4D·

Buy or wait and see?

Hello everyone,

After slipping below the 25-euro mark, Telekom stock is testing new multi-month lows. Looking beyond the daily chart noise, there are currently three fundamental and technical drivers weighing on the price, but at the same time creating an interesting risk-reward ratio (RWR).

1. End of price support from the share buyback program

Technical support on the chart is currently fading, as the multi-billion-euro share buyback program is set to expire at the end of June as planned. The market’s reliable institutional buyer is thus taking a break for the time being, which has temporarily increased selling pressure in the order book.

2. The T-Mobile US merger rumors

Ongoing reports of a transatlantic holding company merger with T-Mobile US (to finally secure a majority stake in the U.S. and structurally block attacks such as those from SpaceX/Starlink) are causing uncertainty. A deal of this magnitude is extremely complex and ties up capital. Operationally, this does not change the fact that Telekom holds an absolute majority in the U.S., but the market is currently pricing in this short-term uncertainty.

3. The market views AI infrastructure as “traditional telecom”

Fundamentally, Telekom is still priced as a pure network operator (expected P/E ratio currently below 13, dividend yield just under 4%). Meanwhile, the Industrial AI Cloud launched in Munich in February (10,000 Nvidia Blackwell chips in the SAP stack)—which serves as Telekom’s own European cloud infrastructure for large corporations—has so far been completely ignored by the market.

Conclusion:

The fundamental valuation is becoming increasingly attractive at prices around €24.80. Those who view the stock as a defensive dividend play will find a solid foundation here for building a position following the technical correction in June, as the operational targets for 2026 (approx. €19 billion in free cash flow) remain fully intact.

How do you assess the current price level? Wait for a technical bottom, or start buying the first tranche?

Here’s another relevant video.

https://youtu.be/WLIFaVSrVtI?is=No58apZ7ro607RiA

www.youtube.comKI-Fabrik: Milliarden-Investition in München | BR24

8 Comentarios

Poor Dad@PoorDad

I'd wait here for solid ground.

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Keineui@Keineui

In my opinion, it hasn't hit bottom yet. I'd wait. I'm invested myself, but unfortunately, the stock is still falling. See also the SpaceX rumors in the U.S. (my post from yesterday).

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Robin2100@Robin2100

I bought it yesterday. We'll see.

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Matzke@Matzke

Here’s how the EU is ramping up pressure regarding copper deadlines:
In the draft Digital Networks Act, the European Commission sets a clear end date for old copper networks. Until the end of 2035, national authorities may only order the shutdown of copper lines if at least 95 percent of households in the respective region already have access to affordable fiber-optic service—meaning the fiber-optic infrastructure must be largely in place before the old network can be shut down.
Starting January 1, 2036, this condition will no longer apply: At that point, member states must shut down the remaining copper networks—with a few exceptions—regardless of the actual status of fiber-optic deployment. According to observers, it is precisely this fixed deadline that is intended to increase pressure on operators such as Deutsche Telekom to rapidly advance fiber-optic deployment, as they otherwise run the risk of leaving customers without a functioning alternative connection.

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Matzke@Matzke

@Matzke This means the politically subsidized telecom cash cow—copper cable—is gone!

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bull_investor_1319@bull_investor_1319

I bought some shares yesterday as my first installment. We'll see... I'll buy more at €22.7 and €21.

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Donald D.@Privateer

I entered a watchlist position at just under €24—21 shares. All telecom stocks took a hit. I also increased my Verizon position by 14 shares to 84. I’m now waiting on DTE; if it drops to €22–€21, I’d buy another 20 shares. I’ll add to my Verizon position if it falls below €35.

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Matzke@Matzke

I'm not touching Deutsche Telekom—the risk is way too high for me!

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