3D·

Unilever Spin off TMICC

Delivering strong growth, margin expansion, and cash flow with a focused, standalone strategy.

Key investment highlights

- Ice cream market is large, growing at 3-4% CAGR, and offers attractive returns compared to other snacking categories.

- Holds #1 global market share with €7.9bn revenue and €1.3bn Adj. EBITDA in 2024, and four of the five largest brands.

- Portfolio is positioned for growth, leveraging strong brands, innovation, and a broad emerging market footprint.

- Clear strategy focuses on growth, productivity, and reinvestment, with a €500m productivity program underway.

- Revamped front-line organization and incentive alignment drive accountability and profitable growth.

Market and business overview

- Global ice cream market reached €75bn in 2024, expected to grow to €90bn by 2029, with premium segments outpacing mainstream.

- Digital commerce is a key growth driver, projected at 9% CAGR from 2024-2029.

- Emerging markets offer significant upside, with outlet density and per capita consumption below developed markets.

- The business operates through At-Home, Away-from-Home, and dCom channels, leading in each.

- Resilient to GLP-1 impact, with product innovation tailored to evolving consumer health trends.

Regional performance and strategy

- Americas: #1 market position, strong brand portfolio, and innovation drive volume and share growth; cost base reset and digital expansion underway.

- Europe & ANZ: Market is resilient but faced recent challenges; turnaround strategy focuses on portfolio innovation, productivity, and digital-led demand creation.

- AMEA: Fastest-growing and most profitable region, with strategy centered on format innovation, digitalization, and cabinet expansion.

Financial guidance and outlook

- Medium-term targets (from 2026): 3-5% average annual organic sales growth, 40-60bps annual Adj. EBITDA margin improvement, and €0.8bn-€1bn free cash flow in 2028-2029.

- Capex to rise to 4-5% of revenue, with increased investment in innovation, capacity, and digital infrastructure.

- Balanced capital allocation policy includes a 40-60% dividend payout ratio and potential for bolt-on M&A.

- Separation from Unilever on track, with most one-off costs recognized by end of 2026 and full operational independence by 2027.

Strategic transformation and culture

- Standalone structure enables focused capital allocation, tailored operating model, and dedicated leadership.

- Productivity initiatives target €500m in savings, with supply chain, overhead, and technology transformation.

- Culture emphasizes innovation, accountability, and a winning, fun environment, with high employee engagement and positive business outlook.

Hab mir jetzt die ganze Präsentation angeschaut und muss sagen das Unternehmen sieht gar nicht so schlecht aus. Spannend wird es auf jeden Fall. Das Management wirkt auch sehr charismatisch und gut vorbereitet auf den Spin off. $ULVR (+0,02 %) Bin gespannt wie es in einem Jahr aussehen wird.

8 Comentarios

ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

@Soprano That looks like a good IPO to me. Just saying it now. On the topic: bad or good IPOs, how to recognize them

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Soprano@Soprano

Yes, but it has been known for a long time that they want to get rid of the ice cream. But there are probably more exciting IPOs. What do you think about $SNPS today? That's the more important question

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

@Soprano hey hey hey, just because it's known, you can still talk about it and I don't find it that uninteresting. The separation makes sense and the ROIC is actually not bad. It's difficult to say about Synopsys. First of all, I've doubled my position. One at 400 and one at 350. The thing is, I think it's actually a bit of a bummer that the Ansys takeover was completed now of all times. The China problem is stupid but at least understandable and the fact that Intel is cutting back on Synopsys before Candance is somehow foreseeable, but the takeover brings a lot of uncertainty. The numbers all look pretty bad now, with 14 billion debt and 14 billion dilution. I mean, I'm bulish on ASICs anyway, so there's no question that I went back in, but it's probably not so stupid to wait for Q4. I have listened to everything and from then on they will also show serperat Ansys, but if it looks better by then, you have also missed the current purchase price. I think under 400 is a very fair price, even at 500 the share was not really extremely expensive (considering that this is a dupol). Otherwise, the same things apply as before. More Ki, more chips, more complexity, leads to more EDA and simulation. So I think it's pretty exaggerated and I already waited at 400 and then it still went to 335. 10-15% would be fair but that was a slaughter.

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Soprano@Soprano

@topicswithhead Yes, the spin-off definitely makes sense, I can agree with that. Apart from that, I can't really say anything interesting about it, because I'm not really considering Unilever as an investment (but I once applied for a job in sales there haha).

I also think SNPS is a very exaggerated reaction. I hadn't bought anything yesterday because I've often experienced that shares often fall much further when they've already exaggerated downwards. Today I wanted to buy again. Maybe there will be a first countermovement today. However, you can never say for sure - I bought $TTD yesterday lunchtime and 2 hours later it went down by more than 10% because of an analyst's comment.

On the actual topic: Why do you think it is more logical for Intel to cut SNPS than Cadence? I would like to know that. Otherwise, however, there is absolutely nothing to blame Synopsys for the fact that one of its customers is now on the brink. China is always one of those things that you can't blame a company for, even if it is of course simply annoying. In any case, I'm also adding because what's the alternative? The topic remains too important not to be invested in and a certain manic-depressive volatility is part and parcel of chips and AI anyway.

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

@Soprano li bu ceo of Intel was Candace ceo when he turned the company back into what it is today. It is still unclear who the one is. In general Synopsys seems to be the one but in Eda specifically Candace seems to be the 1. You never know, I have no idea about the actual TAM. Candace in any case must have something, they trade at twice the P/E ratio. Their IP is smaller, Synopsys is better positioned, they are probably just positioned differently in the EDA. Either way, this should change soon, for better or worse. With the fullstack approach, you will either do much better or have spent 35 billion for nothing.

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Soprano@Soprano

@topicswithhead Oh yes, that's a good point about the CEO. In fact, I don't really know where the differences are in the technology of SNPS and CDS. I actually attributed the difference in valuation mainly to the fact that Cadence is growing slightly faster.

I opted for Synopsys mainly because of the valuation and because I see great potential in the acquisition of Ansys, similar to Broadcom + VMWare, which was one of the best acquisitions.

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

@Soprano same. It will be difficult now but also saw good potential in China or ROW for the combo. Until now, only Siemens had both to some extent and had hoped that Synopsys would win the shares. On average, I think almost everyone always has 2 of the providers and snatching the remaining shares from them would have been cool. But it may be difficult now. They are mainly positioned outside the USA and China in particular is probably becoming increasingly difficult for the USA indirectly, with the verbal and customs attacks

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

@Soprano did you at least buy it or did you wait for it?

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