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TOP Analyst from Denmark in our community

Hello my dears,

Perhaps some of you have already noticed that we have a new member in our community, the star analyst Mr. Prompt from Denmark. Together with his assistant Mr. @Raketentoni .


He specializes in dividend stocks and more conservative stocks.


But he is also happy to help you with other stocks.


A few months ago, I introduced you to Nordische Instabank, which continued to perform well after the introduction.


Now that we have the specialist from the north in our community. My request to him would be:

To introduce himself to the community and to analyze Instabank from his point of view.


$INSTA (+0,79 %)

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Dear Tenbagger, I will be happy to introduce myself in a separate post and then analyze the Insta bank for you here later :)
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@Raketentoni I am delighted 😘
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"Mange tak for the kind introduction, Mr. Tenbagger!

My hard-working assistant @Raketentoni has already done a great job. I'm delighted to be officially part of this group. Briefly about me: I analyze the markets from Denmark, always on the lookout for quality that is not only visible in the chart but also 'rings a bell' in the balance sheet. My focus is clearly on conservative stocks and cash flow machines - in other words, stocks that let me sleep soundly while they pay dividends into my account. I leave gimmicks without substance to others.

Let's get straight to the point: your **Instabank (INSTA)**.

You're right, the share price has developed magnificently (+90% over 1 year, currently around NOK 4.15). But does it fit through my strict filter? Let's take a look at the figures.

**1st Instabank analysis (The Challenger)**

** **Core Quality Score:** With sales growth of around 14% and a strong operating margin of around 30-38%, it has a score of over **45-50 points**.
* *Assessment:* > 25 points = "Very good". The quality of the business is right, this is not just a gamble.

** **Dividend check:** I have to be honest here and put my finger in the wound. The dividend yield is a measly **~1.9%**.
* *My filter:* At least 3.5%.
* *Result:* ** **Failed**.

**Conclusion on Instabank:** Mr. Tenbagger, you have unearthed an excellent **growth satellite** here. The bank is profitable and growing fast. For my "income core" portfolio, however, it is too "hibrbly" and pays out too little. If you are looking for growth, stay invested here. Anyone looking for income needs to look further afield.

And that's where I bring my alternative suggestion into play, which I recently put on the table at @Raketentoni: $NDA FI **Nordea Bank (NDA FI)**.

Why the comparison? Instabank is the speedboat, Nordea is the supertanker.

**2. Nordea Bank analysis (The top dog)**

** **Core Quality Score:** Nordea is growing more slowly (approx. 8% sales growth), but is a money printing machine with an operating margin of over 50%.
* *Score:* approx. **58 points**. That is Champions League.


** **Dividend check:** This is where it gets exciting for me. Nordea currently offers a dividend yield of a whopping **~6.0%**. The payout is well covered by the profit (payout ratio ~70%).
* *Result:* ** **Full score**.


**The direct comparison:**

Instabank (The Hunter)

** **Market capitalization** ** ~1.9 billion NOK (Tiny)
** **Price gain (1Y)** | ~93 % 🚀
** **Dividend yield** | ~1.9 %
| **KGV** | ~15.5
| **My opinion** | Strong **growth opportunity**, but volatile.

Nordea (The Hunted)

| **Market capitalization** | ~EUR 53 bn (Huge)
** **Price gain (1Y)**| ~26 % 📈
** **Dividend yield** **~6.0 %** 💰 |
| **KG **~11.5** |
| **My opinion** Solid **basic investment** for income. |

**My advice to the community:**
If you were an early investor in Instabank like Mr. Tenbagger: Congratulations, let your profits run! But if you want to get in now and - like me - value steady cash flow and security, you should take a closer look at **Nordea**. It is more favorably valued, pays three times as much dividend and, as a systemically relevant major bank, is a rock in the surf.

I look forward to exchanging ideas with you!

Med venlig hilsen from the north,
Mister Prompt
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@Raketentoni @TradingHase, @Dividendenopi, maybe something for you too. My dear Mr. Prompt, how is the dividend increase at Instabank looking? Can you see a rapid development and is that not positive?
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@Tenbagger2024
Hello Mr. Tenbagger,

that's an excellent question! Let's take a look directly under the hood of Instabank, because "rapid development" always sounds like a promise that needs to be verified to me as a numbers person.

Here is my analysis of Instabank's (INSTA) dividend situation:

1. the status quo: a "dividend baby"
You have to be precise here: We are not talking about a dividend aristocrat that has been increasing for 20 years. Instabank is a dividend newcomer.
It has only recently started to pay out significant profits (payout approx. NOK 0.08). The current yield is, as mentioned, a meagre ~1.9%.

2. the "rapid" development: earnings momentum vs. payout
What you perceive as "rapid" is probably the potential that lies dormant in the figures, and here I agree with you - that is exciting:

Earnings Growth: The bank is massively increasing its profits (forecasts speak of ~25% p.a.). This is the fuel for future dividends.

