTurboInvest And if you had a container, there was no ship or no port open.
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Thank you for these posts, im looking more at what I like about the companies vs the dividend and always grateful to get a better understanding of the industry as got positions in $ZIM and $GSL
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@rockynz It is always good to have information about the business environment as well👍
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Great post! đŸ‘đŸ„°
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ZIM is a pure air number... in my eyes a Ponzi scheme... They only rent ships and pay out too high dividends... which are not covered in any way in the long term.
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1Año
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@Michael-official They also serve an interesting area. The redistribution between the large ports and the smaller ports, from where it then goes to the "last mile" via inland shipping or land freight. That is always needed.
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1Año
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@oliverplass well, even if we don't want to hear it, but we know anyway where the growth of very many global companies in recent years has come from... not from Europe or the USA
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1Año
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@oliverplass probably true...🙄 When you see how China is positioning itself geopolitically, is currently proceeding in Africa, and has developed in recent yearsđŸ„¶ I was in China for the first time in 1997, when they were still proud to whiz from Shanghai airport into the city at 600km/h with German technology, smiled at them because they only copied everything.
In 2014, a Chinese partner once said to me confidently "we know your products better than you do". Not even you write - BTC will fix it 😱
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