Can conclusions be drawn from the gold rally about $BTC (-2,01 %)
draw?
The recent rise in the price of gold is best interpreted as a signal of falling confidence in real yields, fiscal discipline and the credibility of monetary policy, rather than as a direct forecast for the price trend of $BTC (-2,01 %). It was an important component of the "devaluation trade". Historically, the strength of gold often precedes the strength of $BTC (-2,01 %) often precedes and does not coincide with it, especially in cycles where liquidity first becomes scarce and then eases again. Gold tends to move earlier as it is already embedded in portfolios as a hedge. $BTC (-2,01 %) Gold usually lags behind until liquidity conditions stabilize or political reactions set in. The more gold outperforms equities and real interest rates fall or become politically constrained, the more favorable the medium-term environment becomes for #bitcoin. In environments where #gold rises due to pure risk aversion $BTC (-2,01 %) However, despite the common narrative, gold may underperform.
Does gold benefit from the rise of the $BTC (-2,01 %)
or vice versa?
There is little evidence of a stable zero-sum relationship between the two. Gold and $BTC (-2,01 %) react to the same macroeconomic pressures rather than to each other. In times characterized by currency debasement, fiscal dominance or declining institutional credibility, both can benefit simultaneously as they are positioned as non-governmental stores of value. The rise of $BTC (-2,01 %) has not significantly affected the role of gold as a reserve currency, and gold has not limited the acceptance of $BTC (-2,01 %) gold, although in recent years we have seen investors diversify their diversification instruments by adding gold as both a $BTC (-2,01 %) as a hedge against tail risks. The difference between the two lies in liquidity preference. In acute risk aversion phases, gold is often accumulated first as it sits within existing institutional mandates and balance sheets, while $BTC (-2,01 %) tends to be sold first due to its higher volatility and leverage in the system. Over time, as stress persists and confidence in the political environment wanes, gold can attract additional capital flows that $BTC (-2,01 %) may attract additional capital flows that are already structurally captured by gold.
