6Lun·

Portfolio presentation

Hi dear GQ community,

After some back and forth. And learning and getting advice, I have finally finished my portfolio.

I have now divided it up as follows:

65% -> B&H per savings plan
35% -> 2xSpytips-Cool-Strategy

At this point, first of all a huge thanks to @Epi and to @SemiGrowth for your patience and advice regarding the 2xSpytips strategy and the improved version of the 2xSpytips Cool strategy.

As follows, I have now restructured my portfolio today:

B&H strategy:

$IWDA (+0,02 %) -> 25% -> Broad diversification

$O (+1,55 %) -> 20% -> Dividends

$EIMI (-0,61 %) -> 10% -> emerging markets

$BTC (-0,05 %) -> 10%

2xSpytips-Cool-Strategy:

$CL2 (+0,22 %) -> 35%

I think I will do better in the long run with this portfolio than with the previous one. I can also sleep well with this one.

I follow both strategies so that if the 2xSpytips-Cool strategy is no longer profitable or doesn't perform well for whatever reason, I don't lose 100% of my investment.

And now it's your turn, I'm curious what you have to say and please stay objective 😊😅.

5Puestos

1,86 %

14 Comentarios

Stefan@Da_Fischi

6Lun

Hope you can withstand the next drawdown (-60% in 2020), because normally the Amumbo $CL2 is added to a small extent and not used as a basis. But higher risk can also mean higher returns.

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Epi@Epi

6Lun

@Da_Fischi He holds the Amumbo together with the 2xSpytips strategy. This has only a fraction of the maximum drawdown, around 20%.
Otherwise, of course, what Kostolany already said applies: if you have no money, you have to speculate. 😁

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Laro@Laro

6Lun

@Da_Fischi Thanks to the 2xSpytips-Cool strategy, this should theoretically not happen so quickly.
Because with this strategy you proceed as follows

If the SMA150 is higher than the price of $SPY then sell
If the SMA200 is higher than the price of $TIP then sell

If the SMA150 and the SMA200 are below the current price of $SPY and $TIP respectively, then buy.

In addition, after every buy or sell, there is a 15-day vaoldown during which no trading takes place, no matter what. You can read the strategy in full at @SemiGrowth. There everything is written down in detail with backtests etc.

In short, with this strategy you take bulish markets with you and, in the best case, leave out bearish markets completely. In the time when you have sold, you hold cash.

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Stefan@Da_Fischi

6Lun

@Laro / @Epi Ok, I'll have to take a closer look.

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Laro@Laro

6Lun

@Da_Fischi yes is really recommendable. The 2xSpytips Cool strategy is a modified version of the 2xSpytips strategy. This came from @Epi and @SemiGrowth has modified and improved it a bit, made some backtests and has been using this strategy itself for a while now.

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SemiGrowth@SemiGrowth

6Lun

@Da_Fischi yes, keeping the $CL2 blunt is really not a good idea. But the momentum factor works

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Engartner@Engartner

6Lun

@Da_Fischi Over 5 years, the return is 204%, but I agree with the assessment that it is more for risk-takers.

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Epi@Epi

6Lun

Looks good already. With your strategy diversification, you're definitely 90% ahead of the Qins. 👍

Two comments:
1. $O doesn't really fit into the ETF strategy as a single stock. Different risk profile, no diversification in REITS. Why not 30% in an EM dividend ETF? $SEDY? You kill two birds with one stone: EM + high divis.

2. in your 2xSpytips interpretation you are betting on St. Amumbo. But this is not currency-hedged, i.e. here you are exposed to currency fluctuations with double leverage. That would be too tricky and too expensive for me, and I don't do it either. I prefer $DBPG. You can see what I mean from the YTD performance.

Otherwise, good luck!

And always remember: consistency brings success. If a strategy doesn't perform well for a while, it helps to look at the past to see that this is normal and will be replaced by better periods. 👍

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Laro@Laro

6Lun

@Epi Thank you for your feedback 😊.
As I already had $O and couldn't part with this share 😅 I decided to go in this direction. It's also doing quite well at the moment. So from my old portfolio I picked out the 3 that performed best, i.e. were clearly in the black. I kept $BTC because SemiGrowth advised me not to sell it. That's why I doubled the budget there again. And I also increased Realtiy Income by another 5%. The rest was taken over 1:1 from the old portfolio.

I sold 9 assets today, which really took a bit of a hit with a fee of €1 per sale. But I have confidence in both strategies and am confident that this minus will soon be gone 😊.

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SemiGrowth@SemiGrowth

@Epi Do you have any information on hedging $DBPG? According to my research, it is no longer hedged. According to my software, an SP500 should have run 27% (instead of 11%) twice in the annual period.

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Epi@Epi

@SemiGrowth Have you considered the leverage decay effect of factor ETFs? The unhedged $CL2 looks even more pathetic.

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SemiGrowth@SemiGrowth

@Epi my software is correct (it is even conservative with 3.5% financing costs. Of course I pay attention to the decay, I'm not a beginner xD.
according to s&p the index has even made 28.5%.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/other-strategies/sp-500-2x-leverage-daily-index/#overview

That's why I don't really understand the performance difference to be honest. The $CL2 is of course on the msci usa but performs almost identically. The index has risen by 29.5%:
https://www.onvista.de/index/MSCI-USA-LEVERAGED-2X-DAILY-SHLE-UHD-Index-153374632
Both are not hedged. But I thought the $DBPG was hedged or did I just imagine that?
If not, then the difference between the ETFs is inexplicable to me.
The FX fluctuations are double weighted, so the 12% is roughly 24% (which should put us somewhere around +5%, i.e. exactly between the $CL2 and $DBPG )

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SemiGrowth@SemiGrowth

@Epi ahh, I found out. The fund currency is EUR at $CL2. But what exactly does that mean? Both have performed significantly worse (than a hedged index).
Is the difference that with $DBPG you only have one currency in it (fund currency to buy currency) but with $CL2 twice (the leverage within the fund)?

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Epi@Epi

@SemiGrowth Yes, that's how I would explain it: in $CL2 the USD is also leveraged.

That's what made the Amumbo so popular over the years (it's gone quiet now 😬): USD and S&P500 have often moved inversely, so the drawdown was below average and so was the leverage decay effect.

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