13H·

🚀 Momentum strategy 2026: Update & objective 📈

Happy New Year everyone! 🎆 Just in time for the start of the year, I would like to share my portfolio update for the Top 8 share pool with you and give you an outlook for 2026.

First things first: no one knows whether 2026 will be a bull or bear year. Predictions for individual assets are often dubious. That's why I'm sticking to my rule-based model and present you with the current top 10.

🔝 My top 8 for the preselection 1st half of 2026:

Rank Share Sector Momentum Score

1 Western Digital ($WDC (+0,5 %) IT / Storage solutions 115,2 %

2 Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD (+0,12 %) ) Communication / Media 103,8 %

3 Micron Technology ($MU (+0,4 %) ) IT / Semiconductor 103,2 %

4 Seagate Tech ($STX (-0,38 %) IT / storage solutions 83,0 %

5 Albemarle ($ALB (+0,33 %) Chemicals / Lithium 74,7 %

6 Teradyne ($TER (-0,17 %) IT / semiconductor test 67,3 %

7 Newmont ($NEM (+2,64 %) ) Commodities / Gold 66,4 %

8 AppLovin ($APP (+0,43 %) Software / AdTech 64,4 %

(Closely followed by $HOOD (+0,58 %)
and $LRCX (+0,53 %)
in 9th & 10th place).

🔍 A few insights into the model:

The sector weighting is exciting this time. We see a strong cluster risk (but also momentum!) in the area of Memory technology and semiconductors.

Interesting: Almost all of the stocks did not perform until the 2nd half of 2025 generated. As my filter weights the most recent past more heavily than the older past, these stocks were flushed to the top. This could be a signal that the trend here is continuing to gather pace.

And which two stocks are we starting 2026 with?

They are still $MU (+0,4 %) and $WDC (+0,5 %) as these are the two leaders in the ranking within the share pool, in 3rd and 4th place by a relatively large margin.

This means that no action is required for the time being and the next check will not take place until the end of January.

🎯 My goal for 2026: The €50,000 mark

I'm starting with capital of 31.000 €. For motivation, I have created my projections based on various return scenarios:

My personal goal for the end of 2026 is a portfolio value of approx. 50.000 €. This requires a performance of around 60 %. Sporty? Yes. Impossible with momentum? No.

What is your assessment?

Especially with the memory values ($WDC (+0,5 %) , $MU (+0,4 %) , $STX (-0,38 %) are often a divisive issue. Do you still see the sector as the leader in 2026 or will it soon run out of steam? 💬

I wish you all a successful year on the stock market and, above all, good health! 🍀

Krush82

@Krush82

1Semana·

56% CAGR since 2000? Just utopian theory or actually possible? 📈🛡️ My path of single stock momentum investing

Foreword

I know what you're thinking. Is it time for finance porn again? You normally only see figures like this in dubious YouTube videos, WhatsApp or Telegram groups. But behind this theoretical performance is not a "magic trick", but a tough, quantitative set of rules. You will not only see the historical backtest returns below, but I will of course also show you the real returns that have been achieved since the start of the project. In the end, decide for yourself how realistic and how high the average annual return can be.

Introduction

Many private investors invest based on gut feeling, news headlines or "hot tips". I have decided to tune out the noise and put my trust in the bare figures. After months of development and intensive backtesting, today I present to you the logic of my S&P 500 Hybrid Momentum Model.

My goal: to motivate you to understand momentum not as "gambling" but as quantitative engineering and, of course, to get as close as possible to the returns of the backtest.

🔍 The origin: From ETF to individual stocks

It all started with classic momentum ETFs and strategies such as GTAA (Global Tactical Asset Allocation). But I wanted to know: Could this principle be transferred to individual stocks to significantly beat the market? After hundreds of backtests, analyzing various universes (SPY, QQQ) and sectors, I now have my set of rules.

💡 The basic idea: "Buy high, sell higher"

Winners" statistically continue to run, while "losers" continue to fall - Buying at the ATH is historically more profitable than buying at the ATL.

While value investors act according to the motto "buy low, sell high", momentum uses the statistical tendency: Winners keep on running.

An all-time high (ATH) is not a warning signal, but a sign of strength.
The opportunity costs (waiting on the sidelines) are historically often higher than the risk of buying at the peak.

🧩 The concept: a selective powerhouse

My approach is a purely quantitative set of rules that isolates the strongest trends in the S&P 500:

The Universe: Focus on the 500 most liquid US large caps (S&P 500).

The selection: A pool of 8 stocks is selected through a time-weighted momentum scoring filtered. More recent price developments (last 6 months) weigh more heavily in order to capture trend reversals early.

The anchors: Oil & crypto proxies flow in as strategic counterweights to generate additional performance in specific cycles (inflation/risk-on).

The safety belt (absolute momentum): To avoid massive drawdowns like in 2000 or 2008, the S&P 500 Index acts as a market filter. If the signal is negative, the model consistently switches to cash or money market cash or money market ETFs.

⚙️ Execution: focus on the leaders

A review takes place every month. Only the top 2 assets with the highest average score are held.

Why only two? The model is optimized for maximum performance. Diversification (top 3 or top 5) would reduce the maximum drawdown slightly, but would significantly dilute performance. If you prefer a more relaxed and less volatile approach, it is better to diversify here.

Capital preservation as a turbo: Those who lose less in crises benefit exponentially more from the next upswing due to compound interest.

