1Semana·

Teleperformance. Entry opportunity or wait and see?

$TEP (+5 %) looks undervalued to me at the moment. Profits are stable and rising slightly, the share price has been beaten up properly. Which now leads to a nice dividend yield of 7+% with a historically good performance, also well covered by the CF.

If you look at the adjusted profit, the P/E ratio (price/earnings ratio) is 4.20 which is 14.02 points below the historical average of 18.22 for the last 10 years.

13 analysts see price targets between €50 and €140, with an average of €78.54

https://aktienfinder.net/aktien-profil/Teleperformance-Aktie

After Citigroup and Morgan Stanley lowered their price targets at the end of March, the share fell to its lowest value (€ 46.14) in the following days. It has recovered slightly since then.

Today is the sales and revenue call. A good opportunity?

@investron
@Tenbagger2024
@Aktienhauptmeister
@Raketentoni

Edit: Price € 54.72 on 28.04.2026, 2 p.m.

17 Comentarios

Raketentoni@Raketentoni

1Semana

**First of all: Cool question! Mr. Prompt has booted up the setup for an ice-cold AOK fact check ** ☕

I love it when people come around the corner with concrete figures and their own assumptions. It shows that real substance is being built up here in the forum.

Let's take a look at Teleperformance ($TEP). A French titan in the field of business process outsourcing (BPO) and call centers that has been selling off heavily for months. Your colleague wonders: entry opportunity or wait and see?
Let's pull out the AOK machinery and run the story through our **quality dumbbell filter** (as of April 28, 2026
### The ice-cold AOK fact check for Teleperformance
Your colleague's assumption regarding the undervaluation (historical P/E ratio) is correct. But we don't just want to compare historical P/E ratios, we want to measure *current, operational quality* to see if it's a bargain - or a trap.
#### 1. Core Quality Formula (The Quality Check)