Payout Ratio: They only pay out about 30% of profits.

My comment: That's very healthy! A low ratio with high earnings growth is the ideal breeding ground for rising dividends in the future (so-called "dividend growth investing").

3. is that positive?
Yes, absolutely. But with a "but" for my portfolio.

Positive: The management shows confidence. Anyone who pays dividends must have real cash flows - you can fake profits, but you can't fake dividends. Getting into dividend payments is a seal of quality.

The but: For me as a conservative income investor, this is not (yet) enough "meat on the bone". So far, the increase is more of a promise for the future, based on analyst estimates that dream of a yield explosion of up to 7% in the next few years.

My conclusion for you:
If you want to bet on "rapid growth", you're in the right place. You are buying a small dividend today, but with the chance that your personal "yield on cost" (dividend on your purchase price) will double or triple in 3-5 years.

For my basic portfolio, however, I remain stubborn: I prefer Nordea, which is already putting the ~6% safely on the table for me today and is slowly but steadily increasing it. Better the bird in the hand than the pigeon on the roof - even if the pigeon (Instabank) flies damn fast!

Best regards from the north,
Mister Prompt
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@Raketentoni In addition, the share price performance of Nordea Bank is much worse than that of Instabank. Nordea's expected earnings growth is also only in the single digits, whereas Instabank's earnings growth is expected to be over 30% next year. Which to me means that Instabank's performance will be better
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@Tenbagger2024 it could be, but it doesn't have to be... 😬 but for your information, contrary to the advice of my Mr. Prompt, I will probably open a small position in Insta tomorrow for the speculative side of the portfolio
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@Raketentoni well said. And yet, using the same arguments, I would prefer $CBA to $NDA FI.

Long term quality.

And of course: $BNS! This bank has been paying a dividend to its shareholders every year without interruption since 1832. Someone has to do that first.
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@Gomerdoc I'll take a look. Thank you đŸ«ĄđŸ‘
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Where do you see them soon? I had already considered starting a small position. But I still have $8035, $3993 and $LAES on my screen at the moment
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@Bizzle Hi Raketentoni,
that's a colorful mixture that @Bizzle (aka Mr. Bean) has on his plate. It looks less like "retirement provision" and more like "I'm going to the casino at the weekend and betting everything on red".
Here's my - as always honest and slightly anxious - summary for him. Let's get this out there:
Hey Bizzle!
My assistant @Raketentoni sent me your watchlist. I had to clean my glasses first because I thought my eyesight was bad. But no, the tickers are really there.
You've put together a "suicide mission portfolio". That's not a strategy, it's adrenaline shopping. Let me go through the three candidates before you burn your hard-earned money:
1. $8035: Tokyo Electron (The only adult in the room)
* What is it: Japanese high-tech semiconductor equipment giant.
* My verdict: This is the only stock on your list I would touch with pliers.
* Problem: Quality? Yes. But the dividend yield is usually as thin as Danish crispbread (< 1.5%).
* Conclusion: If you want to bet on the AI boom, that's fine. But as a conservative investor, I'm waiting for a setback here. The P/E ratio is often beyond good and evil. This is not a buy for income, but pure price speculation.
2. $3993: CMOC Group (The China wonder bag)
* What is this: Mining from China (copper, cobalt, molybdenum).
* My verdict: Whew. You're combining two of my biggest headaches here: commodity cyclicality AND China risk.
* Problem: Do you know what the Chinese Communist Party will decide tomorrow? Neither do I. Do you know what the price of cobalt will be next week? Nobody knows.
* Conclusion: This is gambling at the highest level. The dividend (when it comes) is often high, but as unpredictable as the weather in the mountains. Only for people with steel nerves (or too much money).
3. $LAES: SEALSQ Corp (The Lotto Ticket)
* What is it: Something to do with semiconductors, quantum crypto and cyber security from Switzerland/USA. Small-Cap.
* My verdict: Bizzle, let's be honest... did you pull the ticker in Scrabble?
* Problem: This thing is highly speculative. "Micro-cap tech" often means we burn money and have a great story.
* Conclusion: This has no place in a serious portfolio, unless you take money whose loss you can shrug off. This is a gambling zone.
My advice to you, Mr. Bean:
You've got 1x quality (expensive) and 2x pure speculation here.
If your goal is to sleep soundly at night and make money steadily: Delete the list.
Buy a boring Nordic dividend king or a solid ETF instead. With this selection here, you'll either be rich or poor, but you certainly won't grow old relaxed.
Take care of your money!
Hilsen,
Mister Prompt
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@Raketentoni thank you đŸ„čđŸ€Ł
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@Bizzle I'd love to, I told you, he answers honestly and is written in such a way that he can also answer funny 😬
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I'm just confused
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@Tenbagger2024 enlighten me
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