3D·

Assessment Lynas Rare Earth

Swarm knowledge/opinions requested.

Have $LYC (-3,34 %) in the portfolio, unfortunately bought too late.

Due to the current development, finally slightly up and now considering selling the position. I don't want it to be a long-term share. I was speculating on a short-term positive upward trend, but unfortunately this was not the case in the second half of the year.

How do you rate the share for the next 3-6 months?

Chart technicians, how do you see the upward breakout scenario and what support on the downside?

Thank you very much for your help

17 Comentarios

Chris@Multibagger

They are the largest and only significant producer of rare earths outside China at the moment and I am and will remain invested.

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investment_wizard_2286@investment_wizard_2286

@Multibagger Thank you. That is the reason why I invested. I was just hoping for a positive price development sooner.

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Chris@1Chrischi1

@investment_wizard_2286 YTD 73% how fast should it go? 😁

your former time was just not the best 😇

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investment_wizard_2286@investment_wizard_2286

@1Chrischi1 This year is great. And the description of my purchase date is politely worded

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Multibagger have an assessment of gold. Do you think it will go down even further due to the oil price? I wanted to buy more of my gold mine, but maybe I should wait a little longer

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Chris@Multibagger

@Tenbagger2024 A very difficult question at the moment. I'm keeping my mining stocks and my ETF. But I wouldn't buy any more at the moment.

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Ozzel@Ozzel

@Multibagger ditto hold them too and think there will be a lot more rare earths are just rare 🔥

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jkb92@jkb92

You are the wizard 🧙 🔮

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

I don't see the chart here so much as the importance of Lynas. They are one of the few companies in the world that not only mine but also refine and separate and therefore now play a strategic role. Last year in late spring I took advantage of the hype to make a decent trade and re-entered in the fall with a smaller position as a medium-term investment

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capital_captain_2693@capital_captain_2693

@Raketentoni @Tenbagger2024
How do you see $LYC as an investment?
Especially after 73% plus ytd

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@capital_captain_2693 Hi @capital_captain_2693,
you see +73% YTD on Lynas Rare Earths and immediately FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) kicks in, right? 😂

Before you jump on the bandwagon here, let's run this thing through the filter relentlessly.

Here's the hard truth (figures based on the current share price of around AUD 20.59 in March 2026):

1. the required key figures (The reality check)
* P/E ratio (price-earnings ratio): approx. 205x to 245x (You read that right. This is a mining company, not an AI startup!)
* P/E ratio (price-sales ratio): approx. 25x to 26x (absurdly expensive for a commodity stock).
* KBV (Price-Book Value Ratio): approx. 5.5x
* KCV (Price-Cashflow Ratio): Operating cash flow is there, but free cash flow (FCF) is deep red (more on that in a moment).
* Dividend yield: 0.0% (figures not a cent).

2. the formula check
A) Core Quality Formula
* Sales growth: The first half of 2026 was strong after the slump in the previous year (sales jumped to around AUD 413 million, approx. +62% YoY).
* Operating margin: Currently at approx. 11%.
* Score: 62 + 11 = 73.
* The trap: The score looks good at first glance (> 25), BUT this is an extremely cyclical company. Sales slumped massively in the previous year. This is not qualitative, structural growth, but a pure commodity price rollercoaster (NdPr prices).
B) Cash flow quality formula
* Lynas is currently expanding massively (Mount Weld expansion, Kalgoorlie). This is eating up huge amounts of CapEx.
* Free cash flow: Deep in the red (most recently AUD -145m).
* FCF yield: Negative.
* Verdict: Miles away from a cash machine. They are currently burning money for growth.
C) Dividend Filter
* Yield 0.0 %.
* Verdict: Fail mercilessly.

3. the knockout criterion
Here is a very clear case of "Story > Numbers".
Lynas is a brilliant geopolitical story: "The largest producer of rare earths outside China! Indispensable for the Western defense industry and e-cars!"
But the stock market has already completely priced in this fantasy. A mining company that trades at 25 times its turnover is priced for absolute perfection. If the price of rare earths takes even a slight dip or there are further operational problems, such as the recent ramp-up of the plant in Kalgoorlie, the high valuation house of cards will collapse.

💡 Conclusion
"Great story, but fundamental suicide at these prices. You're 70% late to the party. The company pays zero dividends, has a negative free cash flow due to massive investments and is valued like a software miracle. Anyone who buys it now is hoping for the 'Bigger Fool' (someone who will buy it at an even higher price tomorrow). Hands off!"

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@capital_captain_2693 They are all rising quite a bit right now. I was also waiting for a correction with Almonthy

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BeachPlease@BeachPlease

Oh well, bad timing, they are on the brink of the abyss of the C-wave, which will probably end somewhere below $12.

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investment_wizard_2286@investment_wizard_2286

@BeachPlease What does that mean exactly? Can you explain this in more detail?

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BeachPlease@BeachPlease

@investment_wizard_2286 ABC downtrend
A down, went to $12.42
B up, but not above the high at $21.96. The price is currently stuck there.
C down, below A, ergo below $12.42.
The C wave is usually the strongest correction wave, i.e. stronger than the A wave. This means, as it stands now, that if the C wave is ONLY EXACTLY AS strong as the A wave, the correction will end at ~$11, pretty much at the golden ratio, which is an attractive buy zone.

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Middlfrangge@Middlfrangge

Estimates for the next 3-6 months? You might as well play the lottery. Like all commodities, it is highly cyclical and dependent on spot prices in the current geopolitical and economic situation. Profits therefore cannot be reliably calculated. Either trade according to strict chart techniques or invest with a strong stomach, otherwise there are certainly simpler stories

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Bagana@bagana

I’d keep an eye on $MEI

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