$PANW (-6,9 %) Palo Alto Networks (100x @ 136,32€ new purchase)
My conviction pick of the month.
PANW is -31% from the high, near the 52-week low and the CEO bought $10m of his own shares on 3/27. First open-market purchase since 2019, which is no coincidence.
My thesis: In a world with an active US-Iran cyber war, escalating nation-state attacks and exploding AI agent attack surface, cybersecurity is critical infrastructure.
PANW is the leading platform with $11.3B revenue guidance (+22%), 38-39% FCF margin and $18.7B Remaining Performance Obligations. The CyberArk integration ($25B) is squeezing margins in the short term, which is exactly what creates the entry point.
$MSFT (-0,97 %) Microsoft (20x @ 317,60€ buy)
MSFT trades at ~23x forward P/E, the cheapest level since early 2023.
Azure is growing 39% at $75B+ run-rate, $625B Commercial RPO (+110% YoY), and 53 of 53 analysts rate Buy. The selloff after the January earnings (-31% from ATH) was an overreaction to the capex jump. Today's AI infrastructure spending is tomorrow's revenue and that is already contracted.
MSFT remains my A-tier big tech pick and the enterprise cloud backbone of a world where data sovereignty matters.
$NTR (+0,95 %) (100x @ €65.88 re-buy)
Nutrien is the world's largest potash producer from Canada, my A-tier country. Potash has no substitute, it's as essential as oil.
FY2025: $2.3B net profit (+200%), record potash sales of 14.25Mt, EBITDA +13%. And the share price is close to a multi-year low with ~4.5% dividend yield. The Hormuz closure threatens fertilizer supply chains from the Middle East. Nutrien operates completely isolated from it. Zeihan calls food security one of the three pillars of national resilience.
$CSG (-8,98 %) CSG N.V. (500x @ €23.29 buy)
Conviction buy into my core European defense position.
With the current order pipeline and European defense budgets serious for the first time since the Cold War, CSG remains one of the most undervalued European defense plays for me.
JPM takes a similar view.
Rating: Overweight, target price €40 (Dec. 2027).
What did you treat your portfolio to in March? 😬👍