**We use Teleperformance's forecast operating margin (Recurring EBITA margin) for 2025 here, as it better reflects the current operating reality than outdated TTM values.
**Revenue growth (LFL 2025 forecast):** Teleperformance is struggling. Organic growth (like-for-like) is forecast to be only between **+1.0% and +2.0%** in 2025. This is puny and not a sign of a dynamic compounder.
** **Operating margin ( Recurring EBITA 2025 forecast):** This is where the substance lies. The margin is stable at between **14.7% and 15.0%**. This is rock solid for a personnel service provider/BPO provider.
* **Score:** 2.0 + 15.0 = \mathbf{17.0 \text{ points}}
** **Judgement:** **Fails.** Our hurdle for a "Good" is 25 points. At 17 points, Teleperformance is well below this. The operating business is reliable, but the lack of growth drags the score down. It is a "Moderate" quality score.
#### 2. Cashflow Quality Formula (The Cash Machine)
We check whether the profit exists only on paper or is hard cash. Teleperformance has made acquisitions in 2025 (like Majorel), which distorts the classic FCF. We look at the ability to generate cash.
**Free cash flow forecast (2025):** Teleperformance forecasts FCF of around **EUR 900m** (adjusted). That is brute cash power.
* FCF yield:** With a market capitalization of around EUR 5.1 billion, the cash flow yield is currently around **~ 17.5%**.
** **Judgement:** > 5.0% = **"Very attractive "**. Teleperformance is an absolute cash machine in operational terms. They convert almost every euro of profit into hard cash. That is the absolute substance of the share.
#### 3. Dividend Filter (Income-Core)
(as your colleague correctly calculated, based on the distribution of EUR 5.73 for 2024).
**Sustainability:** The payout ratio (payout ratio) is a relaxed approx. 45% of adjusted earnings. Due to the brutal cash flow (EUR 900m FCF vs. approx. EUR 340m dividend amount), the dividend is **double and triple sustainably covered**.
** **Judgement:** > 3.5 % = **"Check "**. A perfect match for our *income core*.
#### 4. The exclusion rule (the knock-out criterion - the AI shock)🚩
Teleperformance's business model (call center, personnel services) is seen by the market as extremely endangered by **generative AI (GenAI)**.
* **Colleague's assumption:** AI replacing the model is *the* reason for the share price crash. If bots solve 80% of simple queries (basic inquiry), teleperformance needs fewer staff.
** **The operational reality (as of 2026):** Teleperformance has reacted to this. They are massively implementing AI ("human-in-the-loop" model) to increase agent efficiency by 25%. They are shifting the business away from pure "volume-based" services to more valuable "consulting" and "trust & safety" tasks. The knockout criterion ("model becomes obsolete") is not yet met today, as AI is a *leverage* rather than a full replacement, but the *fear of it* is the biggest risk to the stock.
#### 5. Bargain Hunter's List (The entry zones)
**Strong Buy (Bunker Price):** < 48.00 EUR (The Crisis Low). Here the market is fully pricing in the AI crash.
** **Fair entry (income security):** **55.00 - 65.00 EUR**. At this level you get a cash flow yield of over 20% and a dividend yield that pays you for waiting.
### Mr. Prompt's final verdict: An income core with dumbbell potential
Let's answer your colleague's question honestly:
**Income core or wait and see? 👉 It's a prime entry opportunity for an INCOME INVESTOR.
We don't need to value Teleperformance on the *core quality* (sales+margin) that we look for in a Scandinavian compounder like Novo or Alfa Laval. Teleperformance is no longer a growth stock. They are a **value and income specialist**.
Here's the story for the portfolio: you buy an operating cash machine (17.5% FCF yield) that doubles and triples your dividend (7.0%). You get paid to wait.
**The dumbbell potential:** You buy this stock at an extremely cheap price because the market is panicking about AI. Your colleague's guess is the biggest red-flag, but it's *the reason* for the low price. If Teleperformance proves that AI makes their agents more efficient instead of replacing them, and they can maintain margins, then there is massive upside potential here (arithmetic P/E from 4x to 8x or 10x).
**Conclusion:** If he is looking for a defensive income fund and ice coldly interprets the AI risk as "Priced for Perfection" (i.e. price reflects worst case scenario), he can put a first tranche here. For cash flow hunters, this thing is an absolute dream. But it is **not** an AOK quality stock, but a cash flow monopoly with a big risk question mark.

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Keineui@Keineui

1Semana

@Raketentoni Cool analysis, thanks. I think I'll wait for the earnings call and then consider a staggered entry.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

1Semana

@Keineui sorry if the formatting is not 100%, I'm on the road today 😬

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Serkan@CashflowPrince

1Semana

@Raketentoni Mega analysis, I already have it in my portfolio because of the dividend. But will continue to buy.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

1Semana

@CashflowPrince unfortunately nothing for my strategy, because for my dumbbell strategy this is just the boring middle 😬 but for others certainly a great stock 🤷

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

1Semana

@Keineui Yes, first a small foot in the door. If it goes up, you're in and if it goes down, the loss isn't as big. I always do the same, if I want to invest €5000, I buy in for 2000 and then look again for 2 x 1500 🤷

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Semana

Juan put the share on my desk months ago due to the combination of low valuation and earnings growth. However, it remained there due to the lack of momentum. But slowly the bottom seems to be forming

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Semana

Thanks for tagging me dear. And here is Jack's analysis

Noui my dear, you knocked on my door? apparently you're keen on my Sense🗡️

The diagnosis: You suffer from mean reversion bias. You think TEP is going back to its old PER of 18 just because it used to be there. Spoiler: It won't.
Why your analysis is a trap:

1. the P/E fairy tale: A P/E ratio of 4.2 is not cheap for a "melting ice cube" (a melting business model), it's fair. The market is pricing in that profits will collapse massively in 5 years due to AI automation.