📊 Performance & live results

The theoretical data (2000-2024) shows an impressive CAGR of 56 %. I have been actively implementing the model since the end of 2023 - with approx. 80% of my total portfolio out of full conviction:

Returns

2024 +152,1 %
2025 YTD: approx. +30 %

⚠️ Transparency on risk & volatility

High potential returns require iron discipline. The strategy is not for the faint-hearted:

Maximum drawdown: In the backtest there were setbacks of up to -37% (dotcom bubble 2000).
Psychology: The biggest enemy is not the market, but deviating from the rulebook in volatile phases.
Costs & taxes: Since it is a theoretical model, transaction costs and taxes reduce the result in reality. Nevertheless, the alpha advantage remains massive.

Conclusion

I will provide regular updates here on how the model assesses the current phase. This is not the only way to be successful - but it is my systematic way.

Become the engineer of your own portfolio. Test, optimize and stay disciplined.

Do you have any questions about the topic or anything else? Let me know in the comments! 👇

#Momentum
#Investing
#SP500
#SystematicTrading
#Finanzen
#TradingStrategy
#Backtest
#Wealth

Risk warning: No investment advice. Historical prices do not guarantee future profits. Any investment can lead to a total loss.

25 Comentarios

Epi@Epi

13H

Superbly written! I still think your model is a candidate for the gold standard for single stock momentum.
Perhaps I will use it for part of my trading portfolio? It's exciting and promising in any case!

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Krush82@Krush82

12H

@Epi hahaha... wait until the wikifolio is there ;-)

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Epi@Epi

12H

@Krush82... I'm waiting...

Your single stock Momentum Wikifolio would complete the Momentum Wikifolio series.

All that's needed is a crypto momentum model. But somehow nobody has dared to do that yet 😉.

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HyperX@AxoWallStreet

11H

@Krush82 Are you planning to create a wikifolio?

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Chris@Multibagger

10H

@Krush82 If you manage at least 50% on a permanent basis, I'll also invest a portion in your next project 😉😎

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Krush82@Krush82

@Epi That would probably be a very sophisticated momentum model, for good reason nobody has dared to try it yet 😅 Let's see who will develop ambitions there

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Krush82@Krush82

@AxoWallStreet yes, is already in the implementation phase

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Krush82@Krush82

@Multibagger I'll definitely give it my all

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HyperX@AxoWallStreet

@Krush82 Do you already have a link to the wikifolio so that people can bookmark it?

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Krush82@Krush82

@AxoWallStreet it is still in the release phase, therefore not yet divisible

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yieldhunter@randomdude

13H

Congratulations! 🍾 You seem to have arrived with your strategy. Now it's time to buckle up and persevere. Good luck!

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Krush82@Krush82

13H

@randomdude Thank you... It's true, perseverance is always what counts in the end and easier said than done. As long as I don't see a better opportunity for me anywhere, this will be my path.

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Olli@Olli68

12H

Very interesting strategy, which I can understand well through the updates. I will be there in 2026 with part of the portfolio. 👍

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Krush82@Krush82

@Olli68 Good luck and welcome to the Momentum Army 😅 how exactly do you want to implement this?

••

Olli@Olli68

@Krush82 Good question. I will save the strategy and act in the same way as you when stocks are wrong. A wikifolio from you would of course simplify this 😉
At the same time, I have decided to continue saving in the 3xGTAA wikifolio. Both strategies together should make up around 30% of my portfolio in 2-3 years.
Let's see...

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Krush82@Krush82

@Olli68 So, do you map and track yourself or "simply" trade according to what I post here?

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Olli@Olli68

@Krush82 Unfortunately, I'm anything but a strategist by nature. So: simple re-trading 😉

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

11H

Great selection. The question with $WBD is how much is still possible. Whether paramount has already withdrawn or whether there is still a bidding war. In the semiconductor sector, I also see some momentum in $4062 and $HY9H. Could perhaps be interesting for country diversification.

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Krush82@Krush82

@Tenbagger2024 You may be right, but I still have to include it. In the event of a takeover, I would have to add another candidate anyway. SK Hynix would actually also be a candidate, but as I have decided to focus only on the USA for the time being, I have to take it out

I would have to test the country diversification again first

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Neyney@Neyney

11H

Which parameters do you use for selection? The same as GTAA?

••

Krush82@Krush82

@Neyney I don't have the exact parameters of GTAA on my screen right now, as I don't use it myself. But if they are not the same, they are very similar as far as I can remember

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Silas@Bein-Godik

Hi, why are you starting in January with $WDC and $MU? According to your list above, $WBD is in 2nd place

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Krush82@Krush82

@Bein-Godik A legitimate question, perhaps I did not formulate it so clearly and unambiguously in my initial post. The top 8 selection mentioned above is only the first stage of the momentum model. Within the top 8 stock pool, a further measurement is made, but with 4 different time periods (from short to long) and the average score is calculated from this. In this case, Warner Bros currently has a lower score than the other two stocks MU and WDC

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Silas@Bein-Godik

@Krush82 Thank you. Will you publish the Top8 monthly in the future?

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Krush82@Krush82

@Bein-Godik the top 8 for the share pool is only determined twice in Lahr. Therefore, there is only an announcement/update at the beginning of the year and in the second half of the year. However, the top 2 from this top 8 pool are of course published every month

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