2. the dividend trap: 7% yield is pain and suffering for the risk you are taking. If the ROIC (return on investment) falls further below the cost of capital (WACC), the company is burning substance. Then the dividend is gone faster than you can say "turnaround".

3. the analyst illusion: the share price targets of €140 are based on models that ignore the extent of AI disruption. Anyone still arguing today with "historically good development" is ignoring the structural disruption of 2023.

⚡Reaper verdict:
Teleperformance is like a horse-drawn carriage in 1910: the balance sheet may still be clean, but the internal combustion engine (AI) has just started mass production.

Conclusion for you:
- Hands off.
- Stop chasing cheap P/E ratios. Quality costs money, but junk costs you your portfolio.

Status: Crap
Reaper score: 2/10

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Keineui@Keineui

1Semana

@Aktienhauptmeister Cool analysis, thank you!
Sounds bad at first. But if profits continue to grow slightly, I don't yet see the worst-case scenario you describe. Nobody knows what the world will look like in 5 years anyway. I would agree with you about the current developments regarding AI. But as long as the company shows profit growth with a good margin, you can still ride the horse, don't you think?
Cool analysis, thank you!

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Semana

@Keineui But I also have to say that my prompt is not focused on such dividend stocks. My prompt is geared towards pure growth, so it is possible that there are deviations in some key figures and that my prompt completely breaks down the company accordingly.

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Keineui@Keineui

1Semana

@Aktienhauptmeister It fits, as you can see. Mr. Prompt from @Raketentoni doesn't shoot them down so completely. Besides, these are just "opinions", but they help me to question my own and make a final judgment.
At the moment I tend to wait. Because I also achieve the dividend yield with other stocks, and I would also like to take share price growth with me if I were to get in.

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Invest2impress@Invest2impress

1Semana

@Aktienhauptmeister I think @Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin has said it somewhere before and I have to say that your prompt is definitely very strong on the road! Maybe you'll introduce Jack to us sometime 👀 Great prompt, I'm thrilled 👏

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Semana

@Invest2impress thank you thank you for the kind words 😁 is worth considering introducing him at some point 😬

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Hans B.@user0f2ae517adeb400c

1Semana

was also a shareholder until 2 years ago, the question is whether the business model will not be 100% disrupted by AI and the market probably sees a very high probability that companies will have their customer service/1st level support done by an AI agent in the future and no longer by $TEP

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Kini - Dividend Strategy@investron

1Semana

Hi @Keineui !
thanks for the tag. no metaphors from me, just the raw math from my algorithm.

quadrant: 🟠 caution
• quality score: 40/100 (structural risk)
• opportunity score: 75/100 (visually extremely cheap)
• yield: 8.36% (fcf payout at just 17.3%)
• p/e: 6.4x

the bulls are mathematically right: the cash flow coverage is undeniably massive.
the bears are also right: the 5-year eps cagr is negative (-2.1%), meaning fundamental earnings are eroding.

my system specifically hunts for "temporary problems" (like we saw recently with $EDEN or $O ) to buy the dip. however, the algorithm flags the ai risk for $TEP not as "temporary", but as a "permanent" structural threat to a labor-intensive bpo model.

The business lacks the monopolistic hard assets, captive customer bases, or regulatory moats required by conservative dividend strategies.

whoever buys here isn't building a defensive income architecture; they are betting on a deep-value turnaround. for a strict dividend-growth portfolio, $TEP fails the quality filter. 🤜🤛

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Keineui@Keineui

1Semana

@investron great insight, thank you!

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Keineui@Keineui

1Semana

The Q1 figures were published yesterday. -2.2% and -6.4% in the Core Services division. In addition, there was further staff rotation and now a new head is to bring momentum to the topic of AI. All in all, not so great and I remain on the sidelines. I don't see any potential here in the short term.

https://de.marketscreener.com/boerse-nachrichten/teleperformance-strebt-fuer-2026-ein-umsatzwachstum-zwischen-0-0-und-2-0-an-ce7f59d2dc8afe27

